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伯恩斯坦称,亚马逊和Flipkart正以近1000家暗仓加速布局即时零售竞赛Amazon, Flipkart accelerating in quick-commerce race with nearly 1,000 dark stores, says Bernstein

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伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)董事兼高级研究分析师吉格南舒·戈尔(Jignanshu Gor)表示,随着亚马逊(Amazon)和 Flipkart 接近一个关键的规模里程碑,印度即时零售市场的竞争可能会进一步放缓。即时零售升温戈尔指出,拥有 1,000 家靠近客户的“前置仓”(dark stores)和小型仓库是实现快速配送的重要基准。达到这一规模后,企业能够覆盖更多的一线城市,并建立足够的订单量,从而更专注于单位经济效益,即每笔订单的盈亏情况。

Competition in India’s quick-commerce market could moderate further as Amazon and Flipkart approach a key scale milestone, according to Jignanshu Gor, Director & Senior Research Analyst at Bernstein.Quick Commerce Heats Gor said crossing 1,000 dark stores and small warehouses located close to customers for faster deliveries is an important benchmark. At that scale, companies can cover more of the top cities and build enough order volumes to focus more closely on unit economics, or how much they earn or lose on each order.“We have seen most companies take a pause, take a breather, and figure out how the unit economics evolve after that,” Gor said.The market has expanded from the earlier three-player structure, with Amazon and Flipkart accelerating their quick-commerce expansion over the past year. Blinkit continues to lead, while Zepto and Swiggy remain key players.Racing With Dark StoresBernstein also sees some moderation in price-led competition. Blinkit and Swiggy have reduced aggressive pricing, while Zepto has cut discounts and shifted some of its marketing spending towards Zepto Club, its membership-based model. Amazon and Flipkart, meanwhile, are still focused on acquiring customers but are gradually reducing the incentives offered to them.Gor expects competitive intensity to moderate further once the newer players reach greater scale. Flipkart is broadly approaching the 1,000-store mark, while Amazon could potentially reach it by the festive season. The next phase could therefore be more about improving profitability rather than simply expanding the customer base.Bernstein estimates Blinkit currently has around 45-55% of the quick-commerce market by order volume. However, Gor cautioned that market-share estimates are difficult because Amazon, Flipkart and Zepto are private companies.He also pointed out that the newer players are growing faster than Blinkit because of the difference in their respective bases. For investors, however, Gor said value market share is more relevant than simply looking at order volumes.Moving to Bernstein’s recent coverage, Gor said the firm sees FSN E-Commerce Ventures and Meesho differently despite both being high-valuation stocks. For Nykaa, its focus on beauty and fashion and its concentration on top-of-the-pyramid consumers provide greater visibility on how the business can replicate its existing profitability-led model.For Meesho, the consumer franchise is much larger, with nearly 300 million consumers transacting on the platform every year. However, Bernstein wants more proof that the company can generate substantial profit margins over the long term.“What we are sceptical on, or where we need more proof points, is the ability to generate substantial profit margins in the long run,” Gor said.In the jewellery and retail space, Gor said Titan Company remains a company Bernstein expects to perform well. The brokerage has raised its target price to ₹5,400.The immediate challenge is the low year-on-year growth in gold prices, which means Titan will need stronger buyer growth to drive revenue. Gor said management’s strategy of attracting more consumers, even at the cost of discounts and lower margins, could help the company gain revenue and market share.Watch the full conversation hereGor also highlighted what he sees as a key difference between Titan and many other listed jewellery companies: its focus on being a retailer rather than simply a jeweller.“The growth process is more sustainable. The internal approach is more longer term and sustainable, and that is what builds brands,” he said.

