埃迪·斯宾塞报道：作为全球最大的煤炭出口国，印度尼西亚未能从燃料价格的飙升中获益，因为各国正寻求弥补来自波斯湾的天然气供应减少。
By Eddie Spence Indonesia, the world’s biggest coal exporter, is failing to tap into soaring prices for the fuel as countries look to offset reduced natural gas supplies from the Persian Gulf.
在巴厘岛举行的会议上，这是当地行业年度日程中的重头戏，交易商们正面临着多年来最严峻的供应紧张局面。据DBX Commodities在一份报告中称，由于政府削减了采矿配额，以及主要驳船河流水位偏低，本月出口量降至五年来的最低水平。
At a conference on Bali that’s the highlight of the local industry’s calendar, traders are confronting some of the tightest supply conditions in years. Exports fell to a five-year low this month following the slashing of mining quotas by the government as well as low water levels at key barging rivers, DBX Commodities said in a note.
与此同时，国际能源署表示，受天然气价格上涨——因霍尔木兹海峡几乎关闭——以及增强厄尔尼诺现象导致空调需求增加的影响，今年煤炭消费量预计将创下历史新高。包括中国、韩国和日本在内的印尼煤炭买家，已被观察到在其电力结构中从天然气转向煤炭。
That comes as coal consumption is set to hit a record this year as demand is bolstered by higher gas prices — due to the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz — and a strong El Niño that’s increasing air-conditioning requirements, according to the International Energy Agency. Indonesian coal buyers including China, South Korea and Japan have already been observed switching from gas to coal in their power mix.
阿格斯媒体（Argus Media）高级副总裁穆罕默德·法迪尔在Fastmarkets举办的CoalTrans Asia会议小组讨论中表示：“需求正在转变，但从供应角度来看，市场依然紧张。印尼的规模意味着，产量和出口的下降可能会产生不成比例的巨大影响。”本月早些时候，纽卡斯尔煤炭基准期货价格飙升至近两年来的最高水平；而在中国——这一化石燃料的最大消费国——由于五月份一起致命事故引发了一系列安全检查，限制了国内产量，价格已升至2023年以来的高位。
“Demand is shifting, but the market remains tight from a supply perspective,” said Muhamad Fadhil, senior vice president at Argus Media, said on a panel at the Fastmarkets’ CoalTrans Asia conference. “Indonesia’s scale means lower production and exports could have an outsized impact.” Benchmark Newcastle coal futures earlier this month rallied to their highest in almost two years, while in China — the top consumer of the fossil fuel — prices have reached levels not seen since 2023 after a deadly accident in May prompted a series of safety inspections that curbed domestic output.
随着中国冬季的临近，采购转向可能对市场产生即时影响。然而，高价格可能会抑制对印尼煤炭的现货需求。
With winter on the horizon in China, a shift to buying could have an immediate impact on the market. However, spot demand for Indonesian coal may be muted by high prices.
雅加达曾试图让矿商从中获利——通过年中配额修订，逆转此前对部分企业影响不成比例的供应削减。其中一些企业今年早些时候不得不暂停生产，重新恢复产能可能需要一段时间。
Jakarta has attempted to allow miners to cash in — using mid-year quota revisions to reverse earlier supply cuts that fell disproportionately on some firms. Some of those had to suspend production earlier this year and may take time to ramp up again.
受影响的矿商包括巴扬资源公司（PT Bayan Resources），该公司是印尼最大的矿业企业之一，其配额在今年早些时候被大幅削减。在数日前，该公司与印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比安托的亲密盟友达成了一项出售其重要股权的交易，随后其配额才得以上调。
Affected producers included PT Bayan Resources, one of the nation’s biggest miners, which saw its quota slashed earlier this year. It was raised days after a deal to sell a major stake to a tycoon close to Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto.
该笔交易，连同更广泛的配额削减措施，以及去年政府试图强制矿商按官方设定的基准价出售煤炭的举措，均损害了印尼在外国买家眼中的信誉。
That transaction, along with the broader quota cuts and an attempt to force miners to sell at government-set benchmarks last year, undermined Indonesia’s credibility with foreign buyers.
贸易商阿松国际（Ashon International DMCC）研究主管马修·博伊尔（Matthew Boyle）表示：“不确定性给我们采购印尼煤炭造成了困难。去年我们完成了约400万吨的印尼煤炭销售，而今年能卖出200万吨就算幸运了。”与此同时，新成立的政府监管机构——印尼自然资源丹纳塔拉公司（Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia）的角色尚不明确。该机构旨在打击普拉博沃所称导致国家损失数百亿美元的低价开票等违规行为。周一，印尼自然资源丹纳塔拉公司总裁卢克·马霍尼（Luke Mahony）试图向矿商和贸易商保证，该机构仅会监控出口价格，而不会全面接管货物发运。
“The uncertainty has created issues with us being able to purchase Indonesian coal,” said Matthew Boyle, head of research at trader Ashon International DMCC. “Last year we did about 4 million tons of Indonesian coal sales, this year we’ll be lucky to get 2 million.” Meanwhile, there is ambiguity around the role of a new government oversight agency, Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia, which is meant to clamp down on practices such as under-invoicing that Prabowo said cost the state tens of billions of dollars. DSI President Luke Mahony on Monday tried to assure miners and traders that the body will merely monitor export prices rather than take full control of shipments.
“我要明确一点，印尼自然资源丹纳塔拉公司并非来扰乱印尼出口流程的，”马霍尼说。“出口商将继续进行出口。”
“Let me be clear on one point, DSI is not here to disrupt the flow of Indonesian exports,” Mahony said. “Exporters will continue to export.”