由乔·梅斯（Joe Mayes）和乔治·尼克松（George Nixon）报道：英国财政大臣约翰·希利（John Healey）在即将于下个月发布的预算案前发表的重要演讲中表示，安迪·伯纳姆（Andy Burnham）领导的新工党政府所倡导的乐观情绪必须通过严格的财政纪律来赢得公众的信任。
By Joe Mayes and George Nixon UK Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey said that the optimism Andy Burnham’s new Labour government is seeking to restore must be earned through fiscal discipline, in a major speech ahead of his budget next month.
“今天我想谈谈‘希望’背后的政治意义，”希利在周一于利物浦举行的工党大会上说道，他的讲话呼应了新首相团队所倡导的积极进取的精神。他强调，这种乐观情绪只能通过严格的财政纪律、出色的工作表现以及强劲的产业发展来实现。希利的这番讲话正值他为10月28日的预算案做准备的阶段——届时他计划推出一系列增税和削减支出的措施，以稳定英国的公共财政状况；这些措施的实施是由于美伊冲突导致英国借贷成本飙升所致。
“Today I want to talk about the politics of hope,” Healey said in his address to the Labour Party conference in Liverpool on Monday, echoing the can-do rhetoric the new prime ministerial team is seeking to promote. Healey said that would be earned “through fiscal discipline, through good work, through strong industries.” Healey’s appearing against the backdrop of preparations for his fiscal set piece on Oct. 28, for which the chancellor is drawing up a package of tax hikes and spending cuts to stabilize the UK public finances after a surge in borrowing costs driven by the ongoing US-Iran war.
此次预算案对希利和首相来说都至关重要：他们必须克制自伯纳姆成为首相以来推动支持率上升的乐观情绪，转而传达出更加务实的经济政策信息。希利明确表示：“我和首相都一致认为必须遵守财政纪律；失去对财政状况的控制是毫无进步意义的。”他还将英国改革党（Reform UK）的领袖奈杰尔·法拉奇（Nigel Farage）比作“拥有比特币账户的莉兹·特拉斯（Liz Truss）”。周一，随着石油和天然气价格的上涨，英国政府债券的收益率也跟随欧洲和美国的债券市场一同上升；其中，对利率变化尤为敏感的债券收益率涨幅最大，英国两年期国债的收益率上升了5个基点，达到4.91%。
The budget marks a high-stakes moment for Healey and the prime minister, who are having to caveat the boosterism that’s driven their poll bounce since Burnham became leader to a tougher message of hard choices and economic realism. “The prime minister and I are in lockstep that we will meet the fiscal rules,” Healey said, adding, “That commitment is so important. There is nothing progressive about losing control.” He characterized Reform UK leader Nigel Farage as “Liz Truss with a Bitcoin account.” The extent of the challenge continued to deepen on Monday, as UK government bond yields rose in line with European and US peers, following an increase in oil and natural gas prices. The move was led by more interest rate sensitive bonds, with UK two-year yields up as much as five basis points to 4.91%.
与瑞秋·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）去年春季发布的财务报告相比，更高的借贷成本是导致希利（Healey）陷入困境的主要原因。据估计，希利从里夫斯那里继承的236亿英镑（313亿美元）的缓冲资金已经减少了一半，这使他难以遵守政府的财政规定。他和伯纳姆（Burnham）下个月面临的一个关键决策是：他们应该采取哪些措施来重建这一缓冲资金，以维持投资者的信心。
Higher borrowing costs compared to Rachel Reeves’ last fiscal statement in the spring are the chief driver of the predicament facing Healey, who is estimated to have lost about half of the £23.6 billion ($31.3 billion) buffer he inherited from Reeves against the government’s main budget rule. A key decision he and Burnham face next month is how far they go to rebuild that buffer to keep investors on side.
“如果政府的财政空间进一步缩小，黄金市场（即金融市场）的反应将会非常负面，”CG资产管理公司的投资组合经理艾玛·莫里亚蒂（Emma Moriarty）说道。“要知道，200亿英镑的财政空间还算可以接受，而100亿英镑的财政空间就远远不够了。”工党大会期间，伯纳姆提出了一系列引人注目的新支出计划，尤其是关于“使用社会护理服务时无需付费”的提案；伯纳姆表示这些服务可以通过下次选举后征收的新税收来筹集资金。此外，伯纳姆还宣布了一项新的抵押贷款计划，旨在帮助首次购房者。这一消息导致巴雷特·雷德罗（Barratt Redrow Plc）和泰勒·温皮（Taylor Wimpey Plc）等房地产公司的股价在周一大幅上涨。
“Gilt markets wouldn’t react well to falling headroom,” said Emma Moriarty, portfolio manager at CG Asset Management, referring to the government’s margin against meeting its fiscal target. “Know that £20 billion is fine and £10 billion is not fine.” Labour’s conference has been marked by a series of eye-catching new spending proposals from Burnham, particularly the expensive idea of a social care service that is free at point of use, which Burnham has suggested could be funded by new taxes after the next election. Burnham also announced a new equity loan program to help first-time buyers, an announcement that caused shares in home-builders like Barratt Redrow Plc and Taylor Wimpey Plc to surge on Monday.