全球对人工智能相关产品的需求强于预期，促使贸易发展局大幅上调2026年香港出口增长预测至最高47%。
Stronger-than-expected global demand for artificial intelligence-related products has prompted the Trade Development Council to sharply raise its full-year forecast for Hong Kong export growth in 2026 to as much as 47 per cent.
此前，贸发局已于6月将年中预测上调至20%增长，高于早前估计的8%至9%。
The latest revision follows the council in June raising its midyear forecast to 20 per cent growth, from an earlier estimate of 8 to 9 per cent.
该局最新一项针对香港主要出口商的调查亦发现，他们的商业信心和市场预期在2026年第三季度保持强劲和乐观。
Its latest survey of the city’s major exporters also found that their business confidence and market expectations had remained strong and optimistic in the third quarter of 2026.
贸发局周一发布季度研究报告时表示，已“大幅上调”2026年香港商品出口增长预测至42%至47%之间。
Releasing its quarterly research report on Monday, the council said it had “substantially revised upwards” its forecast for Hong Kong’s merchandise export growth in 2026 to a range between 42 per cent and 47 per cent.
报告称：“人工智能驱动的相关电子产品需求仍然强劲，带动香港电子产品出口增长势头强劲，预计在2026年余下时间将会持续。”
“The AI-driven demand for related electronic products remains robust, leading to strong growth momentum for Hong Kong’s electronic exports, and it is expected to persist in the remainder of 2026,” the report said.
研究还发现，来自香港主要出口市场（包括中国内地和东盟）的广泛需求也可能持续。
The broad-based demand from the city’s key export markets, including mainland China and the Asean bloc, was also likely to continue, the research found.
贸发局研究总监庞溟表示：“今年香港出口强劲增长，主要受全球对人工智能相关产品和基础设施的需求迅速加快所推动。”
“The strong Hong Kong export growth recorded this year has been driven primarily by the rapid acceleration of global demand for AI-related products and infrastructure,” said Bruce Pang Ming, the council’s director of research.
“半导体、存储芯片、电脑零部件、电讯设备及其他先进电子产品的需求扩张远快于预期，为香港出口提供了重大支持。”贸发局还指出，此举反映香港出口表现好于预期，2026年首八个月同比增长42.5%。
“Demand for semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, telecommunications equipment and other advanced electronics expanded much faster than expected, providing substantial support to Hong Kong’s exports.”The council also noted that this move reflected the city’s better-than-anticipated export performance, with 42.5 per cent year-on-year growth over the first eight months of 2026.
2026年首八个月，电子产品占香港总出口约80%。贸发局数据显示，电子产品出口同比增长52.8%。
Electronics accounted for about 80 per cent of Hong Kong’s total exports in the first eight months of 2026. Exports of electronicsed 52.8 per cent year‑on‑year growth, according to the council.
“主要市场包括中国内地、东盟和美国，这反映了全球科技供应链的强劲需求，”该报告称。
“Major markets included the [mainland], Asean and the US, reflecting strong demand across global technology supply chains,” it said.
“特别值得注意的是，全球范围内对人工智能基础设施、云计算、数据中心和下一代数字技术的投资不断增加，相关产品的表现尤为强劲。”
“Particularly notable was the strong performance of items related to growing investments in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, data centres and next‑generation digital technologies worldwide.
“人工智能相关电子产品在香港出口中所占的份额正日益显著。”据该委员会称，尽管美国对包括中国内地和香港在内的多个贸易伙伴的进口商品加征了12.5%的“301条款”关税，但出口仍实现了增长。
“AI‑related electronics now account for an increasingly significant share of Hong Kong’s exports.”The growth came despite the United States imposing an additional 12.5 per cent Section 301 tariff on imports from a number of trading partners, including the mainland and Hong Kong, according to the council.
此类关税是华盛顿根据1974年《贸易法》第301条款征收的额外关税，旨在应对被认为对美国商业造成负担或限制的外国贸易行为。
Such tariffs are additional duties imposed by Washington under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to address foreign trade practices that are deemed to burden or restrict US commerce.
彭耀佳表示：“虽然最新的‘301条款’关税措施给企业增加了一定程度的不确定性，但预计对香港出口的直接影响有限。”
“While the latest Section 301 tariff measures have added a degree of uncertainty for businesses, the direct impact on Hong Kong exports is expected to be limited,” Pang said.
“香港对美出口的很大一部分产品属于关税豁免安排的范畴，特别是在科技和电子领域。”他指出，香港对美出口依然保持韧性，2026年前八个月同比增长了63.4%。吴镜聪报道
“A substantial share of Hong Kong’s exports to the US consists of products covered by tariff exemption arrangements, particularly in the technology and electronics sectors.”He noted that Hong Kong’s exports to the US had remained resilient, rising by 63.4 per cent year on year in the first eight months of 2026. By Ng Kang-chung