“我们看到大多数公司都在放慢脚步,进行调整,并研究在此之后单位经济效益将如何演变,”戈尔说道。

Competition in India’s quick-commerce market could moderate further as Amazon and Flipkart approach a key scale milestone, according to Jignanshu Gor, Director & Senior Research Analyst at Bernstein.Quick Commerce Heats Gor said crossing 1,000 dark stores and small warehouses located close to customers for faster deliveries is an important benchmark. At that scale, companies can cover more of the top cities and build enough order volumes to focus more closely on unit economics, or how much they earn or lose on each order.“We have seen most companies take a pause, take a breather, and figure out how the unit economics evolve after that,” Gor said.The market has expanded from the earlier three-player structure, with Amazon and Flipkart accelerating their quick-commerce expansion over the past year. Blinkit continues to lead, while Zepto and Swiggy remain key players.Racing With Dark StoresBernstein also sees some moderation in price-led competition. Blinkit and Swiggy have reduced aggressive pricing, while Zepto has cut discounts and shifted some of its marketing spending towards Zepto Club, its membership-based model. Amazon and Flipkart, meanwhile, are still focused on acquiring customers but are gradually reducing the incentives offered to them.Gor expects competitive intensity to moderate further once the newer players reach greater scale. Flipkart is broadly approaching the 1,000-store mark, while Amazon could potentially reach it by the festive season. The next phase could therefore be more about improving profitability rather than simply expanding the customer base.Bernstein estimates Blinkit currently has around 45-55% of the quick-commerce market by order volume. However, Gor cautioned that market-share estimates are difficult because Amazon, Flipkart and Zepto are private companies.He also pointed out that the newer players are growing faster than Blinkit because of the difference in their respective bases. For investors, however, Gor said value market share is more relevant than simply looking at order volumes.Moving to Bernstein’s recent coverage, Gor said the firm sees FSN E-Commerce Ventures and Meesho differently despite both being high-valuation stocks. For Nykaa, its focus on beauty and fashion and its concentration on top-of-the-pyramid consumers provide greater visibility on how the business can replicate its existing profitability-led model.For Meesho, the consumer franchise is much larger, with nearly 300 million consumers transacting on the platform every year. However, Bernstein wants more proof that the company can generate substantial profit margins over the long term.“What we are sceptical on, or where we need more proof points, is the ability to generate substantial profit margins in the long run,” Gor said.In the jewellery and retail space, Gor said Titan Company remains a company Bernstein expects to perform well. The brokerage has raised its target price to ₹5,400.The immediate challenge is the low year-on-year growth in gold prices, which means Titan will need stronger buyer growth to drive revenue. Gor said management’s strategy of attracting more consumers, even at the cost of discounts and lower margins, could help the company gain revenue and market share.Watch the full conversation hereGor also highlighted what he sees as a key difference between Titan and many other listed jewellery companies: its focus on being a retailer rather than simply a jeweller.“The growth process is more sustainable. The internal approach is more longer term and sustainable, and that is what builds brands,” he said.

该市场已从早期的三方格局扩展开来,亚马逊和 Flipkart 在过去一年中加快了即时零售业务的扩张。Blinkit 继续保持领先,而 Zepto 和 Swiggy 依然是关键参与者。前置仓竞速伯恩斯坦还观察到,以价格为主导的竞争有所缓和。Blinkit 和 Swiggy 已经减少了激进的定价策略,而 Zepto 则削减了折扣,并将部分营销支出转向了其会员制模式 Zepto Club。与此同时,亚马逊和 Flipkart 虽然仍专注于获取客户,但也在逐步减少提供给客户的激励措施。

