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大西洋月刊

拜登如何避免与伊朗开战How Biden Averted a War With Iran

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2024年4月,美军通过与以色列合作击败伊朗导弹袭击,帮助避免了中东冲突进一步升级。

In April 2024, the U.S. military helped avoid a wider conflict in the Middle East by working with Israel to defeat an Iranian missile attack.

哈马斯发动10月7日袭击以色列后不久,拜登总统请求我协助主导停火和释放人质协议的谈判。在取得一些初步进展后,谈判很快陷入停滞,因为加沙地带的战斗仍在激烈进行。2024年2月21日,我前往开罗重启谈判,手中握着一份新提案。

Shortly after Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, President Biden asked me to help lead negotiations for a cease-fire and hostage-release deal. After some initial progress, the talks soon stalled, as fighting raged in Gaza. On February 21, 2024, I went to Cairo to restart them, carrying a new proposal.

埃及情报总部位于开罗北部,四周环绕着林荫大道。大门之后,是这个强大的埃及安全机构的核心枢纽。阿巴斯·卡梅尔(Abbas Kamel)于2018年至2024年担任情报局局长,是该国最有权势的人物之一,尽管鲜为人知。这位年过六旬的内敛男子曾与现任埃及总统阿卜杜勒-法塔赫·塞西(Abdel Fattah el-Sisi)共事于军事情报部门,两人自那时起便关系密切。

Egypt’s intelligence headquarters is in northern Cairo, surrounded by leafy avenues. Behind its gates is the heartbeat of the formidable Egyptian security state. Abbas Kamel, the head of the intelligence service from 2018 to 2024, was one of the country’s most powerful figures, although little known. A reserved man in his 60s, he had served in military intelligence with Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, now Egypt’s president, and the two had remained close ever since.

卡梅尔也是通过人质协议阻止加沙战争努力的核心人物。他的情报机构保持着与加沙地带哈马斯领导人的直接沟通渠道。

Kamel was also central to the effort to stop the war in Gaza through a hostage deal. His intelligence service maintained direct channels to Hamas’s leaders in Gaza.

在他的办公室里,卡梅尔坐在我身旁,点燃了第三支烟,示意助手艾哈迈德·阿卜杜勒·哈莱克(Ahmed Abdel Khalek)把以色列人带进屋。

Seated beside me in his office, Kamel lit his third cigarette and signaled to his aide Ahmed Abdel Khalek to bring the Israelis into the room. “Now!” Kamel said. Abdel Khalek skirted out the door, clutching an ever-present binder of papers.

“现在!”卡梅尔说道。阿卜杜勒·哈莱克手里夹着那本形影不离的文件夹,绕道出了门。

Kamel, slumped in his chair, seemed at the end of his patience. The task of delivering Hamas to a hostage deal was proving impossible. But cigarettes had a calming effect on him. The routine of sparking a lighter; the long inhale. He’d lean back, his eyes following a cloud of smoke wafting toward a fan on the ceiling. Then he’d sit up with the hint of a smile, or a new idea.

卡梅尔瘫坐在椅子上,似乎已耐心耗尽。推动哈马斯达成人质协议的任务显得不可能完成。但香烟对他有镇静作用。点火的例行动作;深深吸一口。他会向后靠,目光追随一缕烟雾飘向天花板上的风扇。然后他会坐直,嘴角泛起一丝微笑,或是冒出一个新主意。我也该开始抽烟了,我想。

Kamel, slumped in his chair, seemed at the end of his patience. The task of delivering Hamas to a hostage deal was proving impossible. But cigarettes had a calming effect on him. The routine of sparking a lighter; the long inhale. He’d lean back, his eyes following a cloud of smoke wafting toward a fan on the ceiling. Then he’d sit up with the hint of a smile, or a new idea. Time to take up smoking, I thought.

仅仅三个月前,卡迈勒和我还坐在这个同一个房间里,帮助达成了战争爆发以来的第一份停火协议。在11月的七天里,战火停息。超过100名人质获释——妇女和儿童,包括幼童和祖母——作为交换,以色列释放了数百名被关押的巴勒斯坦囚犯。人道主义援助涌入加沙,在枪声寂静之际,抵达加沙地带各地有需要的人手中。

Only three months earlier, Kamel and I had sat in this same room and helped close the first cease-fire deal of the war. For seven days in November, the fighting stopped. More than 100 hostages were freed—women and children, including toddlers and grandmothers—in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Humanitarian aid surged into Gaza and, with the guns silent, reached those in need across the Strip.

协议破裂于最后关头,哈马斯拒绝释放其扣押的年轻女性。哈马斯提议跳过她们,转而开始讨论年长男性的释放,这明显违反了我们经过数周谈判拼凑出的协议。

The deal collapsed when Hamas, at the last moment, refused to release the younger women it was holding. Hamas proposed that we skip over them and begin discussing the older men, a clear violation of the deal that we had put together over weeks of negotiations.

以色列拒绝了。2023年12月1日午夜过后,华盛顿时间——加沙地带清晨——哈马斯恢复向以色列发射火箭弹。以色列恢复空袭。战争重燃。

Israel refused. After midnight in Washington on December 1, 2023—early morning in Gaza—Hamas resumed firing rockets at Israel. Israel resumed air strikes. The war was back on.

当时,我原以为我们还能促成另一份协议,至少针对剩余女性和年长男性,包括一名美国公民。

At the time, I had presumed that we’d succeed in putting together another deal, at least for the remaining women and the older men, including an American citizen.

但哈马斯坚持极端要求。其中包括恢复到10月6日的现状,即该组织继续掌控加沙,并在以色列边境重整旗鼓。在10月7日的大屠杀后,哈马斯杀害1000多人并劫持250多人质,没有任何以色列领导人会接受这一结果。

But Hamas held to maximalist demands. They included a return to the status quo of October 6, with the organization remaining in power in Gaza, reconstituted on the borders of Israel. After the massacres of October 7, when Hamas killed more than 1,000 and took more than 250 hostages, no Israeli leader would accept that outcome.

更不用说以色列强硬总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡,他将彻底清除哈马斯政权作为战争目标。在会见卡迈勒后不久,我便会见了他。

Let alone Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s hard-line prime minister, who demanded as a war aim that Hamas be removed from power entirely. I would see him shortly after meeting Kamel.

随着伊朗加大对美军的袭击,我们的谈判进一步陷入停滞。在伊拉克和叙利亚,美军几乎每天都遭到伊朗支持的民兵武装袭击。自10月7日以来,此类袭击较前一年激增七倍,且旨在造成人员伤亡。

Let alone Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s hard-line prime minister, who demanded as a war aim that Hamas be removed from power entirely. I would see him shortly after meeting Kamel. Our talks had further stalled as Iran ramped up attacks on Americans. In Iraq and Syria, U.S. troops came under near daily fire from Iranian-backed militias. Since October 7, these attacks had increased sevenfold from the year before, and the strikes aimed to kill.

圣诞节当天,三名美国人在伊拉克北部的一次袭击中受伤,其中一人伤势严重。几天后,伊朗支持的也门代理人胡塞武装向红海船只开火,其中包括美军舰艇。该地区濒临一场更大规模战争的边缘。

On Christmas Day, three Americans were wounded in a strike in northern Iraq, one grievously. Days later, the Iranian-backed proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, opened fire against ships in the Red Sea, including U.S. military vessels. The region was on the brink of a wider war.

拜登总统要求我在阿曼与伊朗人会面,重新激活一条在10月7日危机之前曾多次使用的秘密渠道。在我会面的前一天,胡塞武装发动了迄今为止最大规模的袭击,向美国和英国军舰发射了约二十多枚导弹和无人机。

President Biden asked me to meet the Iranians in Oman, reactivating a back channel that had been used at times before the October 7 crisis. The day before my meeting, the Houthis launched their largest attack to date, firing about two dozen missiles and drones at U.S. and U.K. military ships.

这条秘密渠道毫无进展。2024年1月28日,也就是我在阿曼会面两周后,一架伊朗提供的无人机袭击了驻约旦美军的住所,造成三名美国士兵死亡,数十人受伤。拜登最终选择反击,下令发动十多年来规模最大的对伊拉克和叙利亚的空袭浪潮,包括对约旦袭击事件的民兵领导人和在巴格达协助民兵的伊朗顾问进行定点打击。此后,民兵组织停止了行动。

President Biden asked me to meet the Iranians in Oman, reactivating a back channel that had been used at times before the October 7 crisis. The day before my meeting, the Houthis launched their largest attack to date, firing about two dozen missiles and drones at U.S. and U.K. military ships. The back channel went nowhere. On January 28, 2024, two weeks after my meeting in Oman, an Iranian-supplied drone struck the living quarters of American troops in Jordan, killing three U.S. soldiers and wounding dozens. Biden finally chose to hit back, ordering the largest wave of air strikes across Iraq and Syria in more than a decade, including targeted strikes against the militia leader responsible for the attack in Jordan and the Iranian adviser in Baghdad enabling the militias. After that, the militias stood down.

现在,我们终于回到了人质谈判的轨道上。和卡迈勒一样,我的耐心也已消磨殆尽。战争已进入第五个月。据报道,加沙已有近三万人丧生,其中包括武装分子。超过230名以色列士兵阵亡,近1500人受伤。哈马斯仍扣押着100多名人质,其中包括数名美国公民。这场杀戮压在我们所有人心头。

The back channel went nowhere. On January 28, 2024, two weeks after my meeting in Oman, an Iranian-supplied drone struck the living quarters of American troops in Jordan, killing three U.S. soldiers and wounding dozens. Biden finally chose to hit back, ordering the largest wave of air strikes across Iraq and Syria in more than a decade, including targeted strikes against the militia leader responsible for the attack in Jordan and the Iranian adviser in Baghdad enabling the militias. After that, the militias stood down.

