根据亚历山德拉·米利亚乔(Alessandra Migliaccio)的报道,总理乔尔吉娅·梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)即将公布的预算案将包含多项减税措施,同时旨在向投资者表明意大利的财政状况仍处于可控范围内。
By Alessandra Migliaccio Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s upcoming budget will lay out multiple tax cuts, while aiming to reassure investors that Italy’s finances will remain under control.
据知情人士透露,这份2027年的财政计划是梅洛尼在明年大选前的最后一份预算案,其主要内容包括:通过经济增速超过预期来为减税措施提供资金支持、逐步缩小财政赤字(使其符合欧盟规定的标准),以及逐步降低国家债务水平。由于相关讨论仍在进行中,这些人士要求匿名。由于预算案尚未最终定稿,财政部也拒绝对此发表评论。
The premier’s 2027 fiscal plan, the last before general elections next year, will feature giveaway measures primarily funded by faster-than-expected growth, a deficit narrowing to European Union limits, and debt falling in due course, people familiar with the matter said. They asked not to be identified because discussions on the matter are ongoing. The Finance Ministry declined to comment as the budget is still being drafted.
这一财政方案旨在帮助梅洛尼实现连任目标——尽管她的三党联盟内部存在分歧,且她还面临一位极端民族主义者的挑战。
Those parameters will define a public-finance package for Italy designed to put Meloni on track for re-election just as her three-party coalition faces internal squabbling and an ultra-nationalist challenger to its support.
在当前全球债券收益率上升、以及对法国等其他欧元区成员国监管日益严格的背景下,梅洛尼及其财政部长詹卡洛·焦尔盖蒂(Giancarlo Giorgetti)正努力安抚紧张的投资者情绪。
She and her finance minister, Giancarlo Giorgetti, are also trying to placate jittery investors at a time of rising global bond yields and increased scrutiny on other indebted euro-zone members such as France.
梅洛尼通过一系列针对公民和企业的减税措施来争取选民支持,目的是遏制由前将军罗伯托·瓦纳奇(Roberto Vannacci)领导的“国家未来党”(National Future Party)的崛起;该政党在最近的市场调查中的支持率已上升至约8%。
Meloni is trying to woo voters with giveaway measures across the board, for citizens as well as companies, aiming to keep at bay the resurgent National Future party led by former general Roberto Vannacci. The group has risen to around 8% in recent polls.
政府此前已表示计划扩大所得税征收范围,让更多人享受到减税优惠——这正是梅洛尼的核心承诺之一。具体而言,对于年收入在5万1欧元(56,900美元)至6万欧元之间的纳税人,所得税税率将降至33%。去年,这一税级的税率同样被下调至33%;不过进一步扩大征税范围被认为会带来过高的财政成本。
The government has already said it wants to widen an income-tax bracket to include more people, thus delivering on one of Meloni’s signature promises. It would cut levies to 33% for earnings between €50,001 ($56,900) and €60,000 euros. Last year, the same measure was delivered for the category between €28,001 and €50,000, but a further widening of that bracket was deemed too costly.
目前,意大利的另外两个所得税等级分别为:年收入不超过2.8万欧元的纳税人需缴纳23%的所得税,年收入超过5万1欧元的纳税人需缴纳43%的所得税。据知情人士透露,预算案中还包含以下其他调整措施:为了进一步吸引选民的支持,梅洛尼最近宣布大幅降低车辆所有权相关的费用。据相关人士透露,这一政策将影响约70%的汽车和摩托车用户,预计所需资金约为20亿欧元。
Italy’s two other income brackets are currently 23% on salaries up to €28,000 per year, and 43% for those above €50,001. The people said other planned tweaks include: To further woo voters, Meloni recently announced a sweeping reduction to fees paid for vehicle ownership. It will affect about 70% of all cars and motorcycles and will cost about €2 billion, according to the people. The challenge will be to fund all this while keeping the country’s accounts in line with EU fiscal targets. So far, Meloni and Giorgetti have kept Italy mostly on track, instilling credit assessors such as Moody’s Ratings with greater confidence.
面临的挑战在于如何在实现这些政策的同时,确保意大利的财政状况符合欧盟的财政目标。到目前为止,梅洛尼和乔尔杰蒂的努力使意大利的财政状况基本保持在正确的轨道上,这也让穆迪(Moody’s)等信用评级机构对意大利的财政状况更加放心。
“The Italian economy has shown resilience to the energy price shock emanating from the Middle East conflict, and we expect the prudent fiscal stance to be maintained,” Moody’s said in recent days after a review of the country.
穆迪在最近对意大利经济状况的评估中表示:“意大利经济已经展现出对中东冲突引发的能源价格冲击的抵御能力,我们预计意大利政府会继续坚持审慎的财政政策。”
Such a stance has helped reassure financial markets. The spread between Italian 10-year government bonds and comparable German ones, a measure of risk in the region, has widened to almost 95 basis points. While that’s the highest since March, it remains well below the over 200 basis points reached when she first came to power.
这种审慎的财政政策有助于稳定金融市场。作为衡量该地区风险的一个指标,意大利10年期政府债券与德国同类债券之间的利差已扩大至近95个基点;虽然这是自今年3月以来的最高水平,但仍远低于梅洛尼上任初期时达到的200多个基点。
Such a stance has helped reassure financial markets. The spread between Italian 10-year government bonds and comparable German ones, a measure of risk in the region, has widened to almost 95 basis points. While that’s the highest since March, it remains well below the over 200 basis points reached when she first came to power.
新预算中包含的预测将更清楚地显示政府的财政空间。乔尔杰蒂上个月表示,预计今年意大利的国内生产总值(GDP)增长率将在1%左右,财政赤字将低于欧盟规定的3%的GDP上限。
New forecasts contained in the budget will give a clearer idea of the leeway for the government. Giorgetti said last month he expects gross domestic product growth to be near 1% this year, and the deficit to be below the EU’s 3%-of-output limit.
他最近承认,由于去年未能提前实现这一目标(实际赤字率为3.1%),感到有些失望。据相关人士透露,预计2027年的财政赤字将进一步下降,经济增长率将放缓至约0.6%;同时,意大利的债务水平也将开始逐步减少(具体时间表尚未公布)。
He recently admitted disappointment about missing out on an earlier arrival at that goal last year, with final data showing the shortfall at 3.1%. The projections will likely show the deficit falling further in 2027, while growth will likely slow to around 0.6%, the people said. Debt will slowly start to decline on an unspecified timetable, they said.
穆迪在周五的评估中预测,意大利的财政赤字将在2026年降至3%,2027年降至2.9%。该公司还表示:“我们预计公共债务占GDP的比例将在2026年和2027年稳定在138%左右,随后随着初级财政盈余的增加以及前几年实施的住房翻新税收优惠政策的逐步失效,这一比例将开始逐步下降。”
Moody’s reckoned on Friday that the deficit will fall to 3% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. “We project the public debt ratio to stabilize at around 138% of GDP in 2026 and 2027, and to start a gradual decline thereafter, based on solid primary surpluses and the fading effect from previous years’ housing renovation tax credits,” it said.
预算必须在10月15日之前提交,以便能够在年底前送交欧盟和意大利议会进行最终批准。随着各党派在未来几周内就资金问题展开争论,措施的最终规模和设计仍可能发生变化。
The budget must be presented before Oct. 15 so that it can go to the EU and to the Italian parliament for final approval by the end of the year. The final size and design of measures may still change as parties wrangle over funding in the coming weeks.