作者：Matthew A. Winkler 唐纳德·特朗普总统在其第二任期开始不到一个月时对南非发起的抨击——当时他因对该国土地征用法律的可疑理解而解散了美国国际开发署（USAID）的项目——作为一个反向指标，其时机再合适不过了。
By Matthew A. Winkler President Donald Trump's diatribe against South Africa less than a month into his second term, when he dissolved United States Agency for International Development (USAID) programs over his dubious understanding of the country’s land appropriation laws, couldn't have been better timed as a contrary indicator.
在腐败加剧的数十年治理失败之后，这座“彩虹之国”正显露出兑现其作为非洲最大经济体潜力的迹象。在2024年第一季度结束前，全球债券市场——在寻找相对价值时既不带意识形态色彩也不涉及政治立场——发出了信号，预示着一种在非洲52个国家中前所未有的命运转折。
After decades of failed governance aggravated by corruption, the “ Rainbow Nation” is showing signs of fulfilling its potential as Africa’s largest economy. Before the first quarter of 2024 ended, the global bond market --- neither ideological nor political in its search for relative value -- signaled a change of fortune unlike any among Africa's 52 countries.
那时，约6500万民众即将选出自纳尔逊·曼德拉的“民族团结政府”终结种族隔离30年来的首个执政联盟。选举结果扭转了暴力犯罪率上升、因能源短缺而恶化的市政污水基础设施崩溃，以及自2017年以来兰特贬值24%的局面。
That’s when some 65 million people were poised to elect their first ruling coalition since Nelson Mandela's “government of national unity” ended apartheid 30 years earlier. The result reversed the rising rate of violent crime, the collapsing municipal sewage infrastructure exacerbated by energy shortages and the rand's 24% depreciation since 2017.
2024年大半时间里货币走强，源于对兰特计价债务证券需求的上升，这表明选民摒弃了非洲人国民大会。因此，尽管南非债券在该年第一季度下跌了5.2%，但第二季度的反弹却是空前的：以美元计价，兰特计价的政府证券上涨了12%，远超18个发展中国家的债券表现，而基准彭博新兴市场本币政府债券指数却下跌了0.2%。自2008年该指数创立以来，没有任何国家的债券表现能接近南非债券当季的表现。当时表现最好的发达国家瑞典，其债券回报率仅为3%。
A currency that strengthened for most of 2024 was the consequence of rising demand for rand-denominated debt securities, signaling voters' repudiation of the African National Congress. So although South Africa bonds lost 5.2% in the first quarter of that year, the rebound in the second quarter was unprecedented, with rand-based government securities gaining 12% when measured in US dollars, crushing the debt of 18 developing nations as the benchmark Bloomberg Emerging Market Local Currency Government Bond Index declined 0.2%. No country has come close to matching the performance of South Africa’s bonds that quarter since the index was created in 2008. The debt of Sweden, the best-performing developed country at the time, returned 3%.
2024年6月，由非国大和亲商业的民主联盟组建的政府“对于引导南非避免一场经济灾难性、种族极化、民粹主义的未来至关重要，如果非国大与前总统祖马的‘民族之矛党’或朱利叶斯·马莱马的‘经济自由战士党’结盟，就会出现这种未来”，政治分析师贾斯蒂斯·马拉拉在彭博社观点专栏中写道。“面临崩溃边缘，该国或许再次挫败了悲观论者的预言，开辟出一条中间派的前进道路。”尽管仍处于高位，但官方统计数据确实显示，包括谋杀、劫车、住宅和商业抢劫在内的主要暴力犯罪有所下降。
A government combining the ANC and pro-business Democratic Alliance Party in June 2024 “was necessary to steer South Africa away from the economically disastrous, racially polarized, populist future that would have resulted if the ANC joined up with former President Jacob Zuma’s MK Party or Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters,” political analyst Justice Malala wrote in a column for Bloomberg Opinion. “Faced with implosion, the country has perhaps once again defied the doomsayers and fashioned a centrist path ahead.” Although still high, official statistics do show a decline in major violent crime, including murders, carjackings and residential and business robberies.
这一转折点经受住了考验。自2024年以来，南非政府发行的债券获得了（收益加价格升值），在彭博新兴市场本地政府债券指数的所有发行人中表现最佳，总回报几乎是基准的五倍。排名第二的哥伦比亚远远落后百分点。兰特表现强劲，兑美元升值，在全球16种交易最活跃的货币中涨幅居首。挪威克朗上涨，是最接近的追随者。
The turning point proved resilient. Debt sold by the South African government reaped (income plus price appreciation) since 2024, the most of any issuer in the Bloomberg Emerging Market Local Government Bond Index and almost five times the total return of the benchmark. No. 2 Colombia is a distantpercentage points behind. The rand is a world beater, appreciating against the US dollar, the best among 16 of the world’s most-traded currencies. Norway's krone gained , the closest laggard.
