特朗普如何赢得他梦寐以求的“历史纪念碑”?显然,特朗普希望自己能被铭记为一位伟大的总统。然而,这位“伟大的领导者”必须明白:他为自己树立的这些纪念碑其实建立在“沙子上”——这些纪念碑随时可能被摧毁;他的名字可以从建筑物上抹去,他的大理石纪念碑也可能被拆毁;他执政期间的所有实物证据都可能被彻底抹去。如果他继续担任这个国家希望遗忘的总统,这或许就是美国对他的“惩罚”。
How Trump can earn the monument he so desperately desires President Trump clearly wants to be remembered as a great president. However, the great builder must know that the monuments he is erecting to himself sit on foundations of sand. His name can be removed from buildings. His marble memorials can be torn down. The physical evidence of his presidency can be erased. That may be America’s retribution if he remains the president the nation wants to forget.
不过,他仍有一个机会去成就一番伟大的事业:通过带领世界摆脱三大生存危机的威胁,他可以在历史上赢得英雄的地位。这三大危机分别是:核武器威胁的不断升级、人类对地球生态系统的破坏日益严重,以及人工智能可能超越人类控制范围的潜在风险。
Yet he has an opportunity to do something great. He could earn a hero’s place in history by leading the world back from the brink of three existential crises: the escalating threat of nuclear weapons, the growing violation of the planet’s ecological boundaries, and the potential that artificial intelligence will exceed human control.
虽然化解这些危机是一项艰巨的任务,但特朗普应该勇于接受这个挑战。
Defusing them would be a mission impossible, but one Trump should accept.
这三大危机有一个共同点:它们都是由于科技发展速度超过了道德规范、相关政策以及政治意愿的控制能力所导致的。美国在引发这些危机的过程中扮演了重要角色。而化解这些危机的关键在于与中国合作。
The three crises have several things in common. Each is the consequence of allowing technology to advance faster than the morality, policies and political will to control them. The United States has played a role in causing them. And the key to defusing them involves collaboration with China.
核武器问题:美国和俄罗斯掌握了全球近86%的核武器。这两个核大国之间现有的军控协议已于今年2月到期。特朗普表示愿意达成新的军控协议,但他坚持要求中国必须参与其中。然而,中国的核武库正在迅速扩张,而且中国对与美国、俄罗斯共同设定核武器数量限制几乎没有兴趣。
Nuclear weapons: The U.S. and Russia control nearly 86 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. The only remaining arms-control agreement between the two nuclear superpowers expired in February. Trump has indicated willingness to reach a new agreement, but he insists that China be part of it. However, China is rapidly expanding its much smaller arsenal, and has shown little interest in joining the U.S. and Russia in setting numerical limits.
根据1970年《不扩散核武器条约》的规定,核武器国家将其核武库从1986年的70,300枚核弹头削减至目前的12,100多枚。然而,这一进展已经停滞,世界正面临新一轮军备竞赛的威胁。核大国正在升级其核武器;更多国家也开始考虑拥有核武器;而特朗普则提议建立所谓的“金色防御体系”(Golden Dome),但批评者认为这一方案既不可行,还可能破坏全球稳定。
Under the 1970 Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, nuclear-armed countries have reduced their arsenals from 70,300 warheads in 1986 to just over 12,100 today. But progress has stalled, and the world stands at the brink of a new arms race. The nuclear powers are modernizing their weapons, more nations are thinking about acquiring them, and Trump wants to build a “Golden Dome,” a theoretical new layer of U.S. defenses that critics consider unworkable and potentially destabilizing.
相反,特朗普可以提议美国与中国共同将各自的核弹头数量限制在仅用于应对攻击所需的最低限度。随后,两国可以促使俄罗斯也做出同样的承诺。如果俄罗斯同意,这三个主要核大国就能推动全球核裁军进程重新走上正轨。
Instead, Trump could propose that the U.S. and China agree to limit their warheads to the minimum needed to retaliate against an attack. Then, they would approach Russia to make the same commitment. If it agreed, the three major nuclear powers could put the world back on track to complete nuclear disarmament.