“我们是调解人,布雷特,”卡迈勒哀叹道。“这不是我的战争,也不是你的战争;这是他们的战争,而他们不想停下来。双方都认为自己会赢;可根本没有什么可赢的。”

Now, finally, we were getting back to the hostage talks. Like Kamel, my patience was frayed. The war was now in its fifth month. Nearly 30,000 people had been reported killed in Gaza, including militants. More than 230 Israeli soldiers had died, and nearly 1,500 had been wounded. Hamas still held more than 100 hostages, including several American citizens. The carnage weighed on all of us.

他朝天花板吐了一口烟。“他们会毁掉我们所有人,不只是他们自己。”我提醒他,只要释放六名女性人质,战争明天就能停止。这些女性是在11月协议中被遗漏的,大多是从音乐节上被掳走的平民。他说,她们会最后获释。哈马斯知道她们对以色列很有价值。卡迈勒坚称他已竭尽全力,但我们陷入了僵局。

“We are mediators, Brett,” Kamel lamented. “It’s not my war, or your war; it’s their war, and they don’t want to stop. They both think they’ll win; there’s nothing to win.” He blew smoke to the ceiling. “They’ll destroy all of us, not just themselves.” The war could stop tomorrow with the release of six women hostages, I reminded him. These were the women passed over in the November deal, mostly civilians taken from a music festival.

阿卜杜勒·哈莱克随以色列代表团返回。他面容憔悴,留着军式发型,头发像我一样花白。阿卜杜勒·哈莱克是埃及情报官员,长期负责哈马斯事务,与哈马斯在加沙的领导人、10月7日袭击的主谋叶海亚·辛瓦尔有直接联系。哈马斯组织之外,很少有人比他更了解这个组织。

They’ll come last, he said. Hamas knew they were valuable to Israel. Kamel insisted that he was doing all he could, but we were stuck.

以色列代表团由罗嫩·巴尔率领。巴尔光头方下巴,看起来像是从电视剧《法乌达》里走出来的——那部剧讲的正是他领导的内部安全机构辛贝特。巴尔是以色列与哈马斯的主要联络人,也是以色列官员中最希望达成协议的人。他愿意变通,但不会突破内塔尼亚胡的指示底线。

Abdel Khalek returned with the Israeli delegation. Gaunt, with a military-style haircut graying like mine, Abdel Khalek was the Egyptian intelligence officer long charged with the Hamas file and was in direct contact with Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’s leader in Gaza and the mastermind of October 7. Few people outside Hamas knew the organization better.

为了表明自己的认真态度,巴尔随身带着装在盒子里的加沙地图,还有装满以色列关押的每一名巴勒斯坦囚犯名字的公文包,以及以色列掌握的所有关于人质的信息——他们可能的位置和状况。

The Israeli delegation was led by Ronen Bar. With a shaved head and square jaw, Bar looked as if he’d stepped out of Fauda, the television drama about Shin Bet, the internal security agency he led. Bar was the main Israeli liaison with Hamas, and the Israeli official who most wanted a deal. He was willing to bend but not break Netanyahu’s guidance.

巴尔说,以色列准备敲定人质换囚犯的细节,具体到哈马斯要求释放的囚犯名单。他还准备就分阶段停火的条件进行谈判,随着哈马斯释放更多人质,以色列军队将从加沙撤至更小的范围。如果没有人质获释,以色列军队将深入推进。“这就是方案,”巴尔说。他要求卡迈勒说服哈马斯至少释放一名女性人质。“我不是哈马斯!”卡迈勒说。巴尔收回话头,表示无意冒犯。

To demonstrate his seriousness, Bar carried maps of Gaza rolled up in cases, and briefcases filled with the names of every Palestinian prisoner held by Israel, as well as all of the information Israel had on the hostages, their likely locations and conditions. Bar said Israel was prepared to finalize the details for an exchange of hostages for prisoners, down to the names of prisoners Hamas wanted released. He was also prepared to negotiate the conditions for a phased cease-fire, with Israeli forces withdrawing from Gaza to smaller perimeters as more hostages were freed by Hamas. If no hostages came out, Israeli forces would go in deeper. “That’s the formula,” Bar said.

巴尔在我们面前展开一张地图,解释说以色列正准备在加沙南部城市拉法发动大规模军事攻势。这将是迄今为止战争中规模最大的行动。

Bar said Israel was prepared to finalize the details for an exchange of hostages for prisoners, down to the names of prisoners Hamas wanted released. He was also prepared to negotiate the conditions for a phased cease-fire, with Israeli forces withdrawing from Gaza to smaller perimeters as more hostages were freed by Hamas. If no hostages came out, Israeli forces would go in deeper. “That’s the formula,” Bar said.

拉法紧邻埃及边境,也是哈马斯在军事上保持完整的地方,仍然编成旅级单位,下辖营级和更小的单位。地下深处有一个隧道网络,通往北面一个被称为“王国”的主要迷宫,辛瓦尔和他的顾问们一直藏在那里,躲避以色列军队,同时还有几名人质。

He challenged Kamel to convince Hamas to release at least one of the women. “I’m not Hamas!” Kamel said. Bar backtracked, meaning no offense. Rolling out a map in front of us, Bar explained that Israel was preparing a major military offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. It would be the largest operation of the war so far.

拉法也是大量平民逃离以色列在加沙其他地区持续军事行动的地方。巴尔说,阻止这一计划行动的唯一办法是哈马斯开始释放人质——从妇女开始。

Rafah was adjacent to Egypt’s border, and it was where Hamas remained militarily intact, still organized into brigades with subordinate battalions and smaller units beneath them. A network of tunnels deep underground fed into a main labyrinth to the north, known as the Kingdom, where Sinwar and his advisers had been hiding from Israeli forces, together with several hostages.

卡迈勒说,哈马斯有相反的要求。以色列必须完全撤出加沙,并保证永久停火,然后才会释放任何人质。哈马斯及其领导人将继续掌权,回到10月6日的现状。与此同时,以色列必须释放所有被关押在以色列监狱中的巴勒斯坦人,无论其犯下何种罪行。卡迈勒解释说,这就是辛瓦尔的立场。

Rafah was also where much of the civilian population had fled from Israel’s ongoing military operations elsewhere in Gaza. The only way to stop this planned operation, Bar said, was for Hamas to begin releasing hostages—starting with the women.

“不可能,”巴尔说。他看着我,想知道我为什么建议这次会面。“这是什么?”他问道。

Kamel said Hamas had opposite demands. Israel must withdraw completely from Gaza and guarantee a permanent cease-fire before it would release any hostages. Hamas and its leaders would remain in power, returning to the status quo of October 6. Meanwhile, Israel had to release all Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, regardless of crimes committed.

在一场立场不可调和的谈判中,调解人会试图创造一个“可能达成协议的空间”。而在哈马斯和以色列之间,根本不存在这样的空间。“让我们考虑一种不同的方式,”我说。

Kamel said Hamas had opposite demands. Israel must withdraw completely from Gaza and guarantee a permanent cease-fire before it would release any hostages. Hamas and its leaders would remain in power, returning to the status quo of October 6. Meanwhile, Israel had to release all Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, regardless of crimes committed.

我与中央情报局局长、我在人质谈判中的搭档比尔·伯恩斯一起,制定了一个妥协框架,以打破僵局。它将首先聚焦于双方可能达成一致的领域:停火,并释放大量巴勒斯坦囚犯,以换取一类人道主义类别的人质,首先是剩余的妇女和年长男性,然后是病人或伤员。这些类别中的人质有30多名,其中包括三名美国人。

That was Sinwar’s position, Kamel explained. “Impossible,” Bar said. He looked at me, wondering why I had recommended this meeting. “What is this?” he asked. In a negotiation with irreconcilable views, a mediator tries to create a “zone of possible agreement.” Between Hamas and Israel, there was none whatsoever. “Let’s consider a different approach,” I said.

哈马斯的诉求是一个长期停火协议——至少持续六周,这个期限比原本仅为剩余女性人员所承诺的停火时间要长。只要关于其余人质的谈判仍在继续,这个停火协议就有可能持续一年甚至更长时间。巴尔表示,以色列方面可以接受这个方案。

Together with Bill Burns, the CIA director and my partner in the hostage negotiations, I had developed a compromise framework to overcome the impasse. It would focus first on an area where both sides might agree: a cease-fire and the release of large numbers of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for a humanitarian category of hostages, starting with the remaining women and the older men, and then the sick or wounded.

卡梅尔将香烟头掐灭在烟灰缸里,说道:“他们的要求更高……你们俩都明白这一点。辛瓦尔绝对不会同意的……”巴尔打断他:“那就逼迫他们吧!一定要逼迫他们!”

There were more than 30 hostages in those categories, including three Americans.

“我当然会这么做!”卡梅尔回答,“那你呢?你去逼迫内塔尼亚胡吧!”

The incentive for Hamas was a prolonged cease-fire—at least six weeks, longer than what was promised for the remaining women alone. And it could continue as long as talks continued for the remaining hostages, creating a chance to last a year or more.

我举起双手,试图阻止他们继续争吵。卡梅尔退后一步,说道:“我相信你,罗南……但我需要听听内塔尼亚胡本人的意见。”

The incentive for Hamas was a prolonged cease-fire—at least six weeks, longer than what was promised for the remaining women alone. And it could continue as long as talks continued for the remaining hostages, creating a chance to last a year or more.

“我们有必要直接从内塔尼亚胡那里得到答复。”第二天,我见到了内塔尼亚胡。“他会同意的,”我预测道。“释放我们的女儿们,战争就会停止,”巴尔坚持要求。

Bar said the Israeli side could accept that outline. Kamel smashed the butt of his cigarette in an ashtray. “They have greater demands,” he said. “You both know this. Sinwar won’t agree—” “Then push them! Push them!” Bar interrupted.

我们三人别无选择,只能合作。卡梅尔邀请阿卜杜勒·哈莱克加入我们的谈判团队,他说:“我们会尽最大努力的。”

“I do!” Kamel said. “What about you? Push Netanyahu!”

