By David Fickling What could 2026 do to make the fossil fuel supply crisis emanating from the Persian Gulf just a little bit worse? How about a whole separate fossil fuel supply crisis on the other side of the world? That’s what the bone-dry weather brought by the current super-El Nino is incubating.

If there is a Saudi Arabia of coal, it’s almost certainly Indonesia. Roughly two-thirds of all the thermal coal shipped internationally for electricity generation originates there. Some 80% of that is mined in just two provinces on the island of Borneo. Getting all that carbon to port, in turn, depends on sending barges down a handful of rivers. Disruptions at those chokepoints can ripple through grids across Asia, threatening power cuts to factories supplying the world with everything from smartphones to sneakers.

Just as a run of dry summers has threatened the Rhine’s role as a logistics highway through the heart of Europe in recent years, Indonesia’s rivers are highly vulnerable to the warming climate that its coal exports stoke. As rainfall declines, water levels fall and shipping channels narrow, sometimes becoming impassable. Striking satellite imagery of the Barito River shows sandbanks swallowing more and more of its meandering course.

That’s already having effects. Barges are being forced to shrink their cargoes to avoid grounding in the shallow water, raising costs and slowing movements. Some miners have declared force majeure, a legal term meaning they’ve had to cancel shipments due to forces beyond their control. Export volumes in August were already the lowest in five years, and a local employers’ group estimated the disruption may affect about 3.9 million metric tons of production per month.

Borneo’s rivers are driven by the ebb and flow of the Indian Ocean monsoon, so it’s not unusual for them to suffer periods of low water as the dry season draws to an end. The current conditions are exceptional, though, with forecasts of rainfall through November as much as 80% below normal levels across the Indonesian archipelago. The wet season, which typically starts in October, won’t begin until November and will be shorter than usual, the government announced last week. In a worst case scenario, rainfall could be insufficient to recharge depleted rivers and push trade disruptions into next year: On the Mahakam River, Borneo’s most important coal export artery, droughts can last for 13 months.

The populations most exposed to this uncertainty have been sold a pup. For several years, the fossil fuel industry has promoted LNG and coal as the solution for countries in South and Southeast Asia facing rising electricity demands. Foreign governments have at times pushed this vision. The flagship regional energy-transition initiative of Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has funded studies into extending the life of coal and gas generators by pumping ammonia, hydrogen, or biomass into their furnaces.

The events of 2026 are knocking away the assumptions beneath that strategy one by one: That fossil fuels are more likely to support economic growth, though they’re costlier in cash terms alone, even before considering the additional burdens to health and wellbeing and climate change itself; That they’re more dependable and secure, an argument that only works if you ignore how much they’re dependent on a handful of bottlenecks in Hormuz, or the Red Sea, or Borneo’s rivers; That they’re quick to deploy, though coal generators take seven years to build and waiting lists for buying just a gas turbine stretch to five years these days.

This has implications well beyond the region. The center of gravity of the world’s supply chains is shifting away from China and toward South and Southeast Asia, with manufacturing foreign direct investment into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations members increasing by 147% in 2024 alone. Countries from Bangladesh to Vietnam are finding out how poor energy planning can force up costs and trim sales of the exported goods they’re counting on for economic growth. To run seamlessly, these emerging industrial hubs depend on uninterrupted supplies of electricity that doesn’t surge in price because of a war on the far side of the world or a sandbank emerging in the middle of a rainforest river.

Solar power can deliver electricity as dependable as the rise and fall of the sun, at costs the world has never seen before. Paired with batteries, it can keep running well into the night and still beat the cheapest fossil-fired power. An Indian power auction last month designed to mimic the hour-by-hour output of a coal generator was a case in point: 16 separate developers bid below the cost of new coal, and guaranteed they’d hold prices fixed for 25 years, something no fossil generator could ever promise.

Governments are taking notice. Gas-fired Thailand announced plans this month to increase its renewables share to as much as 89%, from 15% at present. That's not just a cleaner energy system. It’s a more secure one.

OPIN To contact the author of this story: at dfickling@bloomberg.net