马修·伯吉斯（Matthew Burgess）与海迪·伦（Haidi Lun）共同撰文指出：太平洋投资管理公司（Pacific Investment Management Co.）对澳大利亚债券的看法正变得越来越积极。该公司认为，在当地经济放缓的背景下，市场对于利率上升的预期已经过于悲观了。
By Matthew Burgess and Haidi Lun Pacific Investment Management Co. is taking an increasingly constructive stance on Australian bonds, arguing that market expectations for interest-rate hikes have gone too far in the face of a slowing local economy.
悉尼Pimco公司澳大利亚投资组合管理主管亚当·鲍威（Adam Bowe）表示，澳大利亚的加息周期已经“完全被市场消化”（即市场已经提前预见了所有可能的加息情况），经济中的问题也开始逐渐显现。他在周一接受彭博电视（Bloomberg TV）采访时表示，这使得澳大利亚债券变得具有吸引力，尤其是在5至10年的债券期限段。
Australia’s rate-hike cycle is “fully priced,” and cracks in the economy are becoming visible, said Adam Bowe, head of Australian portfolio management at Pimco in Sydney. That’s making Australian bonds look attractive, particularly in the five- to 10-year section of the yield curve, he said on Bloomberg TV on Monday. “Aussie bonds look attractive on their own right, but also relative to other markets,” Bowe said. The Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia are “trying to bend inflation back to target without breaking the economy, but I think economic cracks are more visible here,” he said.
鲍威进一步解释道：“澳大利亚债券本身就很具有投资价值，而且相对于其他市场来说也更具吸引力。”他指出，美联储（Federal Reserve）和澳大利亚储备银行（Reserve Bank of Australia）都在努力将通胀率控制在目标范围内，同时避免对经济造成过度冲击；但他认为澳大利亚经济中的问题已经更加明显了。
Pimco’s call comes as domestic indicators point to fading economic momentum, highlighted by unemployment near a five-year high and a slowing housing market. The timing offers investors an entry point to catch a market bottom, with yields on Australian benchmark 10-year bonds reaching their highest level since 2011.
Pimco的这一观点出台之际，国内经济指标显示经济增长势头正在减弱——失业率接近五年来的最高水平，房地产市场也在放缓。目前的市场环境为投资者提供了一个入场机会，让他们可以在市场触底时买入澳大利亚债券；目前澳大利亚10年期基准债券的收益率已达到2011年以来的最高水平。
Bowe has favored Australian debt since mid-year on expectations the RBA will eventually be forced to shift toward rate cuts to support the cooling economy.
自今年年中以来，鲍威一直看好澳大利亚债券的投资前景，因为他预计澳大利亚储备银行最终将不得不转向降息措施，以支持疲软的经济。
Earlier story: Australia’s Battered Bonds Have Reasons to Rebound, Funds Say Still, near-term policy risk remains elevated. Traders expect the RBA to raise interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, pushing the cash rate to its highest level since November 2011. Swaps data compiled by Bloomberg show markets see a three-in-four chance of two additional hikes next year, which would take the benchmark rate above 5% for the first time since 2008.
相关报道：尽管有观点认为澳大利亚债券仍有反弹的空间，但市场仍认为短期内政策风险依然较高。交易员预计澳大利亚储备银行将在周二结束的两天政策会议上加息，将现金利率推高至2011年11月以来的最高水平。彭博社汇编的互换数据表明，市场认为明年还有三次加息的可能性，这将使澳大利亚的基准利率首次超过5%。然而，Pimco认为澳大利亚经济无法承受这样的加息趋势。
Earlier story: Australia’s Battered Bonds Have Reasons to Rebound, Funds Say Still, near-term policy risk remains elevated. Traders expect the RBA to raise interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, pushing the cash rate to its highest level since November 2011. Swaps data compiled by Bloomberg show markets see a three-in-four chance of two additional hikes next year, which would take the benchmark rate above 5% for the first time since 2008. Pimco, however, contends the domestic economy cannot withstand that trajectory.
虽然对数据中心的资本支出可以在未来几年内维持经济的稳定，但鲍（Bowe）警告称，澳大利亚负债家庭存在更为严重的“结构性脆弱性”。他表示，税收负担和抵押贷款还款额占收入的比例已经接近历史最高水平，这使得消费者难以承受5%的利率。
While capital expenditure on data centers may keep the economy resilient for a couple of years, Bowe warned of a deeper “structural fragility” among indebted Australian households. As a proportion of income, tax burdens and mortgage repayments are already near record highs, leaving consumers ill-equipped to absorb a 5% cash rate, he said.
“如果利率进一步上升（尤其是达到5%左右），我认为经济衰退的风险确实存在，”鲍说道。鉴于澳大利亚债券的收益率已经相当诱人，且经济增长势头正在放缓，他对澳大利亚债券市场的前景持乐观态度。
“The further they they push it, particularly with rates if they get up to around 5%, I think recession risks are real,” Bowe said. With already attractive yields and signs growth is slowing, “I’m constructive on the Aussie bond outlook,” he said.