伊斯坦布尔——今年，乌克兰无人机多次袭击黑海码头和油轮后，哈萨克斯坦的石油巨头正在对一条绕过俄罗斯的跨里海出口路线进行可行性研究。
ISTANBUL -- Oil majors in Kazakhstan are conducting a feasibility study for a trans-Caspian export route to bypass Russia after Ukrainian drones repeatedly attacked a Black Sea terminal and tankers this year.
哈萨克斯坦超过80%的石油出口——该国经济的命脉——通过里海管道联盟（CPC）线路运输。这条管道经俄罗斯通往黑海，进而输往欧洲，欧洲是哈萨克斯坦最大的石油市场。然而，由于乌克兰无人机今年多次袭击俄罗斯新罗西斯克附近的码头及油轮，CPC管道曾多次中断，导致哈萨克斯坦生产商削减产量。
More than 80% of Kazakh oil exports, the economy's lifeblood, is transported via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) line. This pipeline runs through Russia to the Black Sea and onward to Europe, by far Kazakhstan's largest oil market. The CPC, however, has been knocked offline at times this year after Ukrainian drone attacks on the terminal near Novorossiysk, Russia, and on oil tankers, leading Kazakh producers to cut output.
哈萨克斯坦国家石油公司KazMunayGas上月表示，石油生产商目前正在为一条避开俄罗斯的路线准备可行性研究。该路线将从哈萨克斯坦石油枢纽阿特劳延伸至阿克套港，再穿越里海抵达阿塞拜疆的巴库。从巴库出发，预计将通过既有路线，经格鲁吉亚第比利斯和土耳其地中海沿岸的杰伊汉港进行运输。
The oil producers are now preparing a feasibility study for a route away from Russia that will run from Kazakhstan's oil hub of Atyrau to its port of Aktau and through the Caspian Sea to Baku in Azerbaijan, national oil company KazMunayGas said last month. From Baku, supplies are expected to be transported via the established route through Tbilisi, Georgia, and Ceyhan, Turkey, on the Mediterranean Sea.
一位消息人士向《日经亚洲》透露，里海段正在考虑两种方案：海底管道或规模更大的油轮船队。两种方案的总运力均可达每年3500万公吨，相当于哈萨克斯坦通过CPC运输量的一半以上，且是现有里海运输量的近30倍。
A source told Nikkei Asia that two options are being considered for the Caspian crossing: a subsea pipeline or a much larger tanker fleet. Both options will have total capacity of up to 35 million metric tons a year, which equates to more than half of what Kazakhstan ships through CPC and nearly 30 times what it ships over the Caspian now.
哈萨克斯坦石油行业智库“能源监测基金”执行董事努尔兰·朱马古洛夫表示：“但需要注意的是，这将是一条成本高昂的路线。”正在考虑中的新路线将把产品从阿特劳转移至阿克套和巴库。
"But it is important to note that this will be an expensive route," said Nurlan Zhumagulov, executive director of the Energy Monitor Fund, a Kazakh oil-sector think tank. The new route under consideration will shift product from Atyrau to Aktau and Baku.
由哈萨克斯坦最大油田田吉兹和卡沙甘的八家股东公司组成的工作组共同委托开展了这项研究。田吉兹油田主要由雪佛龙和埃克森美孚控股，而卡沙甘油田的主要股东包括KazMunayGas、埃尼、埃克森美孚、壳牌和道达尔能源。
A working group involving eight shareholder companies in Kazakhstan's largest oil fields at Tengiz and Kashagan jointly commissioned the study. Tengiz is majority-owned by Chevron and ExxonMobil, while Kashagan's biggest shareholders include KazMunayGas, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies.
朱马古洛夫表示，研究结果将于11月提交给股东，届时他们将共同决定是否继续推进。管道方案的建设可能需要数年时间。
The results of the study will be presented to shareholders in November, after which they will decide together whether to proceed, Zhumagulov said. The pipeline option would be years in the making.
但哈萨克斯坦业界认为，寻找替代方案是必要的。在雪佛龙公司完成对田吉兹（Tengiz）最大油田480亿美元的扩建项目后，哈萨克斯坦的产能有所提升。据称，该项目每年可增加约1200万吨产能，使该油田的日产量达到约100万桶油当量。几乎所有这些石油都通过里海管道联盟（CPC）外运，而其他任何路线都无法承担这些产量的一小部分。
But the Kazakh industry sees the search for alternatives as necessary. Kazakhstan's capacity has increased after Chevron completed a $48 billion expansion of the largest oil field at Tengiz, which it claims can add about 12 million tons of annual capacity, taking the field to around 1 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. Nearly all of that oil leaves through CPC and no other route can take more than a fraction of those volumes.
7月份，针对油轮的无人机袭击导致CPC码头的装载工作中断。据哈萨克斯坦官方通讯社哈通社报道，加上1月和6月的中断，哈萨克斯坦今年的总产量减少了350万吨。这迫使哈萨克斯坦将其2026年的产量目标下调至9600万吨，低于去年的9960万吨纪录。
Drone strikes on tankers halted loadings at the CPC terminal in July. Adding disruptions in January and June, Kazakhstan's total output was down by 3.5 million tons this year, official news agency Kazinform reported. This forced Kazakhstan to cut its 2026 target to 96 million tons, below last year's record 99.6 million.