Competition in India’s quick-commerce market could moderate further as Amazon and Flipkart approach a key scale milestone, according to Jignanshu Gor, Director & Senior Research Analyst at Bernstein.Quick Commerce Heats Gor said crossing 1,000 dark stores and small warehouses located close to customers for faster deliveries is an important benchmark. At that scale, companies can cover more of the top cities and build enough order volumes to focus more closely on unit economics, or how much they earn or lose on each order.“We have seen most companies take a pause, take a breather, and figure out how the unit economics evolve after that,” Gor said.The market has expanded from the earlier three-player structure, with Amazon and Flipkart accelerating their quick-commerce expansion over the past year. Blinkit continues to lead, while Zepto and Swiggy remain key players.Racing With Dark StoresBernstein also sees some moderation in price-led competition. Blinkit and Swiggy have reduced aggressive pricing, while Zepto has cut discounts and shifted some of its marketing spending towards Zepto Club, its membership-based model. Amazon and Flipkart, meanwhile, are still focused on acquiring customers but are gradually reducing the incentives offered to them.Gor expects competitive intensity to moderate further once the newer players reach greater scale. Flipkart is broadly approaching the 1,000-store mark, while Amazon could potentially reach it by the festive season. The next phase could therefore be more about improving profitability rather than simply expanding the customer base.Bernstein estimates Blinkit currently has around 45-55% of the quick-commerce market by order volume. However, Gor cautioned that market-share estimates are difficult because Amazon, Flipkart and Zepto are private companies.He also pointed out that the newer players are growing faster than Blinkit because of the difference in their respective bases. For investors, however, Gor said value market share is more relevant than simply looking at order volumes.Moving to Bernstein’s recent coverage, Gor said the firm sees FSN E-Commerce Ventures and Meesho differently despite both being high-valuation stocks. For Nykaa, its focus on beauty and fashion and its concentration on top-of-the-pyramid consumers provide greater visibility on how the business can replicate its existing profitability-led model.For Meesho, the consumer franchise is much larger, with nearly 300 million consumers transacting on the platform every year. However, Bernstein wants more proof that the company can generate substantial profit margins over the long term.“What we are sceptical on, or where we need more proof points, is the ability to generate substantial profit margins in the long run,” Gor said.In the jewellery and retail space, Gor said Titan Company remains a company Bernstein expects to perform well. The brokerage has raised its target price to ₹5,400.The immediate challenge is the low year-on-year growth in gold prices, which means Titan will need stronger buyer growth to drive revenue. Gor said management’s strategy of attracting more consumers, even at the cost of discounts and lower margins, could help the company gain revenue and market share.Watch the full conversation hereGor also highlighted what he sees as a key difference between Titan and many other listed jewellery companies: its focus on being a retailer rather than simply a jeweller.“The growth process is more sustainable. The internal approach is more longer term and sustainable, and that is what builds brands,” he said.

戈尔预计,一旦新进入市场的参与者达到更大的规模,竞争强度将进一步减弱。Flipkart 目前已基本接近 1,000 家门店的门槛,而亚马逊也有望在节日季前达到这一规模。因此,下一阶段的重点可能更多在于提高盈利能力,而非单纯扩大客户群。

Competition in India’s quick-commerce market could moderate further as Amazon and Flipkart approach a key scale milestone, according to Jignanshu Gor, Director & Senior Research Analyst at Bernstein.Quick Commerce Heats Gor said crossing 1,000 dark stores and small warehouses located close to customers for faster deliveries is an important benchmark. At that scale, companies can cover more of the top cities and build enough order volumes to focus more closely on unit economics, or how much they earn or lose on each order.“We have seen most companies take a pause, take a breather, and figure out how the unit economics evolve after that,” Gor said.The market has expanded from the earlier three-player structure, with Amazon and Flipkart accelerating their quick-commerce expansion over the past year. Blinkit continues to lead, while Zepto and Swiggy remain key players.Racing With Dark StoresBernstein also sees some moderation in price-led competition. Blinkit and Swiggy have reduced aggressive pricing, while Zepto has cut discounts and shifted some of its marketing spending towards Zepto Club, its membership-based model. Amazon and Flipkart, meanwhile, are still focused on acquiring customers but are gradually reducing the incentives offered to them.Gor expects competitive intensity to moderate further once the newer players reach greater scale. Flipkart is broadly approaching the 1,000-store mark, while Amazon could potentially reach it by the festive season. The next phase could therefore be more about improving profitability rather than simply expanding the customer base.Bernstein estimates Blinkit currently has around 45-55% of the quick-commerce market by order volume. However, Gor cautioned that market-share estimates are difficult because Amazon, Flipkart and Zepto are private companies.He also pointed out that the newer players are growing faster than Blinkit because of the difference in their respective bases. For investors, however, Gor said value market share is more relevant than simply looking at order volumes.Moving to Bernstein’s recent coverage, Gor said the firm sees FSN E-Commerce Ventures and Meesho differently despite both being high-valuation stocks. For Nykaa, its focus on beauty and fashion and its concentration on top-of-the-pyramid consumers provide greater visibility on how the business can replicate its existing profitability-led model.For Meesho, the consumer franchise is much larger, with nearly 300 million consumers transacting on the platform every year. However, Bernstein wants more proof that the company can generate substantial profit margins over the long term.“What we are sceptical on, or where we need more proof points, is the ability to generate substantial profit margins in the long run,” Gor said.In the jewellery and retail space, Gor said Titan Company remains a company Bernstein expects to perform well. The brokerage has raised its target price to ₹5,400.The immediate challenge is the low year-on-year growth in gold prices, which means Titan will need stronger buyer growth to drive revenue. Gor said management’s strategy of attracting more consumers, even at the cost of discounts and lower margins, could help the company gain revenue and market share.Watch the full conversation hereGor also highlighted what he sees as a key difference between Titan and many other listed jewellery companies: its focus on being a retailer rather than simply a jeweller.“The growth process is more sustainable. The internal approach is more longer term and sustainable, and that is what builds brands,” he said.

