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南华早报

摩根大通的杰米·戴蒙谈增长如何化解美中冲突及棘手的全球问题JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon on how growth can untangle US-China strife, thorny global issues

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杰米·戴蒙最近对香港的短暂访问遵循了类似的安排:他的日程安排中充满了与企业家及商业领袖的会面,这些会面的目的在于推动中国与全球市场的对接。

Jamie Dimon’s recent whirlwind visit to Hong Kong followed a similar script: a schedule packed with meetings involving the entrepreneurs and business leaders connecting China with global markets.

然而,他在全球性问题上的鲜明立场似乎让他的职业生涯超越了单纯的市场策略与摩根大通首席执行官的职责范围。

But it was his increasingly visible stance on global issues that appeared to extend his career beyond market strategy and financial industry leadership as CEO of JPMorgan Chase.

上周在香港期间,他对经济增长和世界事务的关注尤为引人注目;就在那之后,他乘坐私人飞机返回华盛顿,出席了在白宫举行的国宴,以欢迎习近平主席的到来。

His preoccupation with economic growth and world affairs drew particular attention in Hong Kong last week, shortly before boarding a private plane and jetting back to Washington for a state dinner at the White House to welcome President Xi Jinping.

“我最关心的问题是地缘政治——世界和平,”这位在华尔街主要银行任职时间最长的首席执行官周三对《南华早报》表示。

“My biggest concern is geopolitics – world peace,” Dimon, the longest-serving CEO of a major Wall Street bank, told the South China Morning Post on Wednesday.

他强调全球经济增长的观点与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特的观点一致,也与包括习近平在内的中国领导人的长期理念相呼应——他们始终认为“发展具有至高重要性”。这一立场为最近在摩根大通纽约总部举行的中美贸易谈判奠定了基础。

His emphasis on global economic growth also echoed US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s views and the decades-old philosophy of China’s leaders, including Xi, that “development is of overriding importance”, laying the groundwork for China-US trade talks that were recently held at the bank’s New York headquarters.

今年以来,全球市场经历了多次动荡:油价飙升、美国国债收益率上升、美联储为应对通胀而加息、债务负担加重,这些因素都引发了人们对新一轮重大金融危机的担忧。

Global markets have endured repeated panics this year, driven by surging oil prices, rising US Treasury yields, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase to fight inflation, and soaring debt – factors that have fuelled concerns about another major financial crisis.

世界经济和全球市场同时面临着诸多地缘政治挑战:2022年2月爆发的乌克兰战争、持续了七个月的美国对伊朗的军事行动,以及中美之间的贸易紧张关系;此外,关于人工智能技术的争议也日益激烈。

The world economy and global markets are also grappling with geopolitical conflicts – including the Ukraine war that began in February 2022 and the US-Israeli war on Iran that just crossed the seven-month mark – as well as persistent trade tensions between China and the United States, and increasingly louder warnings about artificial intelligence.

你必须时刻保持警惕、做好准备。因为从经济史来看,市场并不总是正确的。杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)是摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的首席执行官,他提出的核心财务策略——即低债务与股本比率、高流动性和大量现金储备(这种资产负债表结构被称为“堡垒型资产负债表”)——在危机时期常常被重新提及。最近,他对美国的“顽固性通胀”表示担忧:美国的通胀率已连续五年以上维持在2%以上。

The world economy and global markets are also grappling with geopolitical conflicts – including the Ukraine war that began in February 2022 and the US-Israeli war on Iran that just crossed the seven-month mark – as well as persistent trade tensions between China and the United States, and increasingly louder warnings about artificial intelligence. You always need to be prepared. Because if you look at economic history, the market isn’t always rightJamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase Dimon, whose signature financial strategy – a combination of low debt-to-equity ratios, high liquidity and large cash reserves known as the “fortress balance sheet” – often resurfaces in times of crisis, expressed concerns about “sticky inflation” in the US that has persistently hovered above 2 per cent for more than five years.

“如果你从事商业活动,你就应该考虑自己是否能够应对更高的利率和更宽的信用利差,”戴蒙在香港中环的摩根大通办公室说道,“那么,作为企业,你该如何管理风险呢?”

“If you are in business, you should be thinking about whether you can handle higher rates, higher credit spreads,” Dimon said, speaking from the JPMorgan office in Central district, the bustling financial centre of Hong Kong. “Just as a normal course, how do you manage risk?

不过戴蒙指出,当前的情况与2008年的金融危机有所不同:那次危机是由基于抵押贷款的金融工具的过度投机所引发的。如今,作为金融体系支柱的银行并未过度杠杆化,而且拥有更多的流动性;同时,美国的企业和消费者也同样没有过度杠杆化的现象。

However, Dimon noted that current conditions were “different” from the 2008 crisis, driven by excessive speculation on financial instruments backed by mortgage loans. Banks, the backbone of the financial system, are currently not overleveraged and have much more liquidity, while American corporations and consumers are not overleveraged either, he observed.

