阿比谢克·维什诺伊报道：全球基金经理正在逐步结束对中国股票长达数年的减持，人工智能的前景和具有吸引力的估值成为吸引他们回归的驱动力。
By Abhishek Vishnoi Global fund managers are dialing back their long-running retreat from Chinese stocks, drawn by AI prospects and favorable valuations.
根据美国银行策略师奈杰尔·塔珀的分析，在该行研究的近2800只全球基金中，主动型纯多头基金自6月起平均已将中国股票的配置权重调整至“基准中性”水平，结束了连续四年的“低配”状态。这些基金合计管理着5620亿美元的中国股票资产。
Of nearly 2,800 global funds analyzed by Bank of America, active long-only funds have, on average, moved to a “benchmark-neutral” weighting on China starting June, ending a four-year run of being “underweight,” according to its strategist Nigel Tupper. The funds collectively manage $562 billion in Chinese stocks.
这一转变表明，基金管理人受到人工智能等增长板块估值吸引力和盈利前景改善的鼓舞。虽然这未必意味着市场全面转向看涨，但表明管理人已基本停止削减敞口，从而消除了市场复苏的一大障碍。
The shift shows funds are encouraged by attractive valuations and improving profit outlooks in growth sectors like artificial intelligence. While it doesn’t necessarily signal a broad bullish turn, it indicates managers are largely done cutting their exposure, removing a major hurdle for the market’s recovery.
Allspring Global Investments的投资组合经理Gary Tan表示：“卖压正接近底部，投资者的关注点正从仓位配置转向业绩兑现。”他补充称，其公司正在有选择地增持中国股票。“中国股市环境的改善并不需要全球投资者彻底转为看涨，他们只需停止削减敞口即可。”其他资金流向数据也指向类似方向。根据彭博智讯的数据，专注于中国和香港的交易所交易基金在8月录得1900万美元的净流入，而7月则出现了19.4亿美元的净流出。与此同时，剔除中国的新兴市场基金流出量正在上升。
“Selling pressure is nearing a floor, shifting investor focus from positioning to earnings delivery,” Gary Tan, a portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, said, adding his firm is selectively adding Chinese stocks. “China does not need global investors to turn outright bullish for the market backdrop to improve; it may simply need them to stop cutting exposure.”Other flow data point to a similar direction. Exchange-traded funds focused on China and Hong Kong drew $19 million in August after $1.94 billion of outflows in July, according to Bloomberg Intelligence’s data. Meanwhile, outflows from emerging-market funds that exclude China have been rising.
彭博智讯分析师Rebecca Sin表示：“在主要新兴市场中，中国经历了最剧烈的配置削减，其系统性ETF的低配状态可能已接近底部。”“导致中国股票被低配的因素已开始失去动能。”
“China’s systematic ETF underweight is likely approaching a floor after the sharpest allocation reduction among major emerging markets,” said BI analyst Rebecca Sin. “The forces creating China’s underweight have started to lose momentum.”
估值因素可能也在发挥作用。MSCI中国指数目前交易价格约为12个月预期盈利的10.2倍，低于其10年平均值11.7倍。
Valuations may be helping. The MSCI China Index is trading at about 10.2 times 12-month forward earnings, below its 10-year average of 11.7 times.
投资者还发现，与北京技术雄心相关的市场板块盈利正在改善。据《上海证券报》报道，上海上市公司上半年净利润增长17.6%，由科技硬件和新经济公司带动，尽管房地产和消费行业表现滞后。
Investors are also finding improving earnings in parts of the market tied to Beijing’s technology ambitions. Shanghai-listed companies posted a 17.6% rise in first-half net income, according to Shanghai Securities News, driven by tech hardware and new-economy companies even as property and consumer industries lagged.
这种分化也意味着中国市场的复苏依然不均衡。沪深300指数本季度下跌约11%，投资者在资金投向上依然保持挑剔。
That divergence also means China’s market recovery remains uneven. The CSI 300 has fallen about 11% this quarter, and investors remain selective about where they put money.
“你买的是中国的未来，”汇丰控股亚太区股票策略主管赫德·范德林德表示，他提到硬件技术和生物制药为首选板块。消费行业和房地产是“中国的过去”。
“You buy the future of China,” Herald van der Linde, head of equity strategy for Asia Pacific at HSBC Holdings Plc, said, citing hardware technology and biopharma as preferred sectors. Consumer industries and real estate are “the past of China.”