伯恩斯坦估计,按订单量计算,Blinkit 目前占据了约 45% 至 55% 的即时零售市场份额。不过,戈尔提醒称,由于亚马逊、Flipkart 和 Zepto 均为私营公司,市场份额的估算存在难度。

Competition in India’s quick-commerce market could moderate further as Amazon and Flipkart approach a key scale milestone, according to Jignanshu Gor, Director & Senior Research Analyst at Bernstein.Quick Commerce Heats Gor said crossing 1,000 dark stores and small warehouses located close to customers for faster deliveries is an important benchmark. At that scale, companies can cover more of the top cities and build enough order volumes to focus more closely on unit economics, or how much they earn or lose on each order.“We have seen most companies take a pause, take a breather, and figure out how the unit economics evolve after that,” Gor said.The market has expanded from the earlier three-player structure, with Amazon and Flipkart accelerating their quick-commerce expansion over the past year. Blinkit continues to lead, while Zepto and Swiggy remain key players.Racing With Dark StoresBernstein also sees some moderation in price-led competition. Blinkit and Swiggy have reduced aggressive pricing, while Zepto has cut discounts and shifted some of its marketing spending towards Zepto Club, its membership-based model. Amazon and Flipkart, meanwhile, are still focused on acquiring customers but are gradually reducing the incentives offered to them.Gor expects competitive intensity to moderate further once the newer players reach greater scale. Flipkart is broadly approaching the 1,000-store mark, while Amazon could potentially reach it by the festive season. The next phase could therefore be more about improving profitability rather than simply expanding the customer base.Bernstein estimates Blinkit currently has around 45-55% of the quick-commerce market by order volume. However, Gor cautioned that market-share estimates are difficult because Amazon, Flipkart and Zepto are private companies.He also pointed out that the newer players are growing faster than Blinkit because of the difference in their respective bases. For investors, however, Gor said value market share is more relevant than simply looking at order volumes.Moving to Bernstein’s recent coverage, Gor said the firm sees FSN E-Commerce Ventures and Meesho differently despite both being high-valuation stocks. For Nykaa, its focus on beauty and fashion and its concentration on top-of-the-pyramid consumers provide greater visibility on how the business can replicate its existing profitability-led model.For Meesho, the consumer franchise is much larger, with nearly 300 million consumers transacting on the platform every year. However, Bernstein wants more proof that the company can generate substantial profit margins over the long term.“What we are sceptical on, or where we need more proof points, is the ability to generate substantial profit margins in the long run,” Gor said.In the jewellery and retail space, Gor said Titan Company remains a company Bernstein expects to perform well. The brokerage has raised its target price to ₹5,400.The immediate challenge is the low year-on-year growth in gold prices, which means Titan will need stronger buyer growth to drive revenue. Gor said management’s strategy of attracting more consumers, even at the cost of discounts and lower margins, could help the company gain revenue and market share.Watch the full conversation hereGor also highlighted what he sees as a key difference between Titan and many other listed jewellery companies: its focus on being a retailer rather than simply a jeweller.“The growth process is more sustainable. The internal approach is more longer term and sustainable, and that is what builds brands,” he said.