“最大的债务负担来自主权债务。因此,政府必须承担起财务责任。希望他们能在危机发生之前就意识到这一点。”政府数据显示,美国的国债规模在过去十年里翻了一番,上个月已超过40万亿美元。由于石油、粮食等商品价格的波动,资本成本正在上升;截至周一下午,10年期美国国债的收益率达到了5.234%,这是20多年来的最高水平。

“The highest debt is sovereign debt. So, governments need to be financially responsible. And hopefully, they will be before a crisis forces the issue.” Government data shows that US sovereign debt has doubled in a decade, topping US$40 trillion last month. The cost of capital is jumping as oil, grain and other shocks resonate, with the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury bills at 5.234 per cent as of Monday afternoon, the highest in over 20 years.

尽管戴蒙仍然认为美国是一个长期值得投资的国家,其经济依然“非常强大”,但人们对于资产多元化以及减少对美元依赖的讨论却日益增多。与此同时,中国政府也在加大吸引国际投资者的力度,并积极推动人民币的国际化使用。

Although Dimon maintains that the US remains a permanent investment destination, and that its economy is still “hugely powerful”, talk of diversification and de-dollarisation has accelerated. This is accompanied by Beijing’s growing efforts to lure international investors and push for global use of the yuan.

自3月以来,许多中央银行和机构投资者都改变了他们的投资策略:减少了美国国债的持有量,增加了黄金的购买,并开始分散对美元的依赖。即便是美国的盟友日本,也在3月至7月期间减持了总计1354亿美元的美国国债,降幅达到了10.9%。

Many central banks and institutional investors also altered their strategies since March, reducing US bill holdings, purchasing gold, and diversifying away from the US dollar. Even Japan, an American ally, trimmed a total of US$135.4 billion in US Treasuries from March to July – a 10.9 per cent drop.

尽管戴蒙承认当时的股价非常高、信用利差非常低,但他表示人们不应对市场波动感到惊讶:“市场并不总是正确的,”他说,“如今的情况确实很好,因此我们有理由感到高兴。”在戴蒙访问香港之前的几天里,摩根大通的纽约总部举行了一系列贸易谈判,中方代表包括副总理何立峰,美方代表则有贝森特(Bessent)和贸易代表杰米森·格里尔(Jamieson Greer)。

While acknowledging that stock prices were quite high and credit spreads were quite low, Dimon said people should never be surprised about market fluctuations. “The markets aren’t always right,” he said. “Things are very good today, and there’s reason for some happiness.” In the days preceding Dimon’s Hong Kong visit, JPMorgan Chase’s New York headquarters hosted a round of trade talks between Vice-Premier He Lifeng and his US negotiators, including Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

这些谈判的核心理念是政府与企业之间的合作以及对经济增长的共同关注——戴蒙在采访中多次强调这一点,他认为这是解决许多全球性问题的关键。

“The markets aren’t always right,” he said. “Things are very good today, and there’s reason for some happiness.” In the days preceding Dimon’s Hong Kong visit, JPMorgan Chase’s New York headquarters hosted a round of trade talks between Vice-Premier He Lifeng and his US negotiators, including Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

“贝森特部长前几天也提到过——她说得非常对:经济增长才是最好的解决办法,”戴蒙说,“因此,各国应该思考哪些政策能够最大化经济增长。”

Underpinning these discussions was Dimon’s notion of government-business collaboration and a shared focus on growth, which he mentioned repeatedly in his interview, considering them vital to tackling many global problems.

“你经常会看到政客们谈论增税或减税的问题。但在采取这些措施之前,我们为什么不先解决那些阻碍经济增长的因素呢?经济增长对所有公民都有好处,而不仅仅对企业有利。只有实现了经济增长,才能创造更多的就业机会和更高的工资水平。”戴蒙的这些观点与北京的立场惊人地相似:北京认为经济增长是实现民众福祉、社会稳定和解决债务问题的基础。

“Secretary Bessent mentioned the other day – which is dead right – growth is the best antidote,” Dimon said. “So, countries should be thinking about what policies will maximise growth. “You see a lot of politicians always speaking about raising taxes or cuts. Before you do that, why don’t we all fix the things that are inhibiting growth? Growth is good for all the citizens, not just good for business. When you have growth, you have more employment, more wages.” Such thoughts are strikingly similar to Beijing’s stance, which views economic growth as the foundation for well-being, social stability and debt resolution.

