哥伦比亚大学国际气候与社会研究所（IRI）表示，厄尔尼诺天气模式正在增强，预计将在2026年底和2027年初变为“极强”，引发对印度气候风险升高的担忧。
The El Nino weather pattern is strengthening and is likely to become ”very strong” in late 2026 and early 2027, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University said, raising concerns over elevated climate risk for India.
在9月21日发布的最新ENSO预测中，IRI表示，作为太平洋海温关键指标的尼诺3.4指数在9月中旬达到了+3.0摄氏度。
In its latest ENSO forecast, published on September 21, the IRI said the Nino 3.4 index, a key gauge of Pacific Ocean temperatures, reached +3.0 degrees Celsius in mid-September.
其调查的所有22个模型（13个动力模型和9个统计模型）均预测，2026-27年冬季将出现“极强”厄尔尼诺条件。
All 22 models it surveyed, 13 dynamical and nine statistical, forecast ”very strong” El Nino conditions through the 2026-27 winter.
IRI将厄尔尼诺持续到2027年2月的概率定为100%，到2027年中期降至61%。
The IRI put the probability of El Nino at 100% through February 2027, falling to 61% by mid-2027. It said the event could rank among the strongest on record.
该机构表示，此次事件可能跻身有记录以来最强厄尔尼诺事件之列。
The institute also expects the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to become strongly positive from September through December 2026 before returning toward neutral conditions in early 2027. A positive IOD often occurs alongside El Nino, though the two can develop independently, the IRI said.
该研究所还预计，印度洋偶极子（IOD）将在2026年9月至12月变为强正值，随后在2027年初转向中性条件。
The institute also expects the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to become strongly positive from September through December 2026 before returning toward neutral conditions in early 2027. A positive IOD often occurs alongside El Nino, though the two can develop independently, the IRI said.
IRI表示，正IOD常与厄尔尼诺同时出现，但两者也可独立发展。
For India, El Nino is typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and can affect crop output, although the IOD can sometimes offset those effects.
对印度而言，厄尔尼诺通常与季风降雨减弱相关，并可能影响农作物产量，尽管IOD有时可抵消这些影响。
For India, El Nino is typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall and can affect crop output, although the IOD can sometimes offset those effects.
专家表示，厄尔尼诺与正IOD的组合对印度至关重要，因为厄尔尼诺的影响并非仅由尼诺3.4指数决定。IOD、季风环流、区域海表温度和冬季天气模式也发挥作用。
Experts said the combination of El Nino and a positive IOD matters for India because El Nino’s impact is not determined by Nino 3.4 alone. The IOD, monsoon circulation, regional sea-surface temperatures and winter weather patterns also play a role.
他们表示：“IRI的预测强烈表明气候风险升高，但其本身并不能为印度提供精确的降雨或农业产量预测。”厄尔尼诺是一种自然气候模式，表现为太平洋大片区域异常升温。
”The IRI forecast is a strong indication of elevated climate risk, but it does not by itself provide a precise rainfall or agricultural-output forecast for India,” they said.
对印度而言，这有时意味着季风降雨减少、冬季更暖干以及农作物和水资源面临更大压力。
El Nino is a natural climate pattern when a large part of the Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm. For India, it can sometimes mean less monsoon rains, a warmer and drier winter and greater stress on crops and water availability.