他还指出,由于基数不同,新进入市场的参与者增长速度要快于 Blinkit。

Competition in India’s quick-commerce market could moderate further as Amazon and Flipkart approach a key scale milestone, according to Jignanshu Gor, Director & Senior Research Analyst at Bernstein.Quick Commerce Heats Gor said crossing 1,000 dark stores and small warehouses located close to customers for faster deliveries is an important benchmark. At that scale, companies can cover more of the top cities and build enough order volumes to focus more closely on unit economics, or how much they earn or lose on each order.“We have seen most companies take a pause, take a breather, and figure out how the unit economics evolve after that,” Gor said.The market has expanded from the earlier three-player structure, with Amazon and Flipkart accelerating their quick-commerce expansion over the past year. Blinkit continues to lead, while Zepto and Swiggy remain key players.Racing With Dark StoresBernstein also sees some moderation in price-led competition. Blinkit and Swiggy have reduced aggressive pricing, while Zepto has cut discounts and shifted some of its marketing spending towards Zepto Club, its membership-based model. Amazon and Flipkart, meanwhile, are still focused on acquiring customers but are gradually reducing the incentives offered to them.Gor expects competitive intensity to moderate further once the newer players reach greater scale. Flipkart is broadly approaching the 1,000-store mark, while Amazon could potentially reach it by the festive season. The next phase could therefore be more about improving profitability rather than simply expanding the customer base.Bernstein estimates Blinkit currently has around 45-55% of the quick-commerce market by order volume. However, Gor cautioned that market-share estimates are difficult because Amazon, Flipkart and Zepto are private companies.He also pointed out that the newer players are growing faster than Blinkit because of the difference in their respective bases. For investors, however, Gor said value market share is more relevant than simply looking at order volumes.Moving to Bernstein’s recent coverage, Gor said the firm sees FSN E-Commerce Ventures and Meesho differently despite both being high-valuation stocks. For Nykaa, its focus on beauty and fashion and its concentration on top-of-the-pyramid consumers provide greater visibility on how the business can replicate its existing profitability-led model.For Meesho, the consumer franchise is much larger, with nearly 300 million consumers transacting on the platform every year. However, Bernstein wants more proof that the company can generate substantial profit margins over the long term.“What we are sceptical on, or where we need more proof points, is the ability to generate substantial profit margins in the long run,” Gor said.In the jewellery and retail space, Gor said Titan Company remains a company Bernstein expects to perform well. The brokerage has raised its target price to ₹5,400.The immediate challenge is the low year-on-year growth in gold prices, which means Titan will need stronger buyer growth to drive revenue. Gor said management’s strategy of attracting more consumers, even at the cost of discounts and lower margins, could help the company gain revenue and market share.Watch the full conversation hereGor also highlighted what he sees as a key difference between Titan and many other listed jewellery companies: its focus on being a retailer rather than simply a jeweller.“The growth process is more sustainable. The internal approach is more longer term and sustainable, and that is what builds brands,” he said.

