对于银行来说，情况似乎已经够糟了，而人工智能可能给整个行业带来更大的麻烦。景顺KBW银行ETF（KBWB）上周下跌2.3%，连续第三周走低，追平了该基金自3月中旬以来最长的连跌纪录。本月迄今，KBWB已下跌5.7%，势将创下自2025年3月暴跌近10%以来最差的月度表现。高盛和美国银行是该基金本月表现最差的成分股，各自下跌超过8%。摩根士丹利9月也下跌近8%。金融板块的其他部分同样受到冲击。券商股嘉信理财和盈透证券本月分别下跌9.8%和8.3%。KBWB 3M mountain KBWB三个月走势图这些下跌的罪魁祸首是什么？两个字：利率。美国国债收益率近期飙升至多年高位，因交易员押注油价高企将促使美联储进一步收紧货币政策。利率上升可能放缓银行的贷款增长，损害其利润。阿波罗全球管理公司还提出了另一个担忧：“如果每个家庭都使用AI代理来优化其现金余额的回报，银行可能会失去它们赖以发放贷款的大量廉价存款，这将对整个金融体系构成问题，”该公司首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克写道。斯洛克指出，许多金融科技公司提供的收益率远高于传统银行。例如，他指出SoFi Technologies的存款年化收益率为4.5%。而全国平均水平仅为0.1%，他在一篇题为“代理式银行挤兑即将到来？”的文章中表示。“Muse和类似的代理式AI助手可能很快就会将家庭现金自动转入收益率在3.3%至5.0%之间的账户，而不是全国支票账户0.1%的平均水平，”斯洛克指出。诚然，目前没有迹象表明银行挤兑正在发生——或者会在短期内发生。
As if things couldn't get worse for banks, artificial intelligence could present a problem for the group. The Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) fell 2.3% last week, marking its third straight weekly decline. That matches the fund's longest losing streak since mid-March. Month to date, the KBWB is down 5.7%, on pace for its worst monthly performance since March 2025, when it plunged nearly 10%. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are the fund's worst performers this month, falling more than 8% each. Morgan Stanley is also down nearly 8% in September. Other parts of the financial sector have also been hit. Brokerage stocks Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers are off by 9.8% and 8.3%, respectively, this month. KBWB 3M mountain KBWB 3-month chart What's the culprit for these declines? Two words: Interest rates. U.S. Treasury yields have soared to multiyear highs of late, as traders bet elevated oil prices will lead the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy further. Higher rates may slow loan growth for banks, hurting their bottom lines. Apollo Global Management is also raising another concern: "If every household used AI agents to optimize the return on their cash balances, banks could lose a large share of the cheap deposits they rely on to make loans, which would be a problem for the entire financial system," wrote Torsten Slok, the firm's chief economist. Slok pointed out that many fintech companies offer much more attractive yields than traditional banks. Deposits on SoFi Technologies , for example, have an APY of 4.5%, he noted. The national average, meanwhile, is 0.1%, he said in a post titled "Is an Agentic Bank Run Coming?" "Muse and similar agentic AI assistants could soon sweep household cash automatically into accounts paying 3.3% to 5.0%, instead of the 0.1% national average on checking accounts," Slok noted. To be sure, there are no signs that a run on the banks is happening — or will happen — anytime soon. However, if Slok is correct, agentic AI could make it easier for consumers to move money into higher-yielding fintech deposit accounts — putting pressure on banks.
然而，如果斯洛克的观点正确，代理型人工智能可能会让消费者更容易将资金转入收益更高的金融科技存款账户——从而给银行带来压力。
As if things couldn't get worse for banks, artificial intelligence could present a problem for the group. The Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) fell 2.3% last week, marking its third straight weekly decline. That matches the fund's longest losing streak since mid-March. Month to date, the KBWB is down 5.7%, on pace for its worst monthly performance since March 2025, when it plunged nearly 10%. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America are the fund's worst performers this month, falling more than 8% each. Morgan Stanley is also down nearly 8% in September. Other parts of the financial sector have also been hit. Brokerage stocks Charles Schwab and Interactive Brokers are off by 9.8% and 8.3%, respectively, this month. KBWB 3M mountain KBWB 3-month chart What's the culprit for these declines? Two words: Interest rates. U.S. Treasury yields have soared to multiyear highs of late, as traders bet elevated oil prices will lead the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy further. Higher rates may slow loan growth for banks, hurting their bottom lines. Apollo Global Management is also raising another concern: "If every household used AI agents to optimize the return on their cash balances, banks could lose a large share of the cheap deposits they rely on to make loans, which would be a problem for the entire financial system," wrote Torsten Slok, the firm's chief economist. Slok pointed out that many fintech companies offer much more attractive yields than traditional banks. Deposits on SoFi Technologies , for example, have an APY of 4.5%, he noted. The national average, meanwhile, is 0.1%, he said in a post titled "Is an Agentic Bank Run Coming?" "Muse and similar agentic AI assistants could soon sweep household cash automatically into accounts paying 3.3% to 5.0%, instead of the 0.1% national average on checking accounts," Slok noted. To be sure, there are no signs that a run on the banks is happening — or will happen — anytime soon. However, if Slok is correct, agentic AI could make it easier for consumers to move money into higher-yielding fintech deposit accounts — putting pressure on banks.