“我的观点是:在多个层面上,持续的沟通与互动才是最重要的,”戴蒙在谈到双边关系时强调说,并特别指出了高层会晤的重要性。“我很高兴双方能够进行交流与互动;我认为倾听对方的观点非常重要。”最近的谈判取得了一些成果:北京和华盛顿同意将长达近一年的贸易休战协议延长两个月,直至1月10日。根据双方的官方声明,这是双方首次就人工智能(AI)问题展开讨论。

“My view is: engagement is the best thing – at multiple levels and consistently,” Dimon said of bilateral relations, highlighting the importance of high-level meetings. “I’m glad that they are meeting and engaging. I think it’s important to hear each other out.” The latest talks yielded some results – Beijing and Washington agreed to extend a nearly year-long trade truce for two more months, until January 10. And for the first time, the two sides discussed AI, according to their official statements.

在周四的国宴之前,习近平主席和特朗普总统在向官员及美国顶尖企业高管(包括戴蒙)发表讲话时,都赞扬了双方过去的友谊,并淡化了当前的分歧。

“My view is: engagement is the best thing – at multiple levels and consistently,” Dimon said of bilateral relations, highlighting the importance of high-level meetings. “I’m glad that they are meeting and engaging. I think it’s important to hear each other out.” The latest talks yielded some results – Beijing and Washington agreed to extend a nearly year-long trade truce for two more months, until January 10. And for the first time, the two sides discussed AI, according to their official statements.

尽管在人工智能、生物技术等诸多领域仍存在竞争,戴蒙指出了两国在某些领域合作的可能性,例如共同致力于世界和平、核不扩散以及反恐工作。

Ahead of Thursday’s state dinner, in their speeches to officials and top American business executives – including Dimon – presidents Xi and Trump praised past friendships and downplayed current rivalries.

“我们应该时刻提醒自己:中国希望提升本国人民的生活水平,美国也同样希望如此,”他说。

While competition persists over AI, biotech and many other sectors, Dimon identified potential areas for cooperation between the two superpowers, such as working towards world peace, nuclear non-proliferation and counterterrorism.

尽管市场对于人工智能技术的快速应用存在争议,戴蒙认为这项技术的发展将从机器学习阶段逐步发展到大型语言模型阶段,最终实现通用人工智能(即具备与人类相当甚至超越人类认知能力的人工智能)。他强调,这项技术将彻底改变人们的生活和各个行业:“人工智能是真实存在的;我们已经在这一领域投入了13年的研究。目前,人工智能已被广泛应用于防止欺诈、市场营销、客户关系管理以及客服中心等领域。”

“We should keep reminding ourselves that China wants to lift up its people, America wants to lift up its people,” he noted. Despite market debate over the rapid deployment of AI, Dimon argued that the progression of the technology would move from machine learning to large language models and then, eventually, artificial general intelligence – thinking that matches or surpasses human cognitive ability.

“人工智能将拯救生命、减少交通事故,并推动药物研发和复合材料的发展。如果你的孩子出生了,他们或许能够活到100岁;我们或许再也不会患上过去那些常见的疾病。因此,我们应该为这一技术的进步感到欣慰。”不过他也指出,任何技术都可能带来负面影响,因此呼吁政府采取相应措施来帮助工人重新适应新的工作环境或接受再培训。总体而言,他对人工智能技术的未来前景持积极态度。

Dimon said the technology would transform lives and industries. “AI is real. We’ve been doing it for 13 years,” he said, citing its customer-oriented use to prevent fraud and to facilitate marketing, prospecting, design and call centres. “It’ll save lives, prevent car accidents and develop drugs and composite materials. If you have kids, they may live to 100. We may not have some of the diseases we were all afflicted with. So, yeah, you should applaud that.” As any technology carries potential downsides, he called for broad government actions to redeploy or retrain workers, but remained broadly positive on the technology’s future gains.

“我认为,人工智能在提高生产效率方面的潜力还有待进一步发挥。我们目前还不知道这些潜力何时能够得到完全实现,但我相信这将会带来巨大的积极影响。”戴蒙指出,人工智能确实会带来一些安全风险,因此需要增加在网络安全方面的投入;他特别提到了通过开源代码和互联网接入可能带来的威胁。

“I think AI’s productivity benefits are still some way down the road. We don’t yet know exactly when they’ll be fully realised, but I believe it will be a huge plus.” It does create real vulnerabilities and drives the need for increased spending on cyber protection, Dimon said, mentioning possible threats through open-source code and internet access.

“我的态度始终是:卷起袖子,开始行动吧,”他说,“我们并没有忽视这个问题。”

“Again, my attitude is: roll up your sleeves, get to work,” