丹尼尔·莫斯：韩国非凡的经济繁荣或许还能持续一段时间，至少中央银行是这么认为的。官员们在应对外溢效应方面确实面临艰巨任务，但保持克制或许会成为最勇敢的行动选择。
By Daniel Moss South Korea’s remarkable economic boom can run for a while yet, if the central bank has any say in the matter. Officials do have their work cut out managing the spillovers, but restraint may prove to be the most courageous course of action.
鉴于经济扩张速度很快且通胀有所回升，货币当局一直相当克制。韩国央行的新行长并未惊慌失措。他似乎决心让这轮增长自然触及上限，随后再逐步降温。考虑到这轮增长既受到海外需求推动，也受到国内 developments影响，这样的做法是明智的。韩国企业向全球供应的人工智能相关材料需求巨大。
Considering the rapid clip of expansion, and the pickup in inflation, the monetary authority has been pretty restrained. The Bank of Korea’s new chief isn’t panicking. He seems determined to let the growth spurt find a natural ceiling and then deflate — gradually. This is wise, given that it’s driven as much by overseas demand as developments at home. There’s huge demand for the AI-related materials that Korean companies supply to the world.
韩国央行确实有能力采取行动：它可以阻挠增长、放缓步伐，并让本地借款人和消费者的日子更难过。官员们需要努力将通胀压低至目标水平。但他们正在释放“不急于行动”的信号，也展现出值得欢迎的谦逊态度。
The BOK does have agency: It can get in the way, slow things down and make life harder for local borrowers and consumers. Officials need to wrestle inflation down toward their target. But they are signaling no rush — and showing welcome signs of humility.
在两次加息之后，这一轮加息周期可能已接近尾声。韩国央行版“美联储点阵图”显示，未来六个月主要利率还将上调一次，升至3.25%。按国际标准看，这属于幅度相对温和的紧缩。尽管政策制定者似乎愿意让经济保持高热度，但当这轮激增最终消退时，他们仍需收拾残局。
After two interest-rate hikes, the cycle might be just about done. The bank’s version of the Federal Reserve’s dot-plot suggests one more quarter-point increase in the main rateto 3.25%over the next six months. This is a relatively modest degree of tightening by international standards. While policymakers appear comfortable letting the economy run hot, they will need to pick up the pieces when the surge eventually dissipates.
运气或许站在行长申铉松一边；市场已经替他做了一些工作。本季度韩元兑美元上涨约14%，有望创下1998年以来最佳表现之一。当时，韩国正在将亚洲金融危机最严重的阶段抛在身后。这一涨幅与过去十年韩元持续贬值的局面相去甚远，也减轻了申铉松大幅加息的 pressure。
Luck may be with Governor Shin Hyun Song; markets have done some work for him. The currency is up around 14% against the dollar this quarter, heading for one of its best performances since 1998 when the nation was putting the worst of the Asian financial crisis behind it. The move is a far cry from the declines that characterized the past decadeand eases pressure on Shin to hike aggressively.
韩元显然被低估了，但其走势终于开始与经济数据相吻合。上周公布的数据显示，9月前20天的出口较去年同期增长近90%。韩国银行（韩国央行）在上次会议上大幅上调了今年的经济增长预期，从2.6%上调至3.3%。央行决策者通常较为谨慎，政策调整往往都是渐进的。此次上调幅度之大，凸显出这个国家正经历非同寻常的繁荣时期。
The won was clearly undervalued, but its moves are finally lining up with economic numbers. Figures last week showed exports for the first 20 days of September advancing almost 90% from a year earlier. At its last meeting, the BOK made a big adjustment to its growth forecast for the year to 3.3% from 2.6%. Central bankers are usually cautious and any movements tend to be incremental. The extent of the upward revision underscores the extraordinary times the country is enjoying.
同样不可忽视的是国内情况。包括三星电子和SK海力士在内的半导体企业正斥资近1万亿美元，建设数据中心及其他设施。首尔方面希望在五年内将存储芯片产能翻番，并使韩国大幅领先于竞争对手。总统李在明坚持认为，在这个新时代，快速发展是唯一的生存之道。
It’s important not to overlook the domestic story, either. Semiconductor makers, including Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., are earmarking close to $1 trillion for data centers and other facilities. Seoul wants to double memory production capacity within five years and push the nation well ahead of competitors. President Lee Jae Myung insists that moving quickly is the only way to survive in this new era.
显然，市场需求确实旺盛。牛津经济研究院表示，美国在人工智能领域的资本支出规模在历史上几乎无与伦比。该机构估算，就技术变革带来的投资浪潮而言，只有19世纪40年代英国铁路狂热时期的人工智能投资规模更大；但这也凸显出相关风险，虚构了投资潮终将以悲剧收场的可能性。然而，要准确预测经济下行将如何到来，以及其潜在规模，却充满变数。
There’s clearly appetite. US capital spending on AI has few parallels in history, according to Oxford Economics. When it comes to technological shifts, only the railway mania in the UK during the 1840s was bigger, the firm calculated, while noting the significant risk that it ends in tears. But predicting quite how the downturn arrives, or its potential scale, is fraught.
鉴于韩国似乎有意避开这场浪潮，还可能出现什么问题？控制消费价格或许会比韩国央行预想的更加困难。所有这些支出以及对科技工程师的高额奖金，都可能令通胀居高不下。在这种情况下，温和收紧货币政策将不足以解决问题。韩国央行应吸取美联储、欧洲央行和澳大利亚央行等同行的经验教训——这些央行已被迫恢复加息，以遏制持续高企的通胀。
Given Korea seems intent to rid the wave, what else could go wrong? Consumer prices may prove harder to combat than the BOK anticipates. There’s a danger that all this spending — and big bonuses to tech engineers — will make inflation sticky. In that case, modest tightening won’t cut it. The BOK should be mindful of the experiences of peers such as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia — they’ve been forced to resume hiking to beat persistent inflation.
目前，申明（Shin）似乎采取了与前美联储高官珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）和艾伦·布林德（Alan Blinder）所倡导的“耐心货币政策”（forbearance policy）相似的立场。这种货币政策是指美国中央银行在20世纪90年代中期至后期采取的策略：在经济增长迅速的同时，避免通货膨胀失控。尽管如此，到了90年代末，美联储最终还是开始逐步提高利率。21世纪初，全球经济遭遇了轻微的经济衰退，这一衰退在一定程度上受到了科技行业低迷的影响。
For now, Shin appears to be adopting a stance akin to what former top Fed officials Janet Yellen and Alan Blinder called “forbearance.”That’s their description of the approach the US central bank took in the mid-to-late 1990s as the dom surge fueled strong growth without runaway inflation. Ultimately, as the decade ended, the Fed did begin to increase rates more aggressively. The 2000s began with a shallow recession, aided by the tech downturn.
在货币当局内部，一个经常被讨论的话题是：他们是否具备能力，或者是否有意愿，来扭转经济扩张的趋势。在疫情爆发前夕举行的一次会议上，曾于2014年至2018年担任美联储主席的耶伦指出：“经济扩张并不会因为‘自然老化’而自行结束。”她的继任者本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）的表述则更为直白：他认为经济扩张往往会被外部因素（如经济衰退）所终结。实际上，货币政策决策过程本身往往就是经济波动的根源。
One of the many debates that periodically ripple through the corridors of monetary authorities is the extent to which they have the ability, or inclination, to undo expansions. During a conference on the eve of the pandemic, Yellen, who led the Fed from 2014 to 2018, opined that growth stretches don’t expire from old age. The person she succeeded, Ben Bernanke, was less nuanced, noting they tend to get murdered. Policy is never far from the scene of the crime.
如果韩国的经济状况一切顺利，中央银行应该让这一幸运的扩张期自然结束，而不应急于采取任何措施来加速经济放缓的进程。由于官员们往往难以意识到自己已经过度干预经济，因此他们也不擅长设计那些不会演变成经济衰退的“减速机制”。对于韩国央行来说，谨慎、适度的货币政策应该是其核心立场——同时，也应保持一定的乐观态度。
All going well for Korea, the central bank will let this fortuitous period wind down of its own accord. It should resist any urge to hasten a demise. Officials aren’t great at engineering slowdowns that don’t morph into recessions because they tend not to recognize when they have overdone it. Temperance should be the defining stance of the BOK — and a healthy measure of hope. OPIN To contact the author of this story: at dmoss@bloomberg.net