纽约是众多州中最新一个对所谓的“预测市场”说“够了”的州。周四，纽约州总检察长莱蒂蒂亚·詹姆斯起诉 Polymarket，指控其经营“非法赌博业务”，这距离她对 Kalshi 提起类似诉讼仅过去两个月。几小时后，Polymarket 反诉，声称该州无权对其执行赌博法。第二天，在与俄亥俄州和田纳西州的争端中，一家联邦地区法院在管辖权问题上裁定 Kalshi 胜诉，称这是联邦事务，这与第九巡回法院今夏早些时候赋予内华达州管辖权的裁决相矛盾。
New York is the latest in a long line states to say “enough is enough” to so-called prediction markets. On Thursday, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed suit against Polymarket for running an “illegal gambling operation,” two months after she filed a similar lawsuit against Kalshi Hours later, Polymarket sued back, claiming that the state may not enforce gambling laws against it. The next day, in a dispute with Ohio and Tennessee, a federal district court ruled in Kalshi’s favor on the matter of jurisdiction, saying that it was a federal matter, contradicting a ruling by the 9th Circuit earlier this summer that gave Nevada authority over the matter.
这只是州政府与腐败的特朗普政府之间长期争端中的最新一轮交锋。这又是白宫“明码标价”式运作如何纵容美国社会最恶劣分子的另一个例证。
These are just the latest salvos in a long-running dispute pitting states against the corrupt Trump administration. It’s another example of how the “For Sale” front of the White House is enabling the worst players in American life.
预测市场兴起于 2010 年代末，得益于最高法院推翻联邦体育博彩禁令、各州争相将其合法化、技术进步让赌场进入我们的口袋，以及联邦商品法中的一个漏洞。预测市场利用这一漏洞，该漏洞似乎允许它们声称自己作为投机性金融交易所或金融掉期运营，从而规避各州对机会游戏和博彩的监管。Kalshi 此前曾自称“首个全国合法体育博彩平台”。
Prediction markets emerged in the late 2010s, thanks to the Supreme Court rolling back a federal ban on sports gambling and states rushing to legalize it, technological advances that put casinos in our pockets and a loophole federal commodities law Prediction markets utilize this loophole, which appears to allow them to claim they operate as speculative financial exchanges, or financial swaps, so as to evade state regulations on games of chance and betting.
但如果你觉得购买一份“指定合约市场”交易、押注纽约洋基队将战胜巴尔的摩金莺队听起来像赌博，你绝非孤例。事实上，Kalshi 此前曾自称“首个全国合法体育博彩平台”。正如《纽约时报》曾所言：“你所在的州体育博彩违法？若称其为‘预测市场’则不然。”
Kalshi previously advertised itself as the “First Nationwide Legal Sports Betting Platform.”
拜登政府对这一切持负面态度。监管衍生品市场的商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）出台规则，禁止政治、体育和战争相关的事件合约。拜登时代的 CFTC 还对预测市场采取了多项行动——包括禁止 Kalshi 上市“哪个政党将控制国会”的“合约”，以及因体育“合约”对 Crypto.com 展开调查。拜登的司法部调查了 Polymarket 及其首席执行官 Shayne Coplan，指控他们涉嫌允许美国用户押注无牌照选举合约，尽管该公司已与美国政府达成法院和解，同意停止此类合约的运营。
But if purchasing a “designated contract market” transaction saying the New York Yankees will win a game against the Baltimore Orioles sounds like gambling to you, you are hardly alone. In fact, Kalshi previously advertised itself as the “First Nationwide Legal Sports Betting Platform.” As the New York Times once put it“Is Sports Betting Illegal in Your State? Not if You Call It a ‘Prediction Market.’”
