超级厄尔尼诺即将引发天气巨变。现在就做好准备。今年3月，卫星传感器开始探测到一股巨大的波动沿赤道向东传播，位于太平洋海面以下。当它向南美洲海岸移动时，海水水位和温度随之上升，其上方的空气也被加热并增湿。雷暴云团拔地而起，在大气中激起大范围的涟漪。这些涟漪很快扩散到全球，开始改变气温、降雨以及天气系统的移动。
The Super El Niño Is About to Unleash Weather Chaos. Get Ready Now. In March, satellite sensors began to detect an enormous wave traveling east along the Equator below the surface of the Pacific Ocean. As it moved toward the coast of South America, the wave pushed up the height and temperature of the sea while heating and wetting the air above. Towering thunderstorms developed, producing large-scale ripples in the atmosphere. The ripples soon spread around the planet and began altering temperature, rainfall and the movement of storm systems.
这股巨波催生的厄尔尼诺，已使赤道太平洋中部和东部部分海域的温度比平均水平高出3摄氏度以上。预测显示，这种每隔几年便会发生一次的自然气候现象——厄尔尼诺，在今年剩余时间维持强劲状态的概率超过80%，并且可能成为有记录以来最强的一次。
The El Niño spawned by that colossal wave has since warmed a portion of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean more than 3 degrees Celsius above its average. Forecasts indicate a greater than 80 percent chance that this El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon that occurs every few years, will remain very strong for the rest of the year and may become the strongest on record.
全球各地共有20多个机构的气候模式对厄尔尼诺状况进行预测，而这些模式往往意见不一。然而今年，各模式的预测比以往任何时候都更加一致，均认为厄尔尼诺状况将持续到2026年底。这种高度确定性意味着，许多预期影响——包括部分地区的强降雨、其他地区的干旱和野火，以及全球变暖加剧——都很可能发生。
There are more than two dozen climate models from agencies around the world that forecast El Niño conditions, and they often don’t agree. But this year they are more aligned than ever before in predicting that El Niño conditions will last through the end of 2026. This high level of certainty means that many of the expected impacts — intense rainfall in some regions, drought and wildfire in others and an increase in global warming — are very likely to occur.
这也意味着，各国政府、企业和社区可以凭借这一异常清晰的科学预判提前做好准备。现在仍有余时间。
It also means that governments, businesses and communities can benefit from this unusually clear scientific foresight. There is still time to get ready.
根据以往厄尔尼诺现象的表现，我们已经知道许多可能的结果。南部非洲和印度更可能出现降雨减少和干旱，这可能使粮食供应承压，并扰乱水力发电。印度尼西亚的干燥天气已经引发野火，而且这种风险很可能会持续下去。即将到来的南半球夏季正值北半球的冬季，可能非常炎热，澳大利亚和巴西部分地区出现热浪的可能性也会升高。
We know from past El Niños many of the probable outcomes. Southern Africa and India are more likely to experience reduced rainfall and drought that may strain food supplies and disrupt hydropower generation. Dry conditions over Indonesia have already led to wildfires, and this risk will most likely persist. The coming summer for the Southern Hemisphere, during our winter, may be very hot, with an elevated chance of heat waves for Australia and parts of Brazil.
肯尼亚、中国东部和美国南部等地区，降雨量更可能高于平均水平。目前的预测显示，10月至12月美国东南部部分地区降水量高于正常水平的可能性超过70%，这将增加洪水和山体滑坡的风险。
Other areas, such as Kenya, eastern China and the southern United States, are more likely to experience more rain than average. Current forecasts predict a more than 70 percent chance that precipitation will be above normal over sections of the southeastern United States from October to December, increasing the risk of flooding and landslides.