阿卜杜勒·哈莱克耸了耸肩,显得不太相信:“愿上帝保佑吧……”任何来到耶路撒冷首相办公室的人,首先会看到一面挂有非洲和中东地图的墙;地图中央,以色列的面积仅相当于一个邮票那么大。内塔尼亚胡在地图前迎接了我,随后微笑着和我合影。等媒体离开房间后,他才对自己所负责的局势进行了冷静的分析。

I raised my arms to stop the two men from shouting at each other. Kamel retreated: “I trust you, Ronen. I trust you. But what does Netanyahu say?” Bar insisted that he was speaking for Netanyahu. “We need to hear it from your prime minister.” I was seeing Netanyahu the following day. “He’ll agree,” I predicted. “Release our girls, the war stops,” Bar insisted. We stood and shook hands. The three of us had no choice but to work together. Kamel asked Abdel Khalek to join us. “We’ll do our best,” Kamel said.

以色列北部已被疏散。超过8万人为躲避来自黎巴嫩真主党的每日火箭弹袭击而转移。加沙附近等南部地区也已被疏散,人数多达5万。以色列近5%的领土如今成了无人区。内塔尼亚胡把哈马斯坚持恢复其在以色列边境的阵地比作民族自杀。他说,以色列将不再是一个国家。人民永远不会返回与哈马斯或真主党接壤的地区。他的优先任务是创造条件,让人们能够返乡。

Abdel Khalek shrugged, looking unconvinced. “Inshallah, inshallah,” he said. The first thing a visitor to the prime minister’s office in Jerusalem sees is a wall draped with a map of Africa and the Middle East, with Israel, the size of a postage stamp, in the middle. Netanyahu greeted me in front of the map, then posed for a photo with a smile. Once the press had left the room, he offered his own bleak assessment of things across the map.

在南部,这意味着哈马斯今后将不再与以色列为邻。在北部,如果加沙问题达成协议,他暂时不会动真主党。如果未能达成协议,那么以色列或许也不得不将真主党从边境地区清除。30多分钟里,他始终没有提到人质。“我来是为了讨论人质协议,”我提醒他说。

Northern Israel had been evacuated. More than 80,000 people had relocated to escape daily rocket fire from Hezbollah in Lebanon. Southern Israel, the areas near Gaza, had also been evacuated, up to 50,000 people. Nearly 5 percent of Israeli territory was now a no-man’s-land. Netanyahu likened Hamas’s insistence on restoring its positions on Israel’s borders to national suicide. Israel won’t be a country, he said. People would never return to areas bordering Hamas or Hezbollah. His priority was creating the conditions for people to return home.

此时,内塔尼亚胡正受到批评,因为相对于加沙地带内的军事行动,他没有把释放人质放在优先位置。这些批评似乎是有道理的。他谈起军事行动时情绪激昂,谈到人质时却明显没那么热切——如果他愿意谈这个话题的话。他认为,以色列只有通过军事内塔尼亚胡还认为,时间站在他这一边,而不是辛瓦尔那边。以色列军队终于发现了“王国”,据认为这里是哈马斯庞大隧道系统的核心。他们在那里发现了数百万美元现金,以及辛瓦尔的手写笔记、笔记本电脑和手机。哈马斯最高领袖在以军赶到前离开了该地区,但据认为,以军当时已经快要逼近他了。内塔尼亚胡认为,除掉辛瓦尔,再加上即将展开的拉法行动,将迫使哈马斯降低要求,释放所有人质,而不只是释放一部分。

In the south, that meant Hamas would never again exist adjacent to Israel. In the north, if a deal was reached in Gaza, he’d leave Hezbollah alone for now. If not, then Israel might have to clear Hezbollah from that border too. For more than 30 minutes, he never mentioned the hostages. “I’m here to discuss the hostage deal,” I reminded him. Netanyahu by this time was under criticism for not prioritizing the release of hostages over the military campaign inside Gaza. The criticism seemed valid. He was animated in discussing the military campaign, and far less so when discussing the hostages—when he chose to discuss them at all. He believed that it was only through a military campaign that Israel could secure the release of the hostages. There could not be one without the other.

最终,内塔尼亚胡告诉我,他原则上愿意接受我们的提议——停火六周,并以释放巴勒斯坦囚犯为交换,让女性、老人和患病的人质获释。但一轮接一轮的谈判令他不胜其烦,因为谈判似乎把哈马斯领导人当作政治家,而不是躲在隧道里挟持人质的恐怖分子。“这行不通。”他说。

“So, how’s that all going?” Netanyahu asked me. “Not great, it seems.” I explained where we stood. The aim was to unite around the proposal we had discussed in Cairo, with Israel signed on and endorsed by Qatar and Egypt.

我同意,除掉辛瓦尔很重要,也可能有助于促成释放人质的协议;但在此之前,我们应从军事和外交两方面对他施压,将其逼入死角。

“That places the onus squarely on Sinwar,” I said.

会议结束后,我给阿卜杜勒·哈利克打了电话。哈马斯仍没有传来任何消息。

“Why don’t you ask Hamas to accept something, then come to me,” Netanyahu said. This was not the way to negotiate with Hamas, he insisted. The group would pocket anything Israel accepted and then keep demanding more. “You’re doing things backward,” he said.

我告诉他,内塔尼亚胡原则上接受了这项提议。但即便与这位总理谈了将近两个小时,我仍无法确定。内塔尼亚胡实在让人捉摸不透。他是想破坏谈判,还是真心认为,只有把刀架在辛瓦尔脖子上,辛瓦尔才会释放人质?在这一点得到验证之前,谁也不知道。

Netanyahu also believed that time was on his side, not Sinwar’s. Israeli forces had finally discovered the Kingdom, thought to be the heart of Hamas’s extensive tunnel system. There, they had found millions of dollars in cash, along with Sinwar’s handwritten notes, laptops, and phones. Hamas’s leader had left the area before Israeli forces arrived, but they were now thought to be closing in. Eliminating Sinwar, combined with the looming Rafah operation, Netanyahu thought, would force Hamas to soften its demands and give up all the hostages, not just some.

两周后,哈马斯对我们提议的回应印证了内塔尼亚胡的看法:谈判毫无进展。该组织拒绝了折中协议,坚持最初的要求。

Netanyahu also believed that time was on his side, not Sinwar’s. Israeli forces had finally discovered the Kingdom, thought to be the heart of Hamas’s extensive tunnel system. There, they had found millions of dollars in cash, along with Sinwar’s handwritten notes, laptops, and phones. Hamas’s leader had left the area before Israeli forces arrived, but they were now thought to be closing in. Eliminating Sinwar, combined with the looming Rafah operation, Netanyahu thought, would force Hamas to soften its demands and give up all the hostages, not just some.

3月18日,拜登致电内塔尼亚胡,敦促他提高筹码,提出释放更多巴勒斯坦囚犯。内塔尼亚胡勉强同意了,但哈马斯不肯让步。一周后,联合国安理会就一项决议进行投票,呼吁在即将开始的斋月期间在加沙无条件停火。美国投了弃权票,使该决议得以通过。我们的联合国团队认为,像我们之前对呼吁无条件停火——即不释放任何人质——的决议那样投否决票,声誉代价太大。

In the end, Netanyahu told me that he’d accept our proposal—a six-week cease-fire and a release of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the women, elderly, and ill hostages—in principle. But the constant rounds of talks were grating on him, because they seemed to treat Hamas leaders as statesmen, as opposed to terrorists holding hostages in tunnels. “It won’t work,” he said.

投票结束后,内塔尼亚胡内阁成员、前以色列驻美大使罗恩·德默尔打电话给我。他说哈马斯对该决议表示赞赏,并质问我们政府为什么在联合国把以色列当作“抹布”。鉴于拜登对以色列的坚定支持,这一指责是无礼的,我这样告诉了他,然后挂断了电话。但是,尽管德默尔的言辞过于激烈,但他说哈马斯将联合国决议视为加强其地位的战略契机并没有错。投票后的第二天,哈马斯领导层在德黑兰会见了伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉哈梅内伊,并指出以色列在国际上日益孤立。胡塞武装升级了在红海的导弹和无人机袭击。由于看不到进展,以色列谈判代表完全退出了谈判。

I agreed that eliminating Sinwar would be important and might help unlock a hostage deal, but until that happened, we should work to corner him—militarily and diplomatically. I called Abdel Khalek after the meeting. There was still no word from Hamas. I told him that Netanyahu accepted the proposal in principle. But even after spending nearly two hours with the prime minister, I could not be sure. Netanyahu was just impossible to pin down. Was he aiming to sabotage the talks, or was it his genuine view that Sinwar would only release the hostages with a knife to his throat? Until that proposition was tested, it was impossible to know.

“以色列不会向哈马斯妄想的要求屈服,”内塔尼亚胡在一份声明中说。我们通过人质协议停止战争的努力已经失败。

Two weeks later, Hamas’s response to our proposal reinforced Netanyahu’s view that negotiations were going nowhere. The group rejected the compromise deal and stuck to its original demands.

与此同时,拜登在国内面临着政治压力——主要来自他自己的政党——要求他设法迫使以色列停止这场战争。3月初,记者乔纳森·凯普哈特曾问拜登:鉴于以色列在拉法赫的军事行动可能对平民造成的影响,这一行动是否属于“红线”(即不可逾越的界限)?拜登回答说:“这确实是一条红线”,并补充称以色列“必须更加重视那些无辜平民的生命”。后来拜登解释说,他的意思是指以色列在实施军事行动时应当更加谨慎、更加人道;而不是指以色列是否应该进行这场行动本身。在同一场采访中,他还表示自己“永远不会离开以色列”。然而大约在同一时间,副总统哈里斯在接受ABC新闻采访时称,以色列在拉法赫的军事行动将是一个“巨大的错误”,并拒绝排除如果该行动继续进行的话可能产生的“后果”。

On March 18, Biden called Netanyahu and urged him to sweeten the deal by offering to release a larger number of Palestinian prisoners. Netanyahu reluctantly agreed, but Hamas would not budge. A week later, the United Nations Security Council voted on a resolution calling for an unconditional cease-fire in Gaza during the month of Ramadan, which was about to begin. The U.S. abstained from the vote, allowing the resolution to pass. Our UN team thought it would be too reputationally costly to veto it, as we had done with previous resolutions calling for an unconditional cease-fire—meaning without any hostages being freed.