温室气体问题:美国和中国此前曾有过合作。2014年,奥巴马总统与中国国家主席习近平达成协议,共同大幅减少温室气体排放,并合作开发清洁能源技术。这一协议为近200个国家在次年签署《巴黎气候协定》奠定了基础。特朗普可以提议与习近平重新确认并履行2014年的协议,让美国重新加入《巴黎气候协定》。他应停止利用联邦政策压制清洁能源的发展,而是让各种清洁能源技术在成本和性能上展开竞争。虽然特朗普此前曾声称气候变化是一场骗局,但这并非他第一次在重大问题上改变立场。他可以解释采取行动的经济合理性:美国有机会从全球每年投入的2.2万亿美元清洁能源投资中分得一杯羹。
Greenhouse gases: The U.S. and China have collaborated before. In 2014, President Obama reached an agreement with China’s Xi Jinping to significantly reduce greenhouse gas pollution and to cooperate on developing clean-energy technologies. Their agreement created momentum for nearly 200 countries to sign the Paris Climate Agreement the following year. Trump could propose that he and Xi renew the 2014 agreement. He would re-enroll the U.S. in the Paris Agreement. He would stop using federal policy to suppress clean energy while promoting fossil fuels, and let the technologies compete on cost and performance. Trump would have to reverse his position that climate change is a hoax, but it wouldn’t be the first time he pivoted on a major issue. He could explain the business case for action: America’s opportunity to capture a share of the $2.2 trillion the world is investing annually in clean energy.
此外,特朗普和中国还可以共同探讨另一个更为严重的环境问题——即人类活动对地球六大生命支持系统(包括陆地生态系统、生物多样性以及海洋酸化)造成的严重破坏。
Trump could propose that he and Xi renew the 2014 agreement. He would re-enroll the U.S. in the Paris Agreement. He would stop using federal policy to suppress clean energy while promoting fossil fuels, and let the technologies compete on cost and performance. Trump would have to reverse his position that climate change is a hoax, but it wouldn’t be the first time he pivoted on a major issue. He could explain the business case for action: America’s opportunity to capture a share of the $2.2 trillion the world is investing annually in clean energy.
人工智能:核武器与气候变化多年来一直像达摩克利斯之剑一样悬在人类文明的上空。我们有机会在人工智能引发灾难性危机之前阻止它的发生。多位人工智能行业的领军人物呼吁减缓前沿人工智能技术的发展速度,直到人类能够更好地掌握对其的控制手段。然而,特朗普却希望加快研发进度,以防止中国在这方面取得领先地位。这种竞争让人联想到美国在二战期间急于研发核武器、试图超越纳粹德国的情景。
Next, Trump and Xi could agree to demonstrate solutions to an even larger environmental issue: the six other global life-support systems that civilization has “massively breached,” including land system change, introduction of novel entities and ocean acidification. Artificial intelligence: Nuclear weapons and climate change have hung over civilization like Damocles sword for generations. We have an opportunity to prevent an existential AI crisis before it develops.
中国和美国已经达成共识:绝不能允许人工智能系统控制核武器。今年7月,中国与其他28个国家共同签署了一份协议,旨在推动人工智能技术的国际合作与全球治理,确保其发展朝着“有益、安全、公平”的方向进行。特朗普完全可以接受这一目标,并提议中美两国携手合作,减缓前沿人工智能技术的发展速度,同时加速开发那些具有有限应用范围但能带来互利效果的AI技术(例如用于分析气候数据或验证各国是否遵守国际条约的技术)。
Several AI industry leaders have called for slowing the development of frontier machine intelligence until they better understand how to keep it under human control. However, Trump wants to go full speed to prevent China from taking the lead. The race is reminiscent of America’s hurry during World War II to develop nuclear weapons before Nazi Germany could do so.
如果特朗普能够完成他的任期,他还有两年时间来实现自己梦寐以求的历史地位。能否成功带领世界摆脱这三重危机,将是对他谈判能力的终极考验——这也将是他留下的、比那些为自己建造的纪念碑更有价值的遗产。
China and the U.S. have already agreed that AI should not be allowed to control nuclear weapons. In July, China signed an agreement with 28 other countries to promote international cooperation and global governance of AI in a “beneficial, safe, and fair direction.” Trump could embrace that goal and propose that the U.S. and China collaborate to slow Frontier AI but accelerate what could be called “Bounded AI” — narrow but mutually beneficial applications like analyzing climate data to verifying compliance with international treaties.
威廉·S·贝克尔(William S. Becker)是《Democracy Unchained: How to Rebuild Government for the People》一书的联合编辑及撰稿人,同时也是《Democracy in a Hotter Time》一书的撰稿人。他曾担任威斯康星州司法部的高级官员,目前担任“总统气候行动项目”(Presidential Climate Action Project)的执行主任。
Assuming he finishes his term, Trump has two years left to earn the place in history he so badly wants. Pulling the world back from these three crises would be the ultimate test of his deal-making skills — and a legacy much more deserving than the monuments he’s building to himself. William S. Becker is co-editor of and a contributor to “Democracy Unchained: How to Rebuild Government for the People,” and a contributor to “Democracy in a Hotter Time.” He previously served as a senior official in the Wisconsin Department of Justice. He is currently executive director of the Presidential Climate Action Project.