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拜登移民潮的经济遗产The economic legacy of the Biden immigration surge

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这些发现揭示了疫情对美国经济产生的深远影响:移民潮在推动经济增长的同时,对本土出生工人的就业几乎没有造成负面影响;不过,这也加剧了房租通胀。

that reshaped the U.S. population after the pandemic left a big imprint on the economy: boosting growth with surprisingly little disruption to native-born workers — but also adding to rent inflation.

为何这一研究具有重要意义:上周在《布鲁金斯经济活动论文集》(Brookings Papers on Economic Activity)上发表的这项新研究,提供了迄今为止关于美国现代史上最大规模移民潮之后经济状况最详细的分析。

Why it matters: Those findings — unveiled in new research presented at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity last week — offer the most detailed economic postmortem yet of one of the largest immigration waves in modern U.S. history.

  • 在当前美国经济面临相反冲击(即净移民人数因移民政策收紧和执法力度加强而降至接近零或更低水平)的背景下,这项研究显得尤为重要。

• The new paper arrives as America's economy deals with the opposite shock: Net migration has since fallen to near zero or below amid tighter immigration policies and stepped-up enforcement. By the numbers:

数据说明:经济学家詹妮弗·亨特(Jennifer Hunt)、皮娅·奥雷尼乌斯(Pia Orrenius)和玛德琳·扎沃德尼(Madeline Zavodny)在论文中指出:

Roughly 6.5 million migrants entered the U.S. outside usual legal pathways from 2021 to 2024, equivalent to at least 2% of the U.S. population at the start of the period, economists Jennifer Hunt, Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny write in the paper.

2021年至2024年间,约有650万移民通过非正规渠道进入美国,这相当于该时期美国总人口的至少2%。

• The researchers estimate that each additional migrant added roughly 0.4 jobs over the period. The influx accounted for about 1.6 million additional jobs across the major metros they examined — or roughly 18% of employment gains from 2021 to 2024.

研究人员估计,每增加一名移民,就会创造约0.4个就业岗位;这些移民为所研究的主要大都市区带来了约160万个新增就业机会(占2021年至2024年间就业增长的约18%)。

• The researchers estimate that each additional migrant added roughly 0.4 jobs over the period. The influx accounted for about 1.6 million additional jobs across the major metros they examined — or roughly 18% of employment gains from 2021 to 2024. • The immigration surge also raised GDP in the average metro area by an estimated 1.5%, the paper says.

该研究还指出,移民潮使这些大都市区的GDP平均增长了1.5%。

Zoom in:

详细分析:研究人员表示,移民数量的急剧增加并未改变本土出生工人的就业率,反而使他们的工资在2021年至2024年间增长了约0.9%。

The researchers say the sharp rise in immigration left native-born workers' employment rates unchanged and raised their wages by an estimated 0.9% between 2021 and 2024. • But they estimate that the surge raised rents modestly as housing supply failed to keep pace with the additional population.

但他们也指出,由于住房供应未能跟上人口增长的速度,移民潮导致了房租的轻微上涨。

What they're saying:

专家观点:“令我惊讶的是,我们没有发现移民对本土工人产生更多负面影响,”达拉斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)的劳动经济学家奥雷尼乌斯在新闻发布会上说。

"I was surprised that we didn't find more negative effects on natives — in particular native workers," Orrenius, a labor economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, told reporters at a briefing. • Orrenius said one possible explanation is that immigrant and native-born workers complement each other rather than compete for the same jobs.

她认为,一个可能的解释是:移民工人和本土工人之间存在互补关系,而非在同一岗位上的竞争。

• Orrenius said one possible explanation is that immigrant and native-born workers complement each other rather than compete for the same jobs.

关键观点:“如果你雇佣了一名移民,就会将其与一名本地员工配对一起工作;这样一来,工作效率和生产力实际上会比不雇佣移民的情况更高。”

• "If you hire one immigrant, you pair it with a native, and you actually get improved efficiencies and better productivity than you would if you didn't have the immigrant." The intrigue: The immigration surge coincided with a time when the U.S. had an insatiable appetite for workers.

背后的故事:移民潮的出现,恰逢美国对劳动力需求极为旺盛的时期:

• The economy was roaring back from the pandemic and employers were struggling to fill jobs — particularly in industries like leisure and hospitality and construction.

经济正在从疫情中迅速复苏,雇主们难以填补职位空缺(尤其是在休闲、酒店服务和建筑等行业);

• The economy was roaring back from the pandemic and employers were struggling to fill jobs — particularly in industries like leisure and hospitality and construction.

“从经济角度来看,劳动力市场当时完全有能力吸纳大量移民工人,而且确实做到了这一点,”扎沃德尼(Zavodny)说道。

• "It was a really good time economically for the labor market to absorb a large influx of migrant workers, and it successfully did so," Zavodny said.

这股移民浪潮也成为了2024年总统竞选的热门话题。例如,副总统万斯(Vance)多次指出,移民潮加剧了住房 affordability crisis(即住房价格与人们收入之间的矛盾),因为数百万人竞相争夺有限的住房资源;

The wave of migrants helped propel immigration to the center of the 2024 presidential campaign. Vice President Vance has repeatedly argued for instance, that the influx worsened the housing affordability crisis by adding millions of people competing for a limited supply of homes.

然而,最新研究发现,移民潮对住房市场的影响虽然存在,但幅度相对较小:

• Yet the new research finds a measurable but relatively small housing effect from the migrant surge.

研究人员估计,从2021年到2024年,移民潮导致租金上涨了1.4%至1.6%;

• The authors estimate the surge raised rents by 1.4%-1.6% from 2021 to 2024.

扎沃德尼向记者透露,许多移民最初都住在临时庇护所、应急住房中,或者与亲友同住。

• Zavodny told reporters that many of the migrants were initially staying in shelters, emergency housing or with friends and family.