回顾过去,哈马斯在这段时间里始终没有回应我们的任何提议也就不足为奇了。我们现在知道,2024年3月,当美国国内正在进行这些政治辩论时,辛瓦尔正躲藏在拉法赫地下的隧道系统中。作为一位热衷于关注时事的人,他肯定已经意识到拜登与内塔尼亚胡之间的关系已经到了临界点。

Ron Dermer, a member of Netanyahu’s cabinet who was formerly Israel’s ambassador to the U.S., called me after the vote. He said Hamas had praised the resolution and asked why our administration treated Israel as a “dishrag” at the UN. The charge was offensive, given Biden’s staunch support for Israel, and I told him as much, hanging up the phone. But while Dermer’s rhetoric was overheated, he was not wrong that Hamas saw the UN resolution as a strategic opening to strengthen its position. The day after the vote, Hamas’s leadership met with Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, in Tehran, and pointed to Israel’s growing international isolation. The Houthis escalated their missile and drone attacks in the Red Sea. And with no progress in sight, Israeli negotiators withdrew from the talks altogether.

一年后,罗南·巴尔访问了华盛顿特区,并与一些前拜登政府的助手进行了交谈。其中一位助手遗憾地问道:在与哈马斯的谈判中,拜登本应该采取什么不同的策略?巴尔指出,2024年春季正是拜登试图阻止以色列在拉法赫实施军事行动的时期。从巴尔的观点来看,这种做法反而加剧了哈马斯的强硬立场,使得解救人质和结束战争的难度进一步增加。“那才是你犯下的最大错误,”他说。

“Israel will not surrender to Hamas’s delusional demands,” Netanyahu said in a statement. Our efforts to stop the war through a hostage deal were dead.

4月1日上午,一群以色列官员聚集在白宫的应急指挥室,详细阐述了他们在拉法赫地区的 humanitarian (此处“humanitarian”可能应为“人道主义”)行动计划。在拜登发表相关言论后,我们已经明确表示:在平民有机会撤离该地区之前,以色列不应启动任何军事行动。

Meanwhile, Biden was under political pressure at home—mainly from within his own party—to somehow force Israel to stop the war. Earlier in March, the journalist Jonathan Capehart had asked Biden whether Israel’s planned offensive in Rafah was a “red line,” given the potential impact on civilians. “It is a red line,” Biden said, adding that Israel “must pay more attention to the innocent lives being lost.” Biden later told us that he was referring to how Israel should conduct the operation, not whether it was conducted at all. In the same interview, he said he was “never going to leave Israel.” Around the same time, however, Vice President Harris told ABC News that Israel’s operation in Rafah would be a “huge mistake” and refused to rule out “consequences” if it went ahead.

会议开始前,以色列大使迈克尔·赫尔佐格及其军事代表希达伊·齐尔伯曼少将请求在会议室外与我单独谈话,以免被他人听到。齐尔伯曼告诉我,以色列即将对大马士革发动空袭,目标是穆罕默德·雷扎·扎赫迪——这位伊朗高级军官负责在叙利亚和黎巴嫩境内指挥代理势力(包括真主党)的活动。这并不令人意外:鉴于真主党持续对以色列北部发动攻击,扎赫迪确实是一个合理的攻击目标。我感谢齐尔伯曼向我提供了这一重要信息。

Looking back, it’s no wonder that Hamas never responded to our proposals during this period. We now know that in March 2024, as this political debate was taking place in the U.S., Sinwar was in a tunnel complex underneath Rafah. An avid consumer of news, he would have understood that relations between Biden and Netanyahu were approaching the boiling point.

“还有一件事需要说明,”齐尔伯曼说道。他身材高大,剃着光头,看起来像一名重量级拳击手;他的头微微倾向我的方向。齐尔伯曼指出,伊朗可能会声称即将被攻击的建筑物是他们的领事馆,但实际上并非如此。我追问道:“根据国际法,外交设施是受到保护的;如果目标真的是领事馆,那么以色列无权对其发动攻击。”齐尔伯曼坚称以色列方面并未发现任何表明该建筑物属于领事馆的证据。

A year later, Ronen Bar visited Washington, D.C., and met with a group of former Biden aides. One of them asked plaintively what Biden should have done differently in the negotiations with Hamas. Bar pointed to this period in spring 2024, when Biden was said to be blocking Israel’s operation in Rafah. From Bar’s vantage point, that perception had hardened Hamas’s position, making it more difficult to free the hostages and end the war. “That was your biggest mistake,” he said.

当我们离开会议室时,那栋建筑物已经被彻底摧毁,扎赫迪及其几名同伙也遭到了杀害。伊朗方面宣布将此次袭击视为对伊朗领土的侵犯,并誓言会进行报复性打击。不久后,我们又收到了伊朗正在准备对以色列城市发动导弹攻击的报道。起初这些消息令人难以置信:几十年来,伊朗一直通过代理人来发动攻击,从而保留了否认攻击的责任,并降低了本国境内遭受报复性打击的风险。但随着更多消息的传来,我们逐渐确信伊朗确实正在准备一场大规模的导弹袭击——这次袭击将动用弹道导弹、巡航导弹和无人机,针对以色列境内的数百个目标。

On the morning of April 1, a group of Israeli officials crowded into the White House Situation Room to lay out their humanitarian plans for the Rafah operation. Following Biden’s comments, we had made clear that the operation should not begin before civilians had the opportunity to leave the area. Before the meeting started, Israel’s ambassador, Michael Herzog, and its military attaché, Major General Hidai Zilberman, asked to speak with me outside the room, so as not to be overheard. Zilberman said that Israel was about to conduct an air strike in Damascus. The target was Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior Iranian officer responsible for proxy operations across Syria and Lebanon, including Hezbollah. That was not particularly surprising. Zahedi was a legitimate target for the Israelis, given the ongoing Hezbollah attacks in northern Israel. I thanked Zilberman for informing me.

在与以色列方面的紧急磋商中,我们计算出了在最坏情况下需要多少枚防御导弹拦截器。以色列拥有世界上最先进的防空系统,包括能够拦截位于外太空边缘的导弹的“箭”(Arrow)系统,以及用于应对近距离威胁的防御系统。然而,根据我们从伊朗方面获得的情报来看,即便这些防御系统也可能不够使用。齐尔伯曼(Zilberman)来到我的办公室,正式请求美国派遣军事力量来协助保卫以色列的领土——包括战斗机联队、驱逐舰以及导弹防御系统。这一请求非常特殊,因为它违背了以色列一贯的国防原则:即“以色列应依靠自身力量进行防御”。

“One more thing,” he said. He was a giant man with a shaved head, resembling a heavyweight boxer, and his large dome leaned toward mine. Iran might claim that the building about to be attacked was a consulate, Zilberman said, but it was not. I pressed him: Diplomatic facilities are protected under international law. If the target in Damascus was a consulate, it was off-limits. Zilberman insisted that the Israelis had seen no evidence that was the case.

当我将这一情况告知拜登的首席幕僚杰夫·齐恩茨(Jeff Zients)以及其他白宫高级官员时,他们明显感到非常担忧——他们既担心以色列民众的安全,也担心这一事件可能对2024年的大选产生的影响。当时白宫的注意力主要集中在竞选活动上,拜登的团队希望他能够展现出强大的领导力,而不是被突发事件所左右。

By the time we got out of the meeting, the building had been flattened and Zahedi and several of his associates were dead. Iran declared that it viewed the strike as an attack on Iranian territory and vowed to strike Israel in retaliation. We soon picked up reports that Iran was preparing for a missile attack against Israeli cities. It was hard to believe at first. For decades, Iran had fought using proxies, allowing itself some deniability and reducing the risk of retaliatory attacks inside its own borders. But more reports came in showing preparations for a massive strike—a combination of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones aimed at hundreds of targets across Israel.

拜登决心维护以色列的利益,但他对当前危机的挫败感以及对内塔尼亚胡的不满与日俱增。这位总统以随时愿意接听电话而闻名——他曾突然给我母亲打过电话。然而在2024年第一季度,他与内塔尼亚胡的通话次数仅有几次,而在2023年第四季度这一数字接近20次。在参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默呼吁以色列举行选举并更换内塔尼亚胡之后,两国领导人的关系进一步恶化。内塔尼亚胡认为这是拜登授意舒默这么做的;拜登予以否认,但后来却称舒默的言论“很有道理”。4月1日晚上,在以色列对大马士革发动攻击数小时后,一架以色列无人机袭击了加沙北部的车队,导致7名隶属于非营利组织“World Central Kitchen”的救援人员丧生。以色列方面曾欢迎安德烈斯(José Andrés)及其组织进入加沙,并认为他们比联合国更值得信赖。这次袭击是一场悲剧——以色列方面称这是“严重的错误”;这一事件引发了要求立即实现无条件停火的呼声。拜登现在面临着来自各方的批评:左派认为他太软弱,无法约束以色列;右派则认为他太软弱,无法迫使哈马斯释放人质,并且总体上认为他没有明确的计划来结束这场战争。

In urgent consultations with the Israelis, we calculated how many defensive missile interceptors would be needed in a worst-case scenario. Israel has some of the world’s most sophisticated air defenses, including Arrow systems that target missiles at the edge of outer space and closer-range defenses that take out lesser threats. But based on what we were seeing from Iran, even that capability might not be enough. Zilberman visited my office with a formal request for U.S. military forces to help defend Israeli territory—air wings, destroyers, and missile defenses. The request was extraordinary, and it broke with Israel’s traditional doctrine: We defend ourselves, by ourselves. When I told Biden’s chief of staff, Jeff Zients, and other top White House aides that we might be about to see the largest ballistic-missile attack in history, with Israel as the target, they were visibly alarmed—both for the people who lived there and for how it might affect the 2024 election. The focus in the West Wing had shifted to the campaign, and Biden’s team wanted him to appear strong and in command, not captive to events.

在这种背景下,拜登于4月4日与内塔尼亚胡进行了通话。美国一直试图避免的这场全面的中东战争正在逼近:伊朗拥有数百枚针对以色列的弹道导弹和无人机;以色列正在准备反击;与哈马斯的谈判已经破裂;加沙的人道主义危机也在不断恶化。

Biden was determined to defend Israel, but his frustration with the crisis—and with Netanyahu—was growing. The president was known for picking up the phone at all hours—he once called my mother out of the blue. But in the first quarter of 2024, he spoke with Netanyahu only a handful of times, compared with nearly 20 calls in the last quarter of 2023. Relations between the two leaders deteriorated further after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called for Israel to hold elections and replace Netanyahu. Netanyahu believed that Biden had put Schumer up to it; Biden denied this, but later called Schumer’s remarks a “good speech.” Late in the day on April 1, hours after Israel’s attack in Damascus, an Israeli drone struck a convoy in northern Gaza and killed seven aid workers affiliated with World Central Kitchen, a nonprofit led by the chef José Andrés. The Israelis had welcomed Andrés and his organization into Gaza, viewing them as more trustworthy than the U.N. The strike was a tragedy—Israel called it a “grave mistake”—and it fueled calls for an immediate and unconditional cease-fire. Biden was now being criticized from all sides: The left saw him as too weak to rein in Israel, while the right saw him as too weak to force Hamas to free the hostages and, more broadly, as having no articulable plan to end the war.

那天当我走进椭圆形办公室时,拜登的脸色涨得通红。他坐在办公桌前,周围围着比平时更多的人,包括齐恩茨(Zients)、国务卿安东尼·布林肯(Antony Blinken)以及伯恩斯(Burns)。所有人都感觉到局势即将失控。“我到底该对这家伙说什么才好?”拜登问道。

Biden was determined to defend Israel, but his frustration with the crisis—and with Netanyahu—was growing. The president was known for picking up the phone at all hours—he once called my mother out of the blue. But in the first quarter of 2024, he spoke with Netanyahu only a handful of times, compared with nearly 20 calls in the last quarter of 2023. Relations between the two leaders deteriorated further after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called for Israel to hold elections and replace Netanyahu. Netanyahu believed that Biden had put Schumer up to it; Biden denied this, but later called Schumer’s remarks a “good speech.” Late in the day on April 1, hours after Israel’s attack in Damascus, an Israeli drone struck a convoy in northern Gaza and killed seven aid workers affiliated with World Central Kitchen, a nonprofit led by the chef José Andrés. The Israelis had welcomed Andrés and his organization into Gaza, viewing them as more trustworthy than the U.N. The strike was a tragedy—Israel called it a “grave mistake”—and it fueled calls for an immediate and unconditional cease-fire. Biden was now being criticized from all sides: The left saw him as too weak to rein in Israel, while the right saw him as too weak to force Hamas to free the hostages and, more broadly, as having no articulable plan to end the war.

各方意见不一。有些人建议总统直接告诉内塔尼亚胡战争已经结束;如果内塔尼亚胡拒绝,美国就会切断对以色列的支持。在竞选活动中,拜登也听到了民主党内部的一些类似观点。但他提出了一个问题:如果在我们切断军事援助的同时,人质仍被困在隧道中、战争仍在继续、且以色列正面临多方面的攻击,那会怎样?“我们这是站在伊朗那一边的吗?”他反问道。

Biden was determined to defend Israel, but his frustration with the crisis—and with Netanyahu—was growing. The president was known for picking up the phone at all hours—he once called my mother out of the blue. But in the first quarter of 2024, he spoke with Netanyahu only a handful of times, compared with nearly 20 calls in the last quarter of 2023. Relations between the two leaders deteriorated further after Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called for Israel to hold elections and replace Netanyahu. Netanyahu believed that Biden had put Schumer up to it; Biden denied this, but later called Schumer’s remarks a “good speech.” Late in the day on April 1, hours after Israel’s attack in Damascus, an Israeli drone struck a convoy in northern Gaza and killed seven aid workers affiliated with World Central Kitchen, a nonprofit led by the chef José Andrés. The Israelis had welcomed Andrés and his organization into Gaza, viewing them as more trustworthy than the U.N. The strike was a tragedy—Israel called it a “grave mistake”—and it fueled calls for an immediate and unconditional cease-fire. Biden was now being criticized from all sides: The left saw him as too weak to rein in Israel, while the right saw him as too weak to force Hamas to free the hostages and, more broadly, as having no articulable plan to end the war.

伯恩斯认为,达成人质交换协议才是实现停火的唯一途径。这意味着在继续与哈马斯进行谈判的同时,必须继续支持以色列,并尽可能减轻加沙地区民众的苦难。我同意伯恩斯的观点,但选择保持沉默,同时观察拜登的反应——他看起来似乎随时都可能发怒。

Against this backdrop, Biden and Netanyahu spoke on April 4. The all-out Middle East war that the U.S. had sought to avoid was fast approaching. Iran had hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones aimed at Israel. Israel was planning a counterattack. The hostage talks with Hamas were dead. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza was worsening.

国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文介绍了以色列为应对导弹袭击所做的准备,以及以色列向美国请求军事支援的情况。拜登的办公桌上放着国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀建议的紧急部署额外部队的命令,拜登毫不犹豫地批准了这些命令。随后他询问如何才能重新推动人质交换协议的谈判。虽然看起来希望渺茫,但伯恩斯提出可以利用伊朗的这次袭击来争取有利条件:如果我们帮助以色列击退伊朗的攻击,内塔尼亚胡就会对我们心存感激;而辛瓦尔(哈马斯的领导人)也会意识到,即使伊朗直接发动攻击,也无法改变哈马斯的处境。

When I walked into the Oval Office that day, Biden’s face was red like a beet. I sat in front of his desk with a larger crowd than usual, including Zients, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Burns. Everyone sensed that something was about to give. “What the fuck am I telling this guy?” Biden asked. There were different views. Some people advised the president to simply tell Netanyahu that the war was over; if he refused, we’d cut Israel’s support. Biden was hearing this sentiment on the campaign trail from parts of the Democratic Party. But he asked what would happen if we cut military assistance while hostages remained in tunnels and the war continued, with Israel under attack from multiple directions. “We’re on the side of Iran?” he asked rhetorically.

“如果我们没能击退伊朗的攻击呢?”拜登仍表示怀疑。伯恩斯的回答是:那样的话,地区战争将不可避免。以色列已经做好了反击的准备,以防伊朗的导弹造成人员伤亡。拜登听后只是说了句“好吧”。

There were different views. Some people advised the president to simply tell Netanyahu that the war was over; if he refused, we’d cut Israel’s support. Biden was hearing this sentiment on the campaign trail from parts of the Democratic Party. But he asked what would happen if we cut military assistance while hostages remained in tunnels and the war continued, with Israel under attack from multiple directions. “We’re on the side of Iran?” he asked rhetorically.

情况室接通了电话。拜登立刻插话道:“内塔尼亚胡,你到底在搞什么鬼?”他紧紧握住电话。“你以为我是圣诞老人吗?在以色列,根本不存在‘圣诞老人’这种东西!”当内塔尼亚胡询问拜登的意思时,拜登表示自己只需动动手指,就能切断对以色列的军事援助,让这个国家自生自灭。内塔尼亚胡回应称,即使没有美国的支持,以色列也会自卫。后来我们得知,内塔尼亚胡从这次通话中判断出美国确实打算切断对以色列的军事物资供应。

Burns advised that a hostage deal remained the only path to a cease-fire. That meant maintaining support for Israel while trying to restart the negotiations with Hamas and easing the immense human suffering in Gaza as much as possible. I agreed with Burns but chose not to say much, taking in the scene and trying to read Biden, who seemed ready to blow his stack.

拜登继续提出关于人道主义援助以及开放加沙北部通道的具体要求。内塔尼亚胡则开始阐述以色列对那次袭击援助人员的事件的初步评估,称实际情况比新闻报道的要复杂得多——这其实是一场严重的沟通失误。

Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, discussed Israel’s preparations for the missile attack and its request for U.S. military support. On Biden’s desk were orders, recommended by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, for the emergency deployment of additional forces to the region. Biden said he approved them, without hesitation. He then asked how we might return to the hostage deal. It seemed hopeless, but Burns suggested that there might be an opportunity to use Iran’s attack to our advantage. If we helped defeat it, Netanyahu would owe us, and Sinwar would see that even a direct attack by Iran could not improve Hamas’s position.

拜登打断他说:“我不想听这些了。我会帮助以色列抵御伊朗的攻击,但之后美国会立即采取行动结束战争并解救人质。就这么简单。”说完,他便挂断了电话。这次通话非常短暂。

Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, discussed Israel’s preparations for the missile attack and its request for U.S. military support. On Biden’s desk were orders, recommended by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, for the emergency deployment of additional forces to the region. Biden said he approved them, without hesitation. He then asked how we might return to the hostage deal. It seemed hopeless, but Burns suggested that there might be an opportunity to use Iran’s attack to our advantage. If we helped defeat it, Netanyahu would owe us, and Sinwar would see that even a direct attack by Iran could not improve Hamas’s position.

如果当时没有伊朗的袭击威胁,美国或许真的会采取对以色列不利(甚至是不可逆转的)措施。我一直在思考:这样的做法是否真的更好……我们都希望战争能够结束;这场战争在各个方面都充满了恐怖与残酷。那么,实现这一目标的手段,究竟应该是通过人质交换和停火协议(我们一直以来所坚持的路线),还是直接要求以色列停止战斗(即使它正在多条战线上遭受攻击)呢?

