文/ Suttinee Yuvejwattana 摩根大通集团预计泰国央行明年将加息三次，这与市场共识大相径庭，将解除全球最宽松货币政策之一。
By Suttinee Yuvejwattana JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects Thailand’s central bank to raise interest rates three times next year, a sharp break with consensus that would unwind some of the world’s most accommodative monetary policy.
经济学家Charnon Boonnuch在周一的一份报告中表示，该行预测将从第一季度开始加息三次，每次25个基点，将基准利率从目前的1%提升至2027年底的1.75%。
The bank forecasts three 25-basis point increases beginning in the first quarter, taking the benchmark rate to 1.75% by the end of 2027 from 1% currently, economist Charnon Boonnuch said in a report on Monday.
这一预测异常鹰派。大多数经济学家预计泰国央行将维持利率在1%不变直到2027年，因为政策制定者在支持一个难以实现2%以上增长的经济。泰国的基准利率已经是全球最低之一，且低于日本。
The call is unusually hawkish. Most economists expect the Bank of Thailand to keep rates at 1% through 2027 as policymakers support an economy that has struggled to grow much above 2%. Thailand’s benchmark rate is already among the lowest globally and sits below Japan’s.
摩根大通押注更强劲的增长和通胀反弹将改变这一判断。该行维持预测，泰国经济2026年和2027年均将增长2.5%，高于央行分别预测的2.3%和1.8%。
JPMorgan is betting that stronger growth and resurgent inflation will change that calculus. It maintained its forecasts for the Thai economy to expand 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027, above the central bank’s projections of 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively.
Charnon表示：“更乐观的前景因此可能减少对高度宽松政策的需求，因为通胀很可能很快就会超出泰国央行的目标区间。”
“The brighter outlook could, therefore, reduce the need for highly accommodative policy as inflation is likely to overshoot the BOT’s target range soon,” Charnon said.
摩根大通将2026年整体通胀预测略微上调至2%，将2027年预测上调整整一个百分点至2.5%，理由是油价成本上升和价格压力扩散。预计通胀将在本月突破泰国央行1%-3%的目标区间，并在2027年第一季度加速至约4%。
JPMorgan raised its headline inflation forecast slightly to 2% for 2026, and by a full percentage point to 2.5% for next year, citing higher oil costs and broadening price pressures. Inflation is expected to breach the BOT’s 1%-3% target range this month and accelerate to about 4% in the first quarter of 2027.
更高的利率将在借贷成本被推至接近历史低位后，给央行更多常规政策空间来应对未来的经济下行。摩根大通引用信贷条件改善作为另一个给政策制定者更大常态化空间的因素，尽管对中小企业的贷款仍然疲软。泰国央行未立即回应关于摩根大通预测的置评请求。
Higher rates would give the central bank more conventional policy space to respond to a future downturn after borrowing costs were pushed close to their historical lows. JPMorgan cited improving credit conditions as another factor giving policymakers greater room to normalize, though lending to small- and medium-sized businesses remains weak. The Bank of Thailand didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on JPMorgan’s forecast.
央行行长Vitai Ratanakorn抵制了市场关于长期暂停的假设。他上个月表示，政策制定者并不承诺长期维持利率不变，下一步行动可能朝任何方向发展。
Governor Vitai Ratanakorn has resisted the market’s assumption of an extended pause. He said last month that policymakers aren’t committed to keeping rates unchanged for a prolonged period and that the next move could be in either direction.
摩根大通仍预计泰国央行将在2026年剩余时间维持利率不变，低于潜力的增长和信贷疲软使得提前加息的门槛居高不下。央行在8月连续第三次会议上将基准利率维持在1%，下一次利率决议将于10月28日公布。
JPMorgan still expects the BOT to remain on hold for the rest of 2026, with below-potential growth and credit weakness keeping the hurdle for an earlier increase high. The central bank left its benchmark at 1% for a third straight meeting in August, with its next decision due Oct. 28.