2026年中期选举在很大程度上已演变为一场关于哪个政党能说服选民对方脱离实际、过于极端且不具备执政能力的较量。目前，民主党正在赢得这场论战，其优势幅度之大，在2024年大选失利仅一年后，几乎无人能预料。
The 2026 midterms have largely become a contest over which party can persuade voters that the other is out of touch, too extreme and unfit to govern. Right now, Democrats are winning that argument by a margin few would have thought possible just one election after their 2024 defeat.
在最近的PBS/NPR/Marist民调中，全国范围内53%的选民在通用国会选票上选择了民主党，而共和党仅为41%。近期的一项Emerson民调显示，民主党拥有几乎相同的12个百分点优势。同样重要的是，独立选民正果断倒向民主党，在Emerson民调中民主党领先29个百分点，在Marist民调中领先25个百分点。
Nationally, 53 percent of voters chose Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, compared with 41 percent for Republicans, in recent PBS/NPR/Marist polling. A recent Emerson survey showed a virtually identical 12-point Democratic advantage. Just as important, independents are breaking decisively toward Democrats, favoring them by 29 points in Emerson’s survey and 25 points in the Marist poll.
根据RealClearPolitics的数据，在所有民调中，民主党在通用国会选票上保持9个百分点的领先优势。
Across all polls, Democrats hold a 9-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, according to RealClearPolitics.
回顾2018年，即民主党上一次“蓝色浪潮”，最终的通用国会民调平均值显示民主党领先7个百分点。诚然，鉴于两轮党派性的选区重划和选区划分大幅减少了具有竞争性的众议院选区数量，民主党不太可能重演当年增加41个席位的壮举。
Looking back at 2018, the last Democratic “blue wave,” the final generic congressional polling average gave Democrats a 7-point advantage. To be sure, a repeat of their 41-seat gain is unlikely because two more rounds of partisan gerrymandering and redistricting have sharply reduced the number of competitive House districts.
即便如此，民主党似乎已处于有利位置，能够夺取其获得多数席位所需的少数几个关键席位。
Even so, Democrats appear well positioned to capture the handful of seats they need for a majority.
参议院则是一项更具挑战性的任务。假设没有共和党人改投民主党，民主党需要赢得缅因州、密歇根州和得克萨斯州，外加阿拉斯加州、俄亥俄州或爱荷华州之一，才能夺取控制权。尽管如此，民主党能够拥有一条可行的获胜路径这一事实，本身就说明了共和党面临的政治局势之严峻。
The Senate is a more difficult challenge. Democrats need to win Maine, Michigan and Texas, plus Alaska, Ohio, or Iowa — assuming no Republican flips — to take control. Still, the fact that Democrats have a plausible route at all speaks to the depth of Republicans’ political concerns.
在缅因州，现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯（共和党）面对特洛伊·杰克逊（民主党）依然 formidable。杰克逊在格雷厄姆·普拉特纳令人震惊的崩盘后接替了其位置。在最近的《纽约时报》-锡耶纳大学民调中，柯林斯以49%对46%领先杰克逊。
In Maine, incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R) remains formidable against Troy Jackson (D), who replaced Graham Platner after his stunning collapse. Collins led Jackson 49 percent to 46 percent in recent New York Times-Siena polling.
但在无党派选民中，柯林斯的支持率高达51%，而其他候选人的支持率仅为45%；在自认为是独立选民的人群中，这些候选人的支持率则持平。鉴于民主党在争取独立选民支持方面具有优势，这表明柯林斯的个人魅力使她比大多数共和党候选人更具竞争力。
But Collins led among unaffiliated voters 51 percent to 45 percent, while the candidates were tied among self-identified independents. Given Democrats’ lead with independents on the generic ballot, this suggests that Collins’s personal brand gives her more resilience than most Republicans.
然而，柯林斯仍难以确保胜选。RealClearPolitics的民调显示，目前双方的支持率几乎持平，这凸显了即使在共和党阵营中实力最强的候选人，在当前的政治环境下也面临着巨大挑战。
Yet Collins is hardly safe. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows a dead heat, underscoring how even one of the Republican Party’s strongest candidates is struggling in this environment.
密歇根州的竞选局势可能最为激烈：民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）的进步派立场为共和党提供了机会，但他在各项民调中的平均领先优势仅不到3个百分点。Cook Political Report将这场竞选视为“胜负难料”的局面；尽管埃尔-赛义德在《纽约时报》的民调中领先5个百分点，但在独立选民中的优势已缩小至仅1个百分点。
Michigan may be the most contentious contest. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s progressive record gives Republicans an opening, but his average lead across polling is less than three points. Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up, and even though El-Sayed holds a 5-point lead in the New York Times survey, his advantage narrows to just 1 point among independents.
不过，密歇根州在过去的多次州级选举中一直是民主党的根据地——因此罗杰斯（Rogers）面临的挑战是：如何在不疏远特朗普支持者的前提下，与不受欢迎的共和党政府划清界限。
But Michigan is also a state Democrats have repeatedly carried in recent statewide elections, and the burden is on Rogers to separate himself from an unpopular Republican administration without alienating Trump’s base.