“If we don’t defeat it?” Biden asked, unconvinced. The answer was regional war. Israel had already prepared a counterattack in the event that Iran’s missiles caused Israeli casualties. “Great,” Biden said.

如果真的有更好的办法来结束这场危机,拜登肯定会选择那个办法。他曾经尝试通过联合国决议来推动无条件停火,也试图加大公众舆论的压力……但这些努力似乎只让局势变得更加糟糕。

The Situation Room connected the call. Biden jumped in. “Bibi, man, what the fuck are you doing?” He gripped the phone tight. “You think I’m Santa Claus? No Santa in Israel, pal.” When Netanyahu asked what he meant, Biden said he could cut off military aid to Israel with the snap of a finger, leaving the country on its own. Netanyahu retorted that Israel would defend itself even without the United States. (We later learned that he concluded from this call that we were cutting military supplies.) Returning to his prepared points, Biden made specific requests regarding humanitarian aid and opening additional crossings into northern Gaza. Netanyahu began to discuss Israel’s preliminary assessment of the strike on the aid workers, claiming that it was more complicated than what was being reported in the news—a tragic miscommunication.

这场冲突涉及多方交战方;对以色列施加更大的舆论压力并没有阻止战争的继续,反而可能激励了那些反对以色列的一方。我从未见过拜登如此愤怒——他简直气得直咬牙切齿。

The Situation Room connected the call. Biden jumped in. “Bibi, man, what the fuck are you doing?” He gripped the phone tight. “You think I’m Santa Claus? No Santa in Israel, pal.” When Netanyahu asked what he meant, Biden said he could cut off military aid to Israel with the snap of a finger, leaving the country on its own. Netanyahu retorted that Israel would defend itself even without the United States. (We later learned that he concluded from this call that we were cutting military supplies.) Returning to his prepared points, Biden made specific requests regarding humanitarian aid and opening additional crossings into northern Gaza. Netanyahu began to discuss Israel’s preliminary assessment of the strike on the aid workers, claiming that it was more complicated than what was being reported in the news—a tragic miscommunication.

沙利文拿出一张记事卡,开始起草会议纪要——这份纪要将作为这次通话的官方总结。我们曾讨论过是否应该公开威胁要削减对以色列的军事援助;但在数百枚伊朗导弹即将发射的背景下,拜登觉得这样做并不妥当。最终的会议纪要指出,美国的政策“将取决于我们对以色列在应对平民伤亡、人道主义危机以及援助人员安全问题方面所采取的具体、可衡量的行动的评估”。同时,纪要也提到拜登“明确表示,美国在面对伊朗的威胁时坚决支持以色列”。这确实是一个矛盾的局面:尽管拜登对当前局势感到非常沮丧,也对内塔尼亚胡感到不满,但以色列却正面临着共同的敌人的攻击。伊朗之所以如此自信,是因为他们认为拜登可能会迫不得已与以色列断绝关系;然而,他们显然低估了拜登的决心。

Biden interrupted: “I don’t want to hear it, Bibi.” He said he’d help defend Israel against Iran, but then the U.S. would move immediately to end the war and free the hostages. “That’s the deal, pal.” He hung up abruptly. It was a short call. If not for the pending Iranian attack, the U.S. might have taken irreversible measures against Israel at this juncture. My own mind wrestled with whether this might have been a better course. We all wanted the war to end. It was a sickening horror in every dimension. Was the means to that end the hostage and cease-fire deal—the course we had been on—or simply telling Israel to stop, even as it was under attack on multiple fronts? If there was a better way to end the crisis, Biden would have taken it. He had tried a UN resolution calling for an unconditional cease-fire. He had tried increasing public pressure. Those steps only seemed to make the situation worse.

4月13日星期六,拜登在情况室的会议桌上就座。他刚从特拉华州雷霍博斯海滩的家中赶来,夹克上的两颗纽扣还没有扣上。

There were multiple belligerents in this conflict. Increasing public pressure on Israel did not stop the war. It seemed to encourage those fighting against it.

我从清晨起就一直在白宫工作,负责协调以色列与该地区其他国家的防御行动。伊朗的攻击大约在下午3点30分开始:首先发射了200架无人机,90分钟后又发射了30枚巡航导弹。当拜登到达时,这些导弹都已经升空并朝以色列方向飞去;而弹道导弹则尚未发射。

I had never seen Biden so frustrated—spitting mad, literally.

无人机从伊朗飞往以色列需要3小时的时间,巡航导弹需要大约一半的时间,弹道导弹则需要13分钟。伊朗的攻击计划安排得非常精确,所有导弹都将在同一时刻抵达以色列,目的是压倒以色列的防空系统,从而让那些携带重型弹头的弹道导弹能够击中目标。

Sullivan took out a note card to draft the readout, the official summary of the call. We debated whether to publicly threaten to cut military aid to Israel. Biden was not comfortable doing so at a moment when hundreds of Iranian missiles were being readied for launch. The final readout warned that U.S. policy “will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action” on “specific, concrete, and measurable steps to address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers.” At the same time, it said that Biden had “made clear that the United States strongly supports Israel in the face of [Iran’s] threats.” This was the paradox. For all Biden’s frustration with the situation, and with Netanyahu, Israel was under attack from common enemies. Fueling Iran’s confidence was the belief that Biden was under pressure to break with Israel. Iran seemed to believe that a missile attack against Israel might help push Biden over the edge. That proved to be a miscalculation.

当天早些时候,德黑兰曾发出警告称:如果美国协助以色列进行防御,美国将无法再控制伊拉克和叙利亚的武装组织;自今年2月美国发动空袭以来,这些武装组织从未向美军人员开过一枪。与此同时,赫尔佐格(Herzog)和齐尔伯曼(Zilberman)来到我的办公室,讨论以色列可能对伊朗袭击作出的反应。齐尔伯曼表示:“如果伊朗的导弹击中了以色列人,那么伊朗根本无法预料到自己会面临什么后果。”他的拳头重重地砸在了我的办公桌上。

On Saturday, April 13, Biden took his seat at the head of the table in the Situation Room. He’d just come from his home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, and had two shirt buttons undone beneath his jacket.

与拜登一同坐在情况室的还有奥斯汀(Austin)、布林肯(Blinken)、沙利文(Sullivan)、参谋长联席会议主席布朗(General C.Q. Brown)以及其他高级顾问。哈里斯(Harris)通过视频连线从洛杉矶参与会议;负责监督美国军事行动的埃里克·库里拉(Erik Kurilla)则通过视频从佛罗里达州坦帕市的总部参与讨论。

I had been at the White House since early in the morning to help coordinate Israel’s defense with other countries in the region. Iran’s attack began around 3:30 p.m. with 200 drones, followed 90 minutes later by 30 cruise missiles. Those were all in the air and flying toward Israel by the time Biden arrived. The ballistic missiles had yet to launch.

拜登询问了我们的准备工作。在过去的96小时内,美国加强了以色列境内及周边的防御措施,部署了军事力量和战斗机中队,并与阿拉伯及欧洲国家组成的临时联盟进行了协调。奥斯汀回答说:“我们已经尽了最大努力。”

The flight time for drones from Iran to Israel was three hours. Cruise missiles took about half that time, and ballistic missiles took 13 minutes. Iran’s launch sequence ensured that all of the attacks would converge on Israel at the same moment. The aim was to overwhelm Israeli air defenses and allow the heavy-payload ballistic missiles to hit their targets.

“内塔尼亚胡(Netanyahu)在哪里?”拜登问道。内塔尼亚胡当时正在以色列的地下指挥中心,他打算在那里等待袭击结束后再决定如何应对。伯恩斯(Burns)详细阐述了各种可能的情景:如果伊朗的袭击导致以色列人伤亡,以色列将会对伊朗发动大规模的空袭。这将是几十年来中东地区首次发生国家间的直接冲突,同时也有可能将美国卷入其中。

Earlier that day, Tehran had sent a message warning that if the U.S. helped defend Israel, it could no longer restrain militias in Iraq and Syria, which had not fired a shot against U.S. personnel since our air strikes in February. Meanwhile, Herzog and Zilberman had visited my office to review Israel’s potential response to an Iranian attack. If Iran’s missiles killed Israelis, Zilberman said, then Iran had no idea what was coming. His large fist pounded my desk.

拜登表示绝不允许这种情况发生。不过,我心里想:也许我们真的别无选择……据库里拉报道,美国空军中队在叙利亚、伊拉克和沙特阿拉伯上空击落了数十架飞行速度较慢的伊朗无人机。他称这次行动非常容易取胜(即“简直像打猎一样轻松”)。其中一名飞行员是凯文·墨菲中校。他在几天前还待在北卡罗来纳州的家中,后来他在《空军与太空力量杂志》中回忆了这一经历。他在中东地区抵达的时间距离该地区成为自朝鲜战争以来最大的空战区域仅过去了24小时。墨菲和他的武器官乔治·韦尔顿少校,以及他们所在的中队其他成员,共同击落了二十多架无人机。成功拦截这些无人机对于保护美国的防空系统至关重要——因为这些无人机可能是伊朗发动弹道导弹攻击的前奏。

Seated in the Situation Room with Biden were Austin, Blinken, Sullivan, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General C. Q. Brown, and other senior advisers. Harris was on a video feed from Los Angeles. General Erik Kurilla, overseeing U.S. operations, was on video from his headquarters in Tampa, Florida. Biden asked about our preparations. Over the previous 96 hours, the U.S. had strengthened defenses in and around Israel, deployed military assets and fighter squadrons, and coordinated with a makeshift coalition of Arab and European states. “Good as we could do,” Austin said. “Where’s Bibi?” Biden asked. Netanyahu was in an underground command center in Israel, where he planned to ride out the attack and then determine how to respond. Burns sketched out possible scenarios. If Iran’s attacks killed Israelis, Israel would launch a large air attack on Iran. This would bring a state-on-state conflict to the Middle East for the first time in decades, with the risk of drawing in the U.S.

