法国巴黎——研究人员在9月28日发表的一项研究中警告说，气候变化导致的海平面上升可能有助于入侵海洋物种扩散到新淹没的沿海地区，威胁生物多样性和一些经济活动。
PARIS, France - Sea-level rise driven by climate change could help invasive marine species spread into newly flooded coastal areas, threatening biodiversity and some economic activities, researchers warned in a study published on Sept 28.
发表在《自然生态与进化》杂志上的研究结果强调了气候与生物多样性危机之间的联系，全球变暖改变了生态系统，并为非本地物种的繁衍创造了新的机会。
The findings in Nature Ecology & Evolution highlight the links between the climate and biodiversity crises, with global warming altering ecosystems and creating new opportunities for non-native species to thrive.
研究合著者、北京师范大学的刘璇说，这可能“使以前未受这些物种影响的生态系统和人类活动面临风险”。
That could “potentially expose ecosystems and human activities that have not previously been affected by these species,” said study co-author Xuan Liu of Beijing Normal University.
研究人员模拟了在不同气候和海平面情景下，122种已建立的海洋外来动物（包括鱼类、甲壳类、软体动物和海星）未来可能的扩散情况。
The researchers modelled the potential future spread of 122 established non-native marine animals, including fish, crustaceans, molluscs and sea stars, under different climate and sea-level scenarios.
气候变化通过热膨胀（海水变暖时体积增加）以及冰川和冰盖融化导致海平面上升。
Climate change causes sea levels to rise through thermal expansion – ocean water increases in volume as it warms – and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets.
在温室气体排放温和增长的假设情景下，预计到2050年全球海平面将上升约20厘米，到2100年将上升56厘米。
Global sea levels are projected to rise by about 20cm by 2050 and 56 cm by 2100 under a scenario of moderate growth in greenhouse gas emissions.
到本世纪中叶，约36万平方公里的沿海土地将被淹没，到本世纪末将增至55万平方公里。
That would see around 360,000 sq km of coastal land flooded by mid-century, rising to 550,000 square kilometres by the end of the century.
作者发现，超过三分之二的新淹没沿海土地——大约29万至47万平方公里——可能适合所研究的海洋外来动物生存，尤其是在中纬度地区的河口周围。
More than two-thirds of the newly flooded coastal land – roughly 290,000 to 470,000 sq km – could become suitable for the marine non-native animals studied, particularly around estuaries at mid-latitudes, the authors found.
风险集中在以下地区：美国东部、墨西哥湾、北海、几内亚湾、阿拉伯湾、孟加拉湾北部、中国东南部和澳大利亚北部。
The risk is concentrated in regions including the eastern United States, Gulf of Mexico, North Sea, Gulf of Guinea, Arabian Gulf, northern Bay of Bengal, southeastern China and northern Australia.
所研究的一些物种已在欧洲定居，包括太平洋牡蛎、大西洋蓝蟹和脉红螺（一种掠食性海螺）。
Several species examined are already established in Europe, including the Pacific oyster, Atlantic blue crab and the veined rapa whelk, a predatory sea snail.
“河口地区面临特别大的风险，因为它们直接与海洋相连，同时也是人类活动的主要聚集地，”刘说。
“Estuaries are particularly at risk because they are directly connected to the ocean and are also major hubs of human activity,” Liu said.
该研究指出，随着海平面上升，这些地区可能会成为海洋入侵物种向内陆扩散的通道。
Such areas could provide stepping stones for marine invaders moving further inland as the sea advances, the study said.
这些研究结果发布之际，各国政府正在为两项由联合国支持的关于生物多样性和气候危机的国际峰会做准备：10月的COP17峰会和11月的COP31峰会。
The findings come as governments prepare for two UN-backed international summits on the twin biodiversity and climate crises: COP17 in October and COP31 in November.
联合国生物多样性科学专家小组（IPBES）的一项全球评估显示，2019年生物入侵造成的经济损失超过了4230亿美元。
A global assessment by the UN’s expert scientific panel on biodiversity, IPBES, estimated that economic costs from biological invasions exceeded $423 billion in 2019.