自从唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫以来，一切都变了。Kalshi 聘请唐纳德·特朗普 Jr. 担任“战略顾问”，并给了他公司股份，如今价值 220 亿美元。Polymarket 也不甘示弱，将其风投公司列为资金方和主要股东之一——特朗普 Jr. 还坐在 Polymarket 的顾问委员会里。白宫因预测市场交易激增而面临伦理质疑 2026 年 7 月 20 日与此同时，总统提名迈克尔·塞利格——一位曾代表加密货币预测市场客户的律师——担任 CFTC（商品期货交易委员会）主席。同时，特朗普总统没有公开提名任何其他共和党或民主党委员来填补通常由五名委员组成的委员会。这使得塞利格单方面控制了 CFTC。
The Biden administration took a dim view of all this. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates derivatives markets, introduced a rule ban political, sport and war-related event contracts The Biden-era CFTC also took several actions against prediction markets — including banning Kalshi from listing “contracts” on which political party would control Congress and opening an investigation into Crypto.com for sports “contracts.” Biden’s Justice Department investigated Polymarket its CEO, Shayne Coplan for allegedly letting U.S. users bet on unlicensed election contracts despite a court settlement with the U.S government that required the company to cease operations of such contracts.
接下来发生的事不足为奇。历史上，虽然各州对赌博拥有管辖权，但塞利格领导下的 CFTC 采取了一系列前所未有的举措，不仅监管预测市场，还彻底将各州排除在外。仅今年一年，CFTC 就起诉了九个由民主党州长领导的州，以阻止它们打击该行业（而对一些共和党州长的类似抵制视而不见）。
All that changed when Donald Trump returned to the White House. Kalshi brought on Donald Trump Jr. as “strategic adviser” and gave him a stake in the company that is now worth $22 billion Not to be outdone, Polymarket counts his venture capital firm as a funder and one of its top equity holders— and Trump Jr. sits on Polymarket’s advisory board White House is facing ethics questions amid surge in trades on prediction markets July 20, 2026 Meanwhile, the president nominated Michael Selig — an attorney who previously represented cryptocurrency prediction market clients — as chair of the CFTC. At the same time, President Trump made no public effort to nominate any other Republican or Democratic commissioners to fill out what is normally a five-member commission. This gave Selig unilateral control over the CFTC.
据《纽约时报》报道，在两次事件中，“该机构指示预测市场绕过法院命令，援引几十年来未曾使用的紧急权力。”CFTC 还撤回了针对 Kalshi 选举博彩案件的上诉及其关于事件合约的规则制定。这些公司甚至在就潜在法规向 CFTC 提供建议。当然，特朗普声称委员会保持对该行业的专属管辖权“至关重要”。
What happened next should come as no surprise. Historically, while states have held jurisdiction over gambling the CFTC under Selig has taken a number of unprecedented steps not only to regulate prediction markets but to cut the states out of the equation entirely. This year alone, the CFTC has sued nine states with Democratic governors to stop their efforts to crack down on the industry (while ignoring similar pushback from some Republican governors).
该行业正积极利用法律上的混乱局面来谋取利益。Kalshi和Polymarket正在与体育联盟达成合作，并与知名演员和运动员合作开展大规模、持续不断的广告宣传活动。
On two occasions, the New York Times reported“the agency has instructed the prediction markets to sidestep court orders, invoking emergency powers that it hadn’t used for decades.” The CFTC also dropped its appeal in the case against Kalshi for election betting and its rulemaking regarding event contracts The companies themselves are even advising the CFTC on potential regulations And, of course, Trump claims that it is “critically important” for the commission to maintain exclusive authority over the industry.
今年早些时候，明尼苏达州成为美国首个允许运营预测市场的州。然而第二天，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）就对该州提起诉讼，联邦法官在案件审理期间暂停了该法律的执行。目前有14个州正在考虑制定相关法规来规范这一行业；至少有12个州已向这些公司发出停止违规行为的函件或提起诉讼，理由是它们违反了当地的赌博法规、消费者保护法或宪法。最高法院最终可能会介入此案——事实上，新泽西州本月早些时候还请求最高法院解决管辖权问题。
The industry is moving aggressively to take advantage of the legal confusion. Kalshi and Polymarket are securing deals with sports leagues and running expensive and relentless ad campaigns with big-name actors and athletes.
