根据彭博社的数据，德国的负电价现象即将迎来四年来首次年度下降——强劲的电力需求以及可再生能源支持政策的变化，有效遏制了电力供应过剩的情况。
By Eva Brendel Germany’s negative power prices are heading for their first annual decline in four years, as stronger electricity demand and changes to renewable-energy support curb periods of oversupply.
当电力供应超过需求时，就会出现负电价现象，这意味着发电企业实际上需要付费才能继续发电。随着欧洲风能和太阳能发电能力的迅速增加，但储能设施、电网系统以及电力消费的灵活性却没有同步提升，负电价现象变得越来越普遍。
Negative prices occur when electricity supply exceeds demand, forcing generators to effectively pay to keep producing. They have become increasingly common as Europe has rapidly added wind and solar capacity without equivalent growth in storage, grids and flexible consumption.
2026年至今，德国共出现了463小时的负电价情况，而去年同期这一数字为511小时；相比之下，西班牙的负电价时长增加了31%，达到了703小时，法国也出现了类似的趋势。
Germany has recorded 463 hours of such hourly prices so far in 2026, down from 511 at the same time last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Spain, by contrast, has seen the number rise by 31% to 703 hours. France has also seen an increase.
这种持续下降的趋势将有助于缓解可再生能源收入所面临的压力——尤其是在风能和太阳能发电量大幅增加后，负电价现象变得越来越普遍的情况下。不过，负电价的水平仍然处于历史高位，这凸显了整合越来越多间歇性发电资源所带来的挑战。
The sustained drop would ease a growing threat to renewable-energy revenues after the rapid expansion of wind and solar made below-zero prices increasingly common. Still, such levels remain historically high, underscoring the challenge of integrating ever larger amounts of intermittent generation.
分析机构Kpler Ltd.预计，从2025年起，德国的负电价总额将下降约13%。
Germany’s decline suggests however that the imbalance is starting to ease. Analysis firm Kpler Ltd. expects the annual total to fall about 13% from 2025.
Kpler的能源分析师亚历山德罗·亚美尼亚（Alessandro Armenia）表示：“德国的负电价在5月和6月尤为严重。这两个月里，多次热浪导致电力需求激增，而风能发电量下降则减少了导致批发电价降至负数的情况。”根据弗劳恩霍夫研究所（Fraunhofer Institute）的数据，2026年5月至7月的电力消费量比去年同期增长了10%。
“German negative prices particularly plummeted in May and June,” said Alessandro Armenia, an energy analyst at Kpler. Several heat waves during those months boosted electricity demand, while weaker wind generation reduced the periods of renewable oversupply that can push wholesale prices below zero, he said. Electricity consumption from May through July was 10% higher in 2026 than a year earlier, according to data from the Fraunhofer Institute.
德国可再生能源支持政策的变化也起到了重要作用：在负电价期间，某些太阳能发电厂不再获得补贴，这使得发电企业更有动力减少发电量而非继续生产。
Changes to Germany’s renewable-support system also played a role. Certain solar plants no longer receive subsidies during periods of negative prices, giving operators a stronger incentive to curtail production rather than continue generating, Armenia said.
德国很大一部分负价格时段出现在年初，随后变得不那么频繁。负电价在秋冬季节通常较为罕见，这使得德国有望实现同比下降。
A large share of Germany’s negative hours occurred early in the year before becoming less frequent. Sub-zero prices are typically rarer during autumn and winter, putting Germany on course for the year-on-year decline.
西班牙的趋势截然不同，该国负电价直到2024年才开始出现，且今年急剧上升。这使消费者受益，但给光伏发电商带来了痛苦。
The trend is markedly different in Spain, where those prices only began to emerge in 2024 and have risen sharply this year. That’s benefited consumers but caused pain for solar power producers.
根据Armenia的说法，这一增长是由数月来充沛的太阳能发电和较高的水库水位驱动的。他补充道，该国将午间可再生能源盈余出口至邻国市场的能力有限，可能导致负电价更加持久。
The increase is driven by abundant solar generation and high hydro reservoir levels over several months, according to Armenia. The country’s limited ability to export midday renewable surpluses to neighboring markets can make negative prices more persistent, he added.
法国今年迄今已记录520个负电价时段，而2025年同期为493个。“负电价在年初早早出现，早在二月和三月就已现身，随后在四月激增，”Armenia表示，并将其归因于太阳能装机容量增加和核电可用率提高。
France has recorded 520 negative-price hours so far this year, compared with 493 over the same period in 2025. “Negative prices emerged early in the year, already in February and March, before jumping in April,” Armenia said, pointing to increased solar capacity and higher nuclear availability.