周末，莱茵河的水位骤降至历史最低水平，威胁到了这条对中欧能源和工业商品运输至关重要的航道的安全。
By Joe Wertz Water levels in the Rhine River plummeted to record lows over the weekend, threatening transport on a key shipping corridor for energy and industrial commodities across central Europe.
根据德国联邦水路与航运管理局的数据，周六科布（Kaub）站的水位比安全阈值低了3厘米（1.2英寸）；这一阈值是航运公司用来判断货船能否安全装载货物、避免损坏或搁浅的重要参考标准。
The water level at Kaub fell to 3 centimeters (1.2 inches) below a key threshold on Saturday, a benchmark used by ship operators to determine how much cargo vessels can safely carry without risking damage or running aground.
用于运输煤炭、燃料和工业产品的货船在周末经历了水位下降的困境，但周一水位已回升至安全范围内（比安全阈值低2厘米）。
Levels at the critical chokepoint for coal, fuel and industrial commodities recoveredfrom the dip into negatives over the weekend, reaching 2 centimeters on Monday, according to data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration.
由于持续干旱，从鹿特丹到卡尔斯鲁厄（Karlsruhe）的柴油运输成本在周一上涨了15%；本月该运输成本已经翻了一番多。
The cost of shipping diesel from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe climbed 15% on Monday, after more than doubling this month as dry conditions lingered.
莱茵河沿岸分布着许多大型化工企业、炼油厂和钢铁厂，包括巴斯夫（BASF SE）、拜耳（Bayer）、科思创（Covestro AG）和壳牌（Shell plc）等公司。这条河流是连接欧洲工厂与全球市场的重要交通要道。
The Rhine is dotted with major chemical plants, refineries and steel factories from BASF SE, Bayer, Covestro AG and Shell plc and serves as an important transportation route connecting European factories with global markets.
西欧遭遇了有记录以来最炎热的夏季，频繁的高温和干旱导致莱茵河的水量急剧减少。长达数月的航运中断迫使一些化工企业减产，或对某些产品宣布“不可抗力”（即无法履行合同）。这种状况进一步加剧了欧洲化工行业的压力——该行业正面临需求疲软、能源成本高涨以及竞争加剧的多重困境。
Western Europe’s hottest summer has brought repeated waves of heat and drought, sharply reducing water flows into the Rhine. The months-long disruption has forced some chemical producers to curb output or declare force majeure on certain products, adding to the strain on Europe’s chemical industry as it grapples with weak demand, high energy costs and intensifying competition.
莱茵河沿岸的企业们面临着供水是否可靠的不确定性；显然，那些提前为干旱做好了准备的企业与那些没有做准备的企之间存在明显差距。
Firms along the Rhine are confronting the possibility that reliable access to the waterway isn’t assured, revealing a divide between those that have prepared for drought and those that haven’t.
全球风险管理公司（Global Risk Management）的研究主管阿恩·洛曼·拉斯穆森（Arne Lohmann Rasmussen）表示，要替代莱茵河的运输能力几乎是不可能的；仅替代石油运输所需的运输车辆数量就可能需要每天3000辆卡车。
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of research at Global Risk Management, said replacing the Rhine’s freight capacity would be difficult — likely requiring 3,000 daily tanker trucks to offset oil cargoes alone.
“莱茵河的水位过低，这正是德国经济最不需要的情况，”他在 LinkedIn 上发布的一篇分析文章中写道。“降雨最终会抬高河流水位。但长期来看，问题依然存在：低水位已不再只是偶尔发生的天气现象，而逐渐成为一种反复出现的经济、物流以及地区性价格风险。”根据德国联邦水文研究所的预测，考布（Kaub）地区的水位可能在周二晚上再次降至低于通航标准的水平。预计本周整个地区将持续处于干旱状态，但河流水位有望在十月初开始回升。
“Low Rhine water levels are the last thing the German economy needs,” he wrote in an analysis posted to LinkedIn. “Rain will eventually raise the Rhine again. The longer-term problem remains: low water is no longer only a rare weather event. It is becoming a recurring economic, logistical and regional price risk.”Water levels at Kaub could again sink below the shipping threshold Tuesday evening, according to forecasts from the German Federal Institute of Hydrology. Dry conditions are expected across the region this week, but river levels are poised to start rebounding by early October.