Kalshi和Polymarket通过与体育联盟的合作以及大规模的广告宣传来扩大其影响力。最近的一则Polymarket广告中出现了勒布朗·詹姆斯（LeBron James）和斯派克·李（Spike Lee）等众多知名人士。这些公司还与社交媒体影响者和内容创作者合作，甚至据称曾付钱让他们发布虚假的“巨额赢利”信息。他们的目标似乎是让预测市场变得如此受欢迎，以至于政策制定者无法再对其提出质疑。
Earlier this year, Minnesota became the first state to the operation of prediction markets. The very next day, the CFTC filed a lawsuit against the state, and a federal judge paused the law while the case continued. Fourteen states are currently weighing legislation to regulate the industry, and at least a dozen states have sent cease-and-desist letters (or sued) to halt prediction market operations for violating state gambling laws, consumer protection laws or state constitutions. An eventual date with the Supreme Court seems likely — in fact, earlier this month New Jersey asked the justices to resolve the jurisdiction issue.
众议员斯坦斯伯里（Stansbury）评论道：“特朗普及其家族所做的每一件事似乎都存在利益冲突。”
The industry is moving aggressively take advantage of the legal confusion Kalshi and Polymarket are securing deals with sports leagues and running expensive and relentless ad campaigns big-name actors and athletes One recent Polymarket ad featured LeBron James and Spike Lee among more than a dozen celebrities The companies also work with social media influencers and content creators, including by allegedly paying some of them to post fake big-dollar wins. The goal, it seems, is to ultimately become so popular that policymakers won’t challenge it Oversight Rep. Stansbury: ‘Everything Trump and his family do appears to be a conflict of interest’ September 21, 2026 Thankfully, states like New York are refusing to give up the fight. That’s in part because the harms from prediction markets are as easy to see as their commercials.
幸运的是，像纽约州这样的地方政府并未放弃打击这些非法行为的努力。部分原因在于：预测市场带来的危害显而易见，就像它们的广告一样清晰可见。
The markets have incentivized rampant insider trading manipulation from people in the know including a White House teleprompter operator who was forced out of his job after using his inside knowledge to place bets on Trump’s speeches. There were also suspiciously timed and correct bets on who would join the Super Bowl halftime show. The companies allow people to bet on abhorrent events and scenarios like wildfires wars clinical trials for diseases like cancer.
市场环境实际上鼓励了那些掌握内幕信息的人进行猖獗的内幕交易和操纵行为；其中甚至包括一位白宫演讲稿撰写员——他因利用内幕信息对特朗普的演讲结果进行投注而被迫离职。此外，还出现了那些在时间上显得非常可疑、且投注结果完全准确的事件（比如谁会参加超级碗中场表演）。这些公司允许人们对诸如野火、战争、癌症等疾病的临床试验等令人憎恶的事件或情景进行投注。
And gambling more broadly — regardless of what term companies use for it — itself has major consequences both on an individual and a societal level These include bankruptcy, increased debt collection and the erosion public trust Prediction markets are no different because, again, they are gambling. A strong majority of people who place a bet— oops, we mean purchase a contract — on a prediction market will lose money Kalshi is even asking for the CFTC’s blessing to let people “buy contracts” on its platform with borrowed money As the legal battle between states and the federal government continues to heighten, it would be great if the Supreme Court stepped in and deemed prediction markets gambling in disguise. Ultimately, members of Congress should try to see past the flood of money flowing into the political action committees of members of both parties from the prediction market industry, and ban them outright. In the meantime, let’s applaud Letitia James and other state-level officials who continue the fight against these platforms.
更广泛地说，无论这些公司如何称呼这种行为，赌博本身都会对个人和社会产生严重后果，包括导致企业破产、增加债务催收压力以及侵蚀公众信任。预测市场也不例外——因为它们本质上也是一种赌博行为。在预测市场中，绝大多数参与投注（或者说购买相关合约）的人最终都会亏损。Kalshi公司甚至正在寻求美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的批准，以便允许用户使用借来的资金在其平台上进行投注。随着各州与联邦政府之间的法律纠纷不断升级，如果最高法院能够介入并将预测市场认定为“变相的赌博行为”，那将是非常好的。最终，国会议员们应该摒弃那些来自预测市场行业的资金流入两党政治行动委员会的现象，并彻底禁止这类市场。与此同时，让我们为Letitia James等那些持续打击这些平台的州级官员鼓掌。
The post Trump put out a ‘for sale’ sign for prediction markets. States are pushing back.
特朗普曾表示要将预测市场“出售”给私营企业，但各州政府正在对此表示强烈反对。
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