作者：乔丹·菲茨杰拉德。5月以来，CarMax股价不断攀升，这家陷入困境的汽车经销商正试图重振业务。然而，日益严峻的经济问题以及摇摆不定的消费者情绪可能威胁其复苏。
By Jordan Fitzgerald CarMax Inc. stock has revved higher since May as the struggling car seller attempts to revive it’s business, however, mounting economic woes and stuttering consumer sentiment could threaten its recovery.
截至2026年，这家总部位于弗吉尼亚州的公司股价一路上涨，跑赢了基准的标普500指数。CarMax的攀升体现了投资者对新任首席执行官基思·巴尔及其推动公司扭转局面能力的乐观预期。
Shares of the Virginia-based firm have climbed in 2026 so far, beating a advance in the benchmark S&P 500 index. CarMax’s run up exemplifies investor optimism around new chief executive officer, Keith Barr, and his ability to execute a turnaround.
去年11月，在销售下滑、股价走弱之际，CarMax解聘了时任首席执行官，并任命巴尔在2月接掌公司。投资者和分析师期待在周二的电话会议上进一步了解他的四大支柱战略框架，同时也会关注他对美国消费者趋势的评论。
CarMax tapped Barr to lead the firm in February after firing his predecessor amid sagging sales and stock weakness in November. Investors and analysts are eager for more insight into his four-pillar strategic framework on Tuesday’s call and will also be mindful of any commentary on US consumer trends.
巴尔上任以来，汽车行业的宏观环境变得更加复杂。美国联邦储备委员会加息，这可能导致汽车月供上涨。燃油成本居高不下，推高了加油价格，美国消费者也愈发谨慎。
Since Barr has taken charge, the macro environment for autos has grown more complex. The US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, which can lead to more expensive car payments. Elevated fuel costs increase the price at the pump, and the US consumer is growing more wary.
随着宏观环境恶化，这份财报可能释放一个重要信号：CarMax是否真的正在上演灰姑娘式的逆袭，还是注定会重新变回南瓜。
As the macro environment withers, this earnings report could offer an important signal as to whether CarMax is really in the midst of a Cinderella story or if it’s bound to turn back into a pumpkin.
据彭博汇总的数据，TheStreet预计CarMax第二季度利润将同比增长近12%，营收增长6.7%。然而，近期业绩即便是在巴尔任内，也未能让投资者满意。过去四个季度中，有几个季度的利润即便高于预期，CarMax股价仍在发布财报后下跌。
The Street expects CarMax’s second-quarter profits to rise nearly 12% on 6.7% revenue growth year-over-year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. However, recent results, even those under Barr’s tenure, have underwhelmed investors. For the past four quarters, several of which notched a profit beat, CarMax stock has declined after reporting.
摩根士丹利的分析师丹妮拉·海吉安（Daniela Haigian）在9月23日发布的报告中写道：“除了当前的季度业绩外，更重要的问题是：公司近期业绩的改善是源于结构性因素，还是周期性因素。随着市场讨论从最初的‘业绩回升’阶段转向更深层次的议题，这一区分变得越来越重要。”
“Beyond the quarter, the bigger debate is whether recent improvement is structural or cyclical,” Morgan Stanley analyst Daniela Haigian wrote in a Sept. 23 note. “This distinction is increasingly important as the stock debate moves beyond the initial return to growth halo.”
在周三发布的报告中，海吉安上调了对这家汽车销售公司的股价预期，但依然维持其‘中性’评级。摩根大通的拉贾特·古普塔（Rajat Gupta）也表达了类似的观点：他上调了该公司的股价预期及盈利预测，同时仍维持‘中性’评级。古普塔指出，CarMax受益于“行业环境的支持以及公司自身的运营效率”，不过他认为还需要更多证据来证实这一观点。海吉安和古普塔并非个例——尽管近期股价有所上涨，但彭博社追踪的21位分析师中仍有16位建议投资者继续持有该股票。
In the Wednesday note, Haigian boosted her price target on the car-seller but retained an equal weight rating. JPMorgan’s Rajat Gupta issued a similar call inflating his target and estimates and maintaining his neutral stance the week prior. Gupta said that CarMax is reaping the benefits of “a combination of supporting industry backdrop and company-specific execution” though there are “more proof points needed.”Haigian and Gupta are not standing on the sidelines alone; despite the recent rally, 16 of the 21 analysts tracked by Bloomberg recommend holding the stock.
随着CarMax股价的飙升，其竞争对手的业绩却并不理想：在线汽车零售巨头Carvana公司的股价今年以来持续下跌；AutoNation公司、Asbury Automotive Group公司和Group 1 Automotive公司的股价在同一时期也出现了不同程度的下滑。
As CarMax’s stock has surged, its peers haven’t been so lucky. Shares of online auto retail giant Carvana Co. have tumbled year-to-date. AutoNation Inc., Asbury Automotive Group Inc., Group 1 Automotive Inc. sank , , and , respectively, over the same period.
目前，CarMax的市盈率约为19倍，是2025年最低点时的两倍多。从这个角度来看，CarMax的股票相比Nvidia公司（这家芯片巨头）来说，显然更具投资价值。
Meanwhile, CarMax’s forward price-to-earnings ratio hovers around 19, more than double 2025’s nadir. On that basis, CarMax stock is a more expensive buy than the Magnificent Seven chip titan Nvidia Corp.
Nationwide Funds Group的首席策略师马克·哈克特（Mark Hackett）表示，CarMax的业绩表现可以反映出利率和油价变化对经济中低收入群体的影响。他认为，在所谓的“K形”经济格局下，利率上升和油价上涨可能会抑制消费者的购买力。
Mark Hackett, chief strategist at Nationwide Funds Group, said the company’s results can provide a read-through on whether interest rates and oil prices are tightening wallets on the lower end of the so-called “K-shaped” economy.
从某种角度来看，CarMax等二手车销售公司反而可能从消费者购买力下降中受益——因为预算有限的消费者更倾向于选择价格较低的二手车。不过，根据JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC的首席市场策略师迈克尔·奥罗克（Michael O’Rourke）的分析，如果消费者的经济状况进一步恶化，他们可能根本不会愿意购买高价值商品。
CarMax and other purveyors of used vehicles, in some ways, can stand to benefit from consumer weakness; buyers on a budget are more likely to consider cheaper, pre-owned options when shopping for cars. However, if customers become too constrained, they’re less likely to purchase big-ticket items at all, according to Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC.
“收益报告的发布频率很低，”奥罗克（O’Rourke）说道，“在这种充满不确定性的市场环境中，管理层对消费者市场的任何评论都极具参考价值。”
“The earnings calendar is sparse,” O’Rourke said. “Any management commentary on the consumer is valuable insight in such a fluid environment.”