– 这是CNBC财经新闻为中国中央电视台制作的2026年9月25日报道脚本。
– This is the script of CNBC's financial news report for China's CCTV on SEPTEMBER 25, 2026.
在产生一度电力时，燃烧煤炭好还是天然气好？近年来，欧洲始终青睐天然气。然而，如今这一经济账正在逆转。
When it comes to generating a single kilowatt hour of electricity, is it better to burn coal or natural gas? In recent years, Europe consistently favored natural gas. Today, however, those economics are reversing.
随着天然气价格飙升，即使算上更高的碳排放成本，在德国等欧洲主要电力市场，燃煤发电的利润已超过天然气发电。
With natural gas prices soaring, burning coal for power generation has become more profitable than natural gas in major European power markets like Germany, even after accounting for higher carbon emissions costs.
图表展示了燃煤与燃气发电各自的利润率。中东冲突爆发后，两者走势急剧分化，差距入夏后进一步扩大。燃煤发电利润稳步扩张，而燃气发电则陷入更深的负值区间。
The chart illustrates the respective profit margins for coal fired and gas fired power generation. Following the outbreak of Middle East conflicts, the two paths diverged sharply, with the gap widening further as summer arrived. Coal generation margins expanded steadily, whereas gas fired power sank deeper into negative territory.
这一转变的主要驱动力是天然气价格飙升。受中东冲突和霍尔木兹海峡液化天然气航运受阻推动，欧洲基准天然气价格本月一度突破每兆瓦时80欧元，触及三年高位。
The primary driver behind this shift is the surge in natural gas prices. Spurred by Middle East conflicts and disruptions to liquefied natural gas shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, European benchmark gas prices briefly breached 80 euros per megawatt hour this month, touching three year highs.
分析师预测，未来六个月欧洲燃煤发电量可能增加约四分之一，伴随的是燃气发电产出相应下降。然而，欧洲面临着恢复燃煤产能的严重结构性限制。
Analysts project that European coal fired power generation could increase by roughly a quarter over the next six months, accompanied by a corresponding decline in gas fired output. Yet Europe faces severe structural limits on how much additional coal capacity it can revive.
数十年的能源转型政策导致燃煤电厂大规模退役。欧盟统计局数据显示，1990年燃煤发电占欧盟总发电量的三分之一以上。到2025年，这一比例降至历史低点9.2%。在德国这个欧洲最大的电力市场和天然气消费国，第四季度燃煤发电量预计将逼近其现存机组的运行极限。
Decades of energy transition policies led to the widespread decommissioning of coal plants. Eurostat data reveals that coal generated over one third of total European Union electricity in 1990. By 2025, that share dropped to a historic low of 9.2%. In Germany, the largest power market and natural gas consumer in Europe, coal fired generation in the fourth quarter is expected to approach the operational limit of its remaining fleet.
随着天然气价格高得令人望而却步、煤电产能受限、风能和太阳能受制于间歇性，欧洲从何处寻找能够减少对化石燃料进口依赖的稳定、可调度电力？核能再次成为一个可行的答案。
With natural gas priced prohibitively high, coal capacity constrained, and wind and solar subject to intermittency, where can Europe source stable, dispatchable power that reduces reliance on fossil fuel imports? Nuclear energy is once again emerging as a viable answer.
周三，意大利参议院批准了政府重启核电的计划，为这个近四十年来无核电机组运行的国家扫清了法律障碍。除意大利外，法国也在加大对核能的押注。法国国有公用事业公司EDF宣布计划到2035年在欧盟范围内建设10座小型模块化反应堆（SMR）。然而，核电基础设施建设耗时数年，这使得欧洲通胀和近期电力安全仍易受持续不确定性的影响。
On Wednesday, the Italian Senate approved the government plan to restart nuclear power, clearing legal hurdles for a nation that operated without active nuclear power plants for nearly four decades. Beyond Italy, France is doubling down on nuclear capability. French state utility EDF announced plans to construct 10 small modular reactors, or SMRs, across the European Union by 2035. Building nuclear infrastructure takes years, however, leaving European inflation and near term power security vulnerable to ongoing uncertainty.
约阿希姆·纳格尔 德国联邦央行行长 “我认为我们处于中性区间的上限。我不会排除我们必须进入温和限制性区间的可能性，但正如我所说，这非常取决于能源价格如何演变，未来一个月左右价格形势如何演变。”
JOACHIM NAGEL President Bundesbank "I think we are at the upper bound of the neutral territory. I will not exclude that we have to go in the mild restrictive territory, but as I said, it's very much dependent on how the energy prices evolve, how the price picture is evolving over the course of maybe the next month." In an era of rapid artificial intelligence expansion, power grid stability impacts not just energy costs, inflation, and monetary policy, but stands as a vital pillar of national competitiveness. We will continue to track how the European power sector navigates these complex dynamics.
在人工智能快速扩张的时代，电网稳定性不仅影响能源成本、通胀和货币政策，更是国家竞争力的关键支柱。我们将继续追踪欧洲电力部门如何应对这些复杂动态。
JOACHIM NAGEL President Bundesbank "I think we are at the upper bound of the neutral territory. I will not exclude that we have to go in the mild restrictive territory, but as I said, it's very much dependent on how the energy prices evolve, how the price picture is evolving over the course of maybe the next month." In an era of rapid artificial intelligence expansion, power grid stability impacts not just energy costs, inflation, and monetary policy, but stands as a vital pillar of national competitiveness. We will continue to track how the European power sector navigates these complex dynamics.