不过,戈尔表示,对投资者而言,价值市场份额比单纯关注订单量更为重要。谈及伯恩斯坦近期的覆盖报告,戈尔称,尽管FSN电子商务创投和Meesho均为高估值股票,但该公司对两者的看法有所不同。对于Nykaa,其专注于美妆和时尚领域,并聚焦于金字塔顶端的消费者,这使得市场对其如何复制现有以盈利能力为核心的商业模式具有更高的可见度。对于Meesho,其消费者基础庞大得多,每年有近3亿消费者在该平台上进行交易。然而,伯恩斯坦希望看到更多证据,证明该公司能够在长期内产生可观的利润率。戈尔表示:“我们持怀疑态度,或者说需要更多证据支持的,是其在长期内产生可观利润率的能力。”在珠宝和零售领域,戈尔表示,泰坦公司(Titan Company)仍是伯恩斯坦预期表现良好的公司。该经纪公司已将其目标价上调至5400卢比。眼前的挑战在于黄金价格同比增速较低,这意味着泰坦需要更强的买家增长来推动营收。戈尔表示,管理层通过提供折扣和降低利润率来吸引更多消费者的策略,可能有助于公司提升营收和市场份额。在此观看完整对话。戈尔还强调了他认为泰坦与许多其他上市珠宝公司之间的关键区别:泰坦专注于成为零售商,而不仅仅是珠宝商。他表示:“增长过程更具可持续性。内部方法更着眼长远且可持续,这正是打造品牌的关键。”

Competition in India’s quick-commerce market could moderate further as Amazon and Flipkart approach a key scale milestone, according to Jignanshu Gor, Director & Senior Research Analyst at Bernstein.Quick Commerce Heats Gor said crossing 1,000 dark stores and small warehouses located close to customers for faster deliveries is an important benchmark. At that scale, companies can cover more of the top cities and build enough order volumes to focus more closely on unit economics, or how much they earn or lose on each order.“We have seen most companies take a pause, take a breather, and figure out how the unit economics evolve after that,” Gor said.The market has expanded from the earlier three-player structure, with Amazon and Flipkart accelerating their quick-commerce expansion over the past year. Blinkit continues to lead, while Zepto and Swiggy remain key players.Racing With Dark StoresBernstein also sees some moderation in price-led competition. Blinkit and Swiggy have reduced aggressive pricing, while Zepto has cut discounts and shifted some of its marketing spending towards Zepto Club, its membership-based model. Amazon and Flipkart, meanwhile, are still focused on acquiring customers but are gradually reducing the incentives offered to them.Gor expects competitive intensity to moderate further once the newer players reach greater scale. Flipkart is broadly approaching the 1,000-store mark, while Amazon could potentially reach it by the festive season. The next phase could therefore be more about improving profitability rather than simply expanding the customer base.Bernstein estimates Blinkit currently has around 45-55% of the quick-commerce market by order volume. However, Gor cautioned that market-share estimates are difficult because Amazon, Flipkart and Zepto are private companies.He also pointed out that the newer players are growing faster than Blinkit because of the difference in their respective bases. For investors, however, Gor said value market share is more relevant than simply looking at order volumes.Moving to Bernstein’s recent coverage, Gor said the firm sees FSN E-Commerce Ventures and Meesho differently despite both being high-valuation stocks. For Nykaa, its focus on beauty and fashion and its concentration on top-of-the-pyramid consumers provide greater visibility on how the business can replicate its existing profitability-led model.For Meesho, the consumer franchise is much larger, with nearly 300 million consumers transacting on the platform every year. However, Bernstein wants more proof that the company can generate substantial profit margins over the long term.“What we are sceptical on, or where we need more proof points, is the ability to generate substantial profit margins in the long run,” Gor said.In the jewellery and retail space, Gor said Titan Company remains a company Bernstein expects to perform well. The brokerage has raised its target price to ₹5,400.The immediate challenge is the low year-on-year growth in gold prices, which means Titan will need stronger buyer growth to drive revenue. Gor said management’s strategy of attracting more consumers, even at the cost of discounts and lower margins, could help the company gain revenue and market share.Watch the full conversation hereGor also highlighted what he sees as a key difference between Titan and many other listed jewellery companies: its focus on being a retailer rather than simply a jeweller.“The growth process is more sustainable. The internal approach is more longer term and sustainable, and that is what builds brands,” he said.