“弹道导弹才是真正的威胁,”奥斯汀说道。伊朗的弹道导弹飞行速度可达每小时5000英里,能够携带1000磅重的弹头精准地击中目标。美国和以色列的防空系统堪称世界最先进的,但如果伊朗发射足够多的导弹,那么至少有一些导弹肯定能够突破防御系统并击中目标。

Biden said he would not allow that to happen. We may not have a choice, I thought.

在地中海东部,美国驱逐舰与以色列的地面防御系统协同作战;由美国陆军操作的“爱国者”反导系统也部署在中东各地(从伊拉克到约旦),持续监视天空中的目标。

Kurilla reported that American air squadrons were taking down dozens of slow-flying Iranian drones over Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. He called it a turkey shoot. One of those pilots was Lieutenant Colonel Kevin Murphy. Days earlier, he had been at home in North Carolina, he later recalled in Air & Space Forces Magazine. He arrived in the Middle East less than 24 hours before it became the largest aerial combat zone since the Korean War. Murphy and his weapons officer, Major George Welton, along with the rest of their squadron, shot down two dozen drones. Defeating these first salvos was critical for saving the main air defenses for the ballistic-missile attack.

“最坏的情况会怎样?”拜登问道。没有人能确切知道伊朗会一次性发射多少枚导弹。最坏的估计是50枚或更多。

Kurilla reported that American air squadrons were taking down dozens of slow-flying Iranian drones over Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. He called it a turkey shoot. One of those pilots was Lieutenant Colonel Kevin Murphy. Days earlier, he had been at home in North Carolina, he later recalled in Air & Space Forces Magazine. He arrived in the Middle East less than 24 hours before it became the largest aerial combat zone since the Korean War. Murphy and his weapons officer, Major George Welton, along with the rest of their squadron, shot down two dozen drones. Defeating these first salvos was critical for saving the main air defenses for the ballistic-missile attack.

“那么我们就只能等待吗?”拜登再次问道。在场的人纷纷点头表示同意。

Kurilla reported that American air squadrons were taking down dozens of slow-flying Iranian drones over Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. He called it a turkey shoot. One of those pilots was Lieutenant Colonel Kevin Murphy. Days earlier, he had been at home in North Carolina, he later recalled in Air & Space Forces Magazine. He arrived in the Middle East less than 24 hours before it became the largest aerial combat zone since the Korean War. Murphy and his weapons officer, Major George Welton, along with the rest of their squadron, shot down two dozen drones. Defeating these first salvos was critical for saving the main air defenses for the ballistic-missile attack.

我面前的墙上突然显示出一道道黄色的光迹——这些光迹表明伊朗的导弹正在发射中。库里拉打开麦克风说道:“总统先生、国务卿先生,我们已经确认伊朗确实发动了弹道导弹攻击,总共发射了30枚导弹。”奥斯汀回答道:“我们有能力应对这30枚导弹。”

“Ballistic missiles could be the challenge,” Austin said. Iran’s ballistic missiles could descend at speeds of 5,000 miles per hour, striking targets with precision while carrying a 1,000-pound warhead. U.S. and Israeli air-defense systems are the best in the world, but if Iran launched enough missiles, it was a near certainty that some would get through and reach their targets.

这些导弹从伊朗各地发射出来,随着它们接近大气层边缘,速度逐渐加快。片刻之后,库里拉报告道:“总统先生,又有30枚导弹被发射了。”拜登问道:“又是30枚?”库里拉确认此时空中已有60枚导弹在飞行。更多的黄色轨迹从伊朗境内出现;第一波导弹横向飞越伊拉克,直奔以色列的目标地。“这确实是个严峻的挑战,”奥斯汀说道。

In the eastern Mediterranean, American destroyers readied in coordination with Israeli land-based defenses. Patriot anti-missile batteries operated by the U.S. Army stood by across the Middle East, from Iraq to Jordan, scanning the skies for targets. “What’s your worst case?” Biden asked. Nobody knew for sure how many missiles the Iranians might shoot at once. The worst-case scenario was thought to be 50 or more.

“距离我们的防御系统启动还有六分钟,”库里拉说。我从未在这个房间里感到如此无助——这里可是地球上最强大国家的指挥中心。我知道我们会首先发射哪些拦截导弹,以及如果这些拦截导弹失败后该使用哪些备用方案;我也清楚接下来会发生的一切。然而,坐在那张桌子前的我,第一次低下了头,默默祈祷起来。

“So we just wait?” Biden asked. Heads nodded. The screen on the wall in front of me suddenly showed yellow streaks rising from Iran. Kurilla opened his mic: “Mr. President, Mr. Secretary, we have confirmed ballistic-missile launches. Thirty launches total from tracks.” “We can handle 30,” Austin said.

伊朗境内的数字地图上又出现了更多的黄色轨迹,表明又有新的导弹被发射了。此时,空中共有90枚导弹,分三波飞来。库里拉宣布:“我需要下楼去协调防御工作。”

The streaks rose from across Iran and built up speed as they approached the edge of the atmosphere. Kurilla, moments later: “Thirty new launches, Mr. President.” “Thirty new launches?” Biden asked. Kurilla confirmed that there were now 60 missiles in the air. More yellow streaks rose from Iran as the first wave curved horizontally across Iraq, heading for targets in Israel.

“90枚?”拜登惊呼道。片刻之后,又有更多的导弹被发射出来;我简直不敢相信自己的眼睛。库里拉确认了第四波导弹的发射;此时已经有超过100枚弹道导弹正向以色列飞去。所有人都沉默不语;许多人,和我一样,都在默默祈祷。

“That’s a challenge,” Austin said.

在导弹到达我们的防御系统射程前四分钟,房间里安静得几乎可以听到墙上数字时钟的嗡嗡声。接着,屏幕的另一侧出现了新的轨迹:以色列的拦截导弹以及海上的美国驱逐舰发射的拦截导弹也在升空;此外,其他地方的“爱国者”防空系统也启动了。以色列的“箭”型拦截导弹达到了9马赫(即每秒超过1英里的速度);美国的驱逐舰则发射了速度更快的SM-3拦截导弹,这些拦截导弹在数十秒内就追上了来袭的导弹,并在它们进入大气层之前将其击落。

“Six minutes before defenses engage,” Kurilla said. I had never felt so helpless in this room, the command center of the most powerful country on Earth. I knew what interceptors we would fire first, the backups if they failed—everything that was about to transpire. Yet, for the first time ever while seated at that table, I bowed my head and prayed. More yellow lines rose from the digital map of Iran. Kurilla confirmed a third salvo. Ninety missiles were now in the air, coming in three waves. “I’m dropping to coordinate defense,” he said. “Ninety?” Biden said. Moments later, more streaks. I couldn’t believe my eyes. Kurilla confirmed a fourth salvo. There were now more than 100 ballistic missiles flying toward Israel. Nobody said a word. Many, like me, were seemingly in quiet prayer.

三面墙上的显示屏上显示着数百枚导弹与拦截器的运动轨迹,整个场景就像一款多人在线视频游戏一样。这一切看起来都不真实……突然,屏幕上出现了刺眼的白色闪光:卫星图像显示,那些拦截器在距离地球60英里的高空发生了爆炸。

Four minutes before the missiles reached the range of our defenses, the room was so quiet that you could hear a digital red clock humming on the wall. Then streaks appeared from the other side of the screen: interceptors launching from Israel and our destroyers at sea, and Patriots from elsewhere. Israel’s Arrows built speed to Mach 9, more than one mile per second. American destroyers fired SM-3 interceptors that traveled even faster, reaching incoming missiles above the atmosphere in tens of seconds.

“防御系统已经启动了,”库里拉平静地说道。从以色列到黎巴嫩、叙利亚、约旦,整个中东地区都被突如其来的爆炸所笼罩。

Four minutes before the missiles reached the range of our defenses, the room was so quiet that you could hear a digital red clock humming on the wall. Then streaks appeared from the other side of the screen: interceptors launching from Israel and our destroyers at sea, and Patriots from elsewhere. Israel’s Arrows built speed to Mach 9, more than one mile per second. American destroyers fired SM-3 interceptors that traveled even faster, reaching incoming missiles above the atmosphere in tens of seconds.

在距离白宫6000英里的驾驶舱里,墨菲看到拦截器正在升空,准备拦截那些高悬在空中的导弹。四周到处都是巨大的爆炸声,随后大量碎片开始朝他的飞机坠落。“你只能继续飞行,”他回忆道,“心里充满恐惧,但依然必须坚持原来的飞行路线。”

Screens across three walls tracked hundreds of converging missiles and interceptors, like a multiplayer video game. It did not seem real. Suddenly, bright-white flashes burst onto the screens: Satellite imaging was picking up the interceptors as they exploded 60 miles above the Earth.

“有导弹击中目标了吗?”拜登问道。库里拉回答说:“目前还无法确定。”

Screens across three walls tracked hundreds of converging missiles and interceptors, like a multiplayer video game. It did not seem real. Suddenly, bright-white flashes burst onto the screens: Satellite imaging was picking up the interceptors as they exploded 60 miles above the Earth.

门突然打开了,一名值班军官递来了一张便条,上面是内特·斯旺森(我负责伊朗事务的首席顾问)发来的消息:伊朗方面表示,这次攻击已经结束;但如果以色列再次发动攻击,他们将会发动更猛烈的反击。我把便条读给了拜登听,他只是点了点头——此时涌入的信息实在太多,让人难以应对。

“Defenses engaged,” Kurilla said, stating the obvious. The entire Middle East, from Israel to Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan, was covered in apocalyptic white airbursts. Through his cockpit window 6,000 miles from the White House, Murphy saw interceptors launch to engage missiles far above him. There were massive explosions in all directions, then wreckage descending around his aircraft. “You fly through it,” he recalled. “You think skinny, you pray, and you continue on the heading that you’re on.” “Impacts?” Biden asked. Reports incoming, Kurilla said.