据标普全球大宗商品洞察（S&P Global Commodity Insights）数据显示，在华盛顿就袭击事件与基辅进行交涉后，CPC码头的装载量有所恢复，8月3日当周的日装载量增长了22%，达到141万桶。雪佛龙首席执行官迈克·沃思（Mike Wirth）在9月11日表示，中断情况已经缓解。
Loadings at the CPC terminal recovered after Washington raised the attacks with Kyiv, increasing 22% to 1.41 million barrels a day in the week from Aug. 3, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said on Sept. 11 that disruptions had eased.
特朗普政府目前正在推动基辅和莫斯科停止对能源基础设施的袭击。9月22日在联合国大会期间会见特朗普后，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基表示，如果俄罗斯停止攻击其能源系统，乌克兰“准备好进行任何形式的能源停火”，华盛顿将把该提议转达给莫斯科。克里姆林宫方面则表示，任何休战协议都必须确保油轮的航行安全。
The Trump administration is now pushing Kyiv and Moscow to halt strikes on energy infrastructure. After meeting Trump at the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 22, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine was "ready for any kind of format of energy ceasefire" if Russia stopped attacking its energy system, and that Washington would pass the proposal to Moscow. The Kremlin has said any truce must ensure safe shipping for oil tankers.
乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基于9月22日在联合国大会期间会见了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普，双方讨论了乌克兰与俄罗斯之间的能源停火问题。
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met U.S. President Donald Trump at the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 22, during which they discussed an energy ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.
哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心全球研究员塔季扬娜·米特罗娃表示，外交手段或许能保护中哈输油管道（CPC）的终端设施，但不一定能保护为其服务的船只。
Diplomacy may spare the CPC terminal but not necessarily the ships that serve it, said Tatiana Mitrova, a global fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy.
她表示：“附近的战斗可能导致船东推迟到港，或运营商出于安全考虑暂停装载。即使CPC本身未受波及，这也可能中断出口。”2024年，哈萨克斯坦是欧盟第三大原油供应国，供应量达5240万吨。波兰国有能源巨头欧伦（Orlen）本月寻求采购哈萨克斯坦原油，以替代因无人机袭击而中断的沙特供应。哈萨克斯坦的主要出口原油等级“CPC混合原油”在位于俄罗斯境内的该财团终端进行装载。
"Nearby fighting could lead shipowners to delay arrivals or operators to pause loading for safety," she said. "That can interrupt exports even if CPC itself is untouched." Kazakhstan was the European Union's third-largest crude supplier in 2024, at 52.4 million tons, and Polish state-run energy leader Orlen sought Kazakh barrels this month to replace Saudi deliveries disrupted by a drone attack. CPC Blend, Kazakhstan's main export grade, loads at the consortium's terminal in Russia.
总部位于阿斯塔纳的油气咨询公司Energy Analytics创始人兼首席执行官阿布扎尔·纳里姆贝托夫表示，石油和天然气约占哈萨克斯坦预算收入的一半，以及出口收入的60%。他说，CPC是哈萨克斯坦的“阿喀琉斯之踵”。“如果没有CPC——我们希望这种情况不会发生——经济将彻底崩溃。”朱马古洛夫表示，如果CPC再次停运，哈萨克斯坦能临时通过铁路或港口改道的石油量约为每月10万吨，这甚至不足田吉兹油田一天产量的水平。
Oil and gas provide about half of Kazakhstan's budget revenues and around 60% of its export earnings, said Abzal Narymbetov, founder and CEO of Energy Analytics, an Astana-based oil and gas consultancy. CPC is Kazakhstan's "Achilles' heel," he said. "Without CPC, and we hope that won't happen, the economy would simply collapse." If CPC stops again, the oil Kazakhstan can divert at short notice by rail or through ports, about 100,000 tons a month, would cover less than a day of Tengiz output, Zhumagulov said.
纳里姆贝托夫指出，由于没有管道将田吉兹和卡沙甘油田连接至港口，来自这两个油田的石油需通过铁路运至阿克套。
Oil from Tengiz and Kashagan reaches Aktau by rail because no pipeline links the fields to the port, Narymbetov said.
他说：“每节油罐车装载60吨，而CPC的年输送量超过6000万吨。想象一下你需要多少节车厢。”2022年，俄罗斯法院下令暂停CPC运营（该裁决后来被推翻），哈萨克斯坦总统卡西姆-若马尔特·托卡耶夫随后下令增加通过巴库-第比利斯-杰伊汉（BTC）管道的跨里海走廊石油运输量。四年过去了，哈萨克斯坦能源部告诉《日经亚洲》，哈萨克斯坦目前每年通过阿塞拜疆的BTC管道输送约120万吨石油，不到其CPC运输量的2%。叶夫根尼娅·米哈伊利迪是特约撰稿人。
"Each tank car holds 60 tons, and CPC carries more than 60 million tons a year," he said. "Imagine how many wagons you would need." President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev ordered Kazakhstan to increase oil shipments along the Trans-Caspian Corridor via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) in 2022 after a Russian court ordered CPC suspended in a ruling later overturned. Four years on, Kazakhstan ships about 1.2 million tons a year through Azerbaijan's BTC pipeline, the Energy Ministry told Nikkei Asia, less than 2% of its CPC volumes. Yevgeniya Mikhailidi is a contributing writer.