德克萨斯州的情况则更明显地反映了政治格局的巨大变化：自1993年以来，该州从未选出过民主党参议员。特朗普总统帮助现任共和党参议员约翰·科宁（John Cornyn）在初选中败给了肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）——后者是一个更具争议性、也远不如科宁受欢迎的候选人。
Texas — which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1993 — may be the clearest evidence of how dramatically the political terrain has shifted. President Trump helped engineer incumbent Republican John Cornyn’s primary defeat by Ken Paxton, a more polarizing and considerably less popular nominee.
根据RealClearPolitics汇编的最新10项德克萨斯州民调结果，民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）在9项民调中领先，另有1项结果持平。不过，他的平均领先优势仍在误差范围内；尽管德克萨斯州仍倾向于共和党，但这种变化趋势确实值得关注。
Of the 10 most recent Texas polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, Democrat James Talarico leads in nine, with one tie. However, his average advantage is within the margin of error, and Texas still leans Republican, but the pattern is significant.
塔拉里科在竞选中强调“选民负担的可承受性”，并将自己塑造成新一代务实派民主党领导者的形象。根据Marist大学的民调，39%的德克萨斯州选民表示他们的参议院投票主要是为了反对特朗普。
Talarico has run a competitive campaign by emphasizing affordability and presenting himself as a new generation of pragmatic Democratic leadership. Meanwhile, 39 percent of Texas voters say their Senate vote is primarily a vote against Trump, according to Marist polling.
在这场势均力敌的竞选中，这种激烈程度可能至关重要。对共和党而言，全国层面的背景更为令人担忧：特朗普的支持率落后21个百分点，仅有不到39%的美国人认可他的执政表现。
In a close contest, that intensity could matter enormously. The national backdrop is even more troubling for Republicans: Trump’s approval rating is 21 points underwater, with fewer than 39 percent of Americans approving of his performance.
共和党候选人似乎意识到了这一危险。上周，罗杰斯与俄亥俄州参议员乔恩·赫斯特（共和党）——他正与俄亥俄州前参议员谢罗德·布朗（民主党）展开一场艰难的选战——在密歇根州与特朗普决裂，呼吁结束伊朗战争。
Republican candidates appear to understand the danger. Last week, Rogers and Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) — locked in a difficult race against former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) — broke with Trump in Michigan by calling for an end to the Iran war.
就在几周前，特朗普还敦促共和党人投票时要把他当作候选人一样对待。这些公开决裂表明，处境脆弱的候选人认为，他们最好的机会在于与特朗普保持距离。
Only weeks after Trump urged Republicans to vote as though he were on the ballot, those public breaks suggest vulnerable candidates believe their best chance is to create distance from him.
共和党人还在保卫那些通常不太受关注的阵地。库克政治报告最近将南卡罗来纳州和堪萨斯州的倾向性向民主党方向调整了一档。这两个州仍很可能由共和党保住，但伊朗战争对柴油价格的影响正在拖累农业大州。库克报告将阿拉斯加州、俄亥俄州和艾奥瓦州评为势均力敌。
Republicans are also defending terrain that ordinarily receives little attention. Cook Political Report recently shifted South Carolina and Kansas one notch toward Democrats. Both remain likely Republican holds, but the Iran war’s effect on diesel prices is weighing on agriculture-heavy states. Alaska, Ohio and Iowa are rated toss-ups by Cook.
最终，数据表明民主党在赢得众议院控制权方面占据优势，而参议院的情况则更为复杂。共和党将继续将民主党提名人描绘成极端分子，而这些攻击可能在某些摇摆州找到共鸣的受众。
Ultimately, the data suggests Democrats are favored to take the House, while the Senate remains more complicated. Republicans will continue portraying Democratic nominees as extreme, and those attacks may find receptive audiences in some battleground states.
尽管如此，更宏观的叙事是：选民对共和党的执政感到不满，对特朗普持怀疑态度，并且越来越愿意考虑民主党的替代方案——即使是在那些曾经看似遥不可及的地方。
Still, the broader story is that voters are dissatisfied with Republican governance, skeptical of Trump and increasingly willing to consider Democratic alternatives — even in places that once seemed beyond reach.
最可能的结果仍然是国会两院分治。然而，在距离选举还有五周之际，民主党既拥有势头，也拥有通往更广泛胜利的可靠路径。
The most likely outcome may still be split control of Congress. Yet, with five weeks remaining, Democrats have both momentum and a credible path to a broader victory.
问题在于，他们能否让选举焦点保持在可负担性、执政能力以及对特朗普的制衡上——正是这些问题最初创造了这一机会。
The question is whether they can keep the election focused on affordability, competence and checks on Trump — the issues that created this opportunity in the first place.
道格拉斯·E·施恩（Douglas E. Schoen）和卡莉·库珀曼（Carly Cooperman）是民意调查专家，同时也是总部位于纽约的施恩-库珀曼研究公司（Schoen Cooperman Research）的合伙人。他们合著了《美国：团结还是灭亡》（America: Unite or Die）一书。
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”