显示屏上的画面逐渐恢复正常:所有的导弹要么已经击中目标,要么被拦截器成功拦截。不过,地面上发生了什么,仍然无从得知。

Through his cockpit window 6,000 miles from the White House, Murphy saw interceptors launch to engage missiles far above him. There were massive explosions in all directions, then wreckage descending around his aircraft. “You fly through it,” he recalled. “You think skinny, you pray, and you continue on the heading that you’re on.” “Impacts?” Biden asked. Reports incoming, Kurilla said.

“埃里克,汇报一下情况吧,”奥斯汀命令道。库里拉回答说:“在以色列境内,没有确认有任何导弹击中目标的记录。看来我们的防御系统发挥了作用。”

“We won’t know straightaway,” Brown added. The door opened. A watch officer delivered a note from Nate Swanson, my lead adviser on Iran. It was a message from the Iranians, saying that what was in the air now was the end of the attack, but that they would launch a larger salvo if Israel responded. I read the note to Biden. He nodded, too much information coming in at once.

会议室里的许多人松了一口气,纷纷靠在椅背上。“感谢上帝……”有人说道。

The door opened. A watch officer delivered a note from Nate Swanson, my lead adviser on Iran. It was a message from the Iranians, saying that what was in the air now was the end of the attack, but that they would launch a larger salvo if Israel responded. I read the note to Biden. He nodded, too much information coming in at once.

但我依然保持着警惕:“我们还需要等待进一步的确认才能确定情况。”奥斯汀提醒道。库里拉再次确认:“以色列方面也确认没有发生任何重大损失。”

The screens gradually cleared. All of the missiles had either reached their targets or been intercepted. There was nothing to indicate what had happened at ground level.

“做得不错,”奥斯汀轻声说道,“除非伊朗再次发动攻击……”我问道:“他们声称不会这么做。”

“Erik, report,” Austin said. Kurilla answered that we had no confirmed impacts in Israel. The defenses appeared to have been successful.

拜登向沙利文点了点头:“马上把内塔尼亚胡总统叫过来。”我又问:“你想对他说什么?”

Many in the Situation Room leaned back in their chairs with sighs of relief. “Thank God,” someone said.

“我刚刚救了你们的命,就是这么回事。别再说了。”苏利文补充道。在房间外,我与以色列方面取得了联系。内塔尼亚胡要求在接听电话前先等待30分钟,这进一步激怒了拜登。

I remained on edge. “We won’t know for certain yet,” Austin warned. Kurilla again: “Israelis confirm no significant impacts.” “Pretty good,” Austin said quietly. “Unless Iran fires more.” “They claim they won’t,” I said.

“他知道我们刚刚救了他们的命吗?”拜登问道。这是美国军队——更不用说美国军队与欧洲和阿拉伯国家组成的联军——第一次联合起来为以色列作战。拜登非常清楚这一历史性时刻的重要性,现在的问题是如何利用这一机会。苏利文建议我们利用这段时间来起草拜登要对内塔尼亚胡说的话。“快去吧。”总统命令道。

Biden nodded to Sullivan. “Get Bibi on the line.” “What do you want to say to him?” I asked. “I just saved his ass, that’s what. Cut this off here.” “Take the win,” Sullivan added. Outside the room, I connected with the Israelis in their bunker. Netanyahu asked for 30 minutes before taking the call, which further riled up Biden.

我和国家安全事务副顾问乔恩·菲纳跟随苏利文来到他的办公室,他在办公桌后认真地起草讲话稿。在起草内容时,我们选择了苏利文的表述方式(“我们救了你们的命”),而不是拜登的原话。我们建议总统要求以色列方面采取能够减少人员伤亡的措施,并尽快结束双方的交火,之后再继续讨论人质问题。

“Does he know we just saved his ass?” Biden asked. This was the first time the U.S. military—let alone the U.S. military together with a coalition of European and Arab countries—had fought to defend Israel. The moment was not lost on Biden. Now the question was how to leverage it. Sullivan recommended that we use the time to craft what Biden would say to Netanyahu. “Go,” the president said. “Hurry up.”

内塔尼亚胡已经准备好接电话了。回到情况室后,我们把起草好的讲话稿交给了拜登。他仔细阅读后做了一些修改,然后说道:“开始通话吧。”

Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer and I went with Sullivan to his office and huddled behind his desk as he typed out talking points. For the key takeaway, we chose to use Sullivan’s formulation (“Take the win”) instead of Biden’s (“I just saved your ass”). We recommended that the president ask Israel to respond in a way that inflicted few casualties and aimed to end the direct exchange of fire. Then we would get back to the hostage deal.

内塔尼亚胡的声音通过扬声器传来:“嗨,乔,今晚真是紧张又刺激的夜晚啊……看起来你们都安然无恙,比比。”此时,只有一名以色列南部居民因弹片受伤。

Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer and I went with Sullivan to his office and huddled behind his desk as he typed out talking points. For the key takeaway, we chose to use Sullivan’s formulation (“Take the win”) instead of Biden’s (“I just saved your ass”). We recommended that the president ask Israel to respond in a way that inflicted few casualties and aimed to end the direct exchange of fire. Then we would get back to the hostage deal.

“我还在接收相关报告,不过好消息是我们的防御系统发挥了作用。”“是我们的防御系统发挥了作用,比比……”“乔,是我们共同努力的结果——我们的军队和各个团队共同作战的成果。这真是历史性的一刻。难以置信,竟然有这么多国家联合起来对抗以色列……但关键在于:这些疯子竟然敢向以色列发射数百枚导弹——这种事以前从未发生过。”内塔尼亚胡强调道,“以色列需要美国的支持。”

Netanyahu was ready for the call. Back in the Situation Room, we handed Biden a draft. He read it aloud, made a few adjustments, and said, “Put him on.” Netanyahu’s voice came through the speakers: “Hi, Joe, quite a night here.” “Looks like you’ve come out okay, Bibi.” By this time, only one casualty had been confirmed, a young girl wounded by falling shrapnel in southern Israel. “I’m still getting reports, but yes, the good news is the defenses worked.” “Our defenses, Bibi—”

“面对这些来自伊朗的疯子……他们也是你们的敌人。”拜登回应道。

“Joe, we worked together, our militaries and our teams. It’s historic. Unbelievable, a coalition of militaries; I know it. But, Joe, the lesson is that these maniacs are willing to fire hundreds of missiles at Israel–this has never been done before, nowhere.” The lesson was that Israel needed the United States, Biden pressed.

“必须采取果断的行动,”拜登突然说道。他解释说,以色列完全有权利作出回应,但这种回应必须与我们共同商讨并制定出来,其目的应该是遏制事态的升级,而不是进一步激化冲突。他敦促以色列方面“慢慢来,确保决策的正确性”。

“Joe, we worked together, our militaries and our teams. It’s historic. Unbelievable, a coalition of militaries; I know it. But, Joe, the lesson is that these maniacs are willing to fire hundreds of missiles at Israel–this has never been done before, nowhere.” The lesson was that Israel needed the United States, Biden pressed. “Against these maniacs from Iran; they’re your enemies too,” Netanyahu said.

内塔尼亚胡的态度并不明确,他表示需要等待第二天情况明朗后再做决定。“我们必须给这些疯子一个教训,”他说。

“Take the win,” Biden said abruptly. He explained that Israel had every right to respond, but the response should be developed with us and designed to deter, not escalate. Take your time and get it right, he urged.

拜登再次敦促内塔尼亚胡与我们合作,共同制定应对措施,并表示我们的军事团队会与以色列方面进行协调。

Netanyahu was noncommittal. He had to see what the light of day brought to Israel. “We need to teach these maniacs a lesson,” he said.

“让我们让双方团队先讨论一下吧,”内塔尼亚胡提议。双方同意尽快再次通话。通话结束后,拜登转向我们,双手摊开,询问我们的意见。

Biden again pressed Bibi to take the win and work with us on a response. He said our military team would coordinate with Netanyahu’s.

“他已经听到了你们的意见,”沙利文说。奥斯汀表示他会与以色列方面合作,共同研究应对方案。此时已接近晚上10点,漫长的夜晚即将开始……不久后,我们又收到了来自伊朗的消息,再次警告我们不要支持以色列。随后,伊朗驻纽约的联合国代表团也发表了一份公开声明,称“美国必须保持中立!!”自10月7日以来,德黑兰的态度似乎首次显得十分焦虑。

“Let’s have our teams discuss it,” Netanyahu said. They agreed to talk again soon. The call dropped. Biden turned back to us with his palms up, asking for our views. “He heard you,” Sullivan said. Austin said he’d work with the Israelis on response options. It was approaching 10 p.m., with a long night ahead. We soon received another message from Iran, warning us again not to support Israel. Then a public message from Iran’s UN mission in New York: “US MUST STAY AWAY!!” For the first time since October 7, I thought, Tehran seemed anxious.

第二天早上,拜登与负责防御工作的飞行员及空军指挥官们进行了谈话,其中包括墨菲和韦尔顿所在的飞行中队。作为最高指挥官,他对他们的表现表达了衷心的感谢。“这就是我们训练的目的,”其中一名飞行员说道。

The following morning, Biden spoke with the pilots and air commanders responsible for the defense, including Murphy and Welton’s squadron. He expressed gratitude as commander in chief for what they had just done. “It’s what we train for, sir,” said one of the pilots.

“我想你们昨晚肯定没有接受过类似的训练……”拜登说,“这种情况从未发生过。我们现在没有陷入大规模战争,全靠你们的行动。真的,谢谢你们!你们拯救了世界。”这篇文章改编自布雷特·麦格克的新书《Brink: Inside the Race to Free the October 7th Hostages》。

“I don’t think you ever trained for last night,” Biden said. “There’s never been anything like it. The only reason we’re not in a major war right now is because of what you did. I mean it, guys. Thank you, thank you, thank you. You saved the world; I mean it. God bless you.” This article is adapted from Brett McGurk’s new book, Brink: Inside the Race to Free the October 7th Hostages.

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