杰西卡·门顿报道：摩根大通的交易部门将他们对美国股市的看法从“战术中性”调整为“看涨”，认为经济数据和企业盈利将支撑股市的持续繁荣。
By Jessica Menton The trading desk at JPMorgan Chase & Co. flipped its view on US equities to bullish from tactically neutral, saying economic data and earnings will underpin a persistent market boom.
超出预期的经济活动、消费者的韧性、强劲的企业利润增长，以及债券收益率可能趋于稳定的迹象，促使该银行的交易员们（由美国市场情报主管安德鲁·泰勒领导）在周五美国就业数据公布前改变了他们的谨慎态度。
Stronger-than-expected economic activity, consumer resilience, robust corporate profit growth and signs that bond yields may stabilize drove the bank’s traders, led by Andrew Tyler, head of US market intelligence, to drop their cautious stance in the lead-up to Friday’s US jobs report.
泰勒在周一上午给客户的一份报告中写道：“目前市场环境更为有利：债券收益率已经趋于稳定，油价也可能呈下跌趋势，尽管这种下跌过程可能会比较波动。”
“We now see a more favorable setup for markets as bond yields find a level and oil prices are likely to trend lower, albeit in a choppy fashion,” Tyler wrote in a note to clients on Monday morning.
泰勒曾在6月初因美国股市可能经历多周下跌而采取谨慎态度；同样，他在8月底也因美联储主席凯文·沃什在杰克逊霍尔会议上发表的鹰派言论（该言论加剧了市场对今年加息的预期）而对美国股市持谨慎态度。
Tyler, who correctly turned tactically cautious in early June ahead of a multiweek selloff in US stocks, also previously took a cautious view toward US stocks in late August after a hawkish speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, which had led traders to increase bets on interest-rate hikes this year.
不过，最近似乎没有什么能真正吓到这些交易员了——自去年10月以来，标准普尔500指数已经连续6个月没有出现过单日跌幅超过1%的情况（根据彭博社的数据，这是自2025年10月以来最长的一段平稳期）。该指数上一次出现较大跌幅是在7月29日（美联储利率决策日），当日指数下跌了1.5%。
Nothing seems to faze traders lately; it’s been six months since the index suffered back-to-back declines of at least 1%. The S&P 500 Index hasn’t suffered a 1% decline in 41 sessions through Friday — its longest stretch since October 2025, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The last time it suffered a big loss was on July 29, a Fed rate-decision day, when the index slumped 1.5%.
随着时间进入10月（历史上美国股市波动性最大的月份），华尔街正面临着一系列风险：从人工智能相关交易的可持续性，到因通胀持续高企而可能带来的更高利率威胁……泰勒表示，短期内推动股市上涨的因素包括：周五备受期待的美国就业数据公布、10月14日发布的消费者价格指数报告，以及10月28日美联储的决策。经济学家预计，美国雇主在9月份的就业报告中新增了9万个就业岗位；而8月份的就业数据曾意外地增长了16.2万个岗位。
As the calendar flips to October — historically the most volatile month for US stocks — Wall Street is grappling with a series of risks, from the durability of the artificial-intelligence trade to the threat of higher interest rates as inflation remains sticky.
在科技行业方面，泰勒认为半导体类股票的涨幅可能会更大，同时那些被称为“Magnificent Seven”（七大领先科技股）的公司有望跑赢整个科技板块的表现。他还指出：“人工智能（AI）这一投资主题可能会持续下去，我们倾向于持有相关股票。”
Short-term catalysts for the stock market, Tyler says, include Friday’s much-anticipated US jobs print, followed by the next report on the consumer price index, due on Oct. 14, and then a fresh Fed decision on Oct. 28. Economists estimate that US employers added 90,000 jobs in the September payrolls report after an unexpected jump of 162,000 jobs in August.
泰勒写道：“短期内我们仍看好科技行业，因为科技公司的盈利情况有望为股市提供进一步的支持。只有当收益率曲线（yield curve）出现明显上升时，周期性行业（cyclical industries）才可能实现持续上涨；如果不考虑与AI相关的投资机会，鉴于银行业正在经历增长复苏、收益率曲线可能进一步陡峭化以及资本市场前景较为乐观，我们更看好银行业。”
Within technology, there is likely to be a broadening with semiconductor shares and the potential for the so-called Magnificent Seven companies to outperform the tech tape, Tyler said, adding that “the AI theme is likely to persist and we like owning the theme.”
泰勒表示，他们仍然将科技行业视为核心长期投资目标，但不会再采取“做多科技股、同时做空罗素2000指数（Russell 2000 Index）”的策略。他补充说：“由于油价下跌或收益率下降可能带来挤压风险（squeeze risk），因此需要通过衍生品工具来应对这种风险。”
“We like tech in the near-term with earnings likely to provide additional support,” Tyler wrote. “You need to see the yield curve bull steepening to see a persistent rally in cyclicals; excluding AI-related plays, we favor banks given the growth reboot, potentially steeper yield curve and favorable capital markets outlook.” Tyler says they still like tech as a core long but would no longer pair it with a short on the Russell 2000 Index, “given squeeze risk from a move lower in oil / yields, which points to using a derivative expression to play the squeeze,” he added.