资金流向显示，投资者预期兰特的市场波动将减少，根据彭博汇编的数据，其三个月隐含波动率比2024年低四，为15种主要货币中降幅最大（三个月隐含波动率衡量的是对一种货币在随后一个季度内波动程度的押注）。
Following the money shows investors anticipate fewer market fluctuations for the rand, whose three-month implied volatility is four less than it was in 2024, the biggest decline among 15 major currencies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg (three-month implied volatility measures bets on one currency's degree of swings in the ensuing quarter).
和许多经济体一样，南非正受益于推动股市上涨的人工智能巨轮。根据彭博汇编的数据，在涵盖市值大于[数值缺失]的上市公司的10个行业中，该国通信服务业公司预计将在2027年实现平均收入增长，增幅居首。根据彭博汇编的分析师预估，在六家通信服务企业中，总部位于Fairland的MTN Group LTD和总部位于Midland的Vodacom Group LTD将以明年的收入增长领跑该行业。
And like many economies, South Africa is benefiting from the artificial intelligence juggernaut driving stock markets. Firms in the country’s communication services sector will achieve revenue growth on average in 2027, the most of 10 industries encompassing publicly-traded companies with a market value greater than , according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Among the six communications services businesses, Fairland-based MTN Group LTD and Midland-based Vodacom Group LTD will lead the industry with revenue growth next year, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
通胀何去何从？债券市场更乐观地认为，南非平均生活成本的上涨正得到控制。这一点体现在12个月期名义债券与通胀保值债券收益率差缩小上，该差值在过去两年间从[数值缺失]收窄至[数值缺失]。相比之下，实际消费者价格指数（CPI）于2024年2月同比上涨5.6%，低于2022年的7.8%。
Whither inflation? The bond market is more optimistic that the rise in South Africa’s average cost of living is coming under control. That is seen in the difference in yields between 12-month nominal and inflation-protected securities, which shrank during thepast two years to from . By comparison, the actual consumer price index rose 5.6% in February 2024 from a year earlier, down from 7.8% in 2022.
债券市场参与者对更长时间范围同样持乐观态度，根据彭博汇编的数据，盈亏平衡通胀率在未来五年平均为[数值缺失]。信用违约互换（CDS）作为另一衡量风险的市场，显示投资者为保护资产免受损失而支付的保费已降至15年低位。今年的降幅与美国国债相关成本的[数值缺失]上涨形成对比。
Bond market participants are just as optimistic over a longer time frame, with the breakeven rate averaging over the next five years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Credit default swaps, another market that measures risk, show investors are paying the lowest premiums in 15 years to protect their assets from losses. The decline this year contrasts with a increase in costs tied to US Treasuries.
南非金融市场的反弹既有人为因素也有自然因素催化。2024年初，几乎没人预测该国会选出自纳尔逊·曼德拉民族团结政府以来的首个执政联盟。非国大（ANC）失去议会多数派地位，使得作为曼德拉门生的西里尔·拉马福萨总统得以引入亲商的民主联盟（Democratic Alliance）作为执政伙伴。
South Africa’s rebound in the financial markets has both man-made and natural catalysts. At the beginning of 2024, almost no one predicted the country would elect its first ruling coalition since Nelson Mandela's government of national unity. The ouster of the ANC as the parliamentary majority enabled President Cyril Ramaphosa, a Mandela protege, to include the pro-business Democratic Alliance as a governing partner.
计划性停电于2024年3月停止，可用电力供应于2026年1月升至近六年高点，达到装机容量的72%——较三年前的51%有所上升。自2025年5月以来，南非记录了476个连续天数（约16个月）无限电。惠誉甚至于2026年6月将国家电力公用事业公司Eskom的长期发行人违约评级上调至B+，理由是该公司实现了扭亏为盈。
Scheduled power outages ceased in March 2024 and available power supply rose to a near six-year high in January 2026, reaching 72% of installed capacity — up from 51% three years prior. South Africa recorded 476 consecutive days, or about 16 months, without loadshedding since May 2025. Fitch even upgraded Eskom's long-term issuer default rating to B+ in June 2026, citing the state power utility's turnaround.
作为黄金和铂金的主要生产国，值得注意的是，在投资者需求上升的推动下，过去两年南非贵金属出口价值激增逾100%。
As a top producer of gold and platinum, it’s worth noting that South Africa’s exports of precious metals surged more than 100% in value during the past two years amid rising demand from investors.
因此，毫不奇怪，即使2026年略有下跌，据彭博提供的数据，基准FTSE/JSE全股指数正享受自2010年12月31日结束的时期以来最好的三年回报表现。而自2025年1月特朗普重返白宫以来，其表现甚至可与备受推崇的标普500指数相媲美。
Little wonder, then, that even with a slight drop this in 2026, the benchmark FTSE/JSE All Share Index of equities is enjoying its best three-year stretch of returns since the period ended Dec. 31, 2010, according to data provided by Bloomberg. And its performance since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 rivals even that of the vaunted S&P 500 Index. All of which goes to show that it’s better to watch what the market is saying and not what comes out of the Oval Office.
所有这些表明，关注市场在说什么，比关注椭圆形办公室发出的声音更为明智。在 的协助下。
With assistance from . To contact the author of this story: at mwinkler@bloomberg.net
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To contact the author of this story: at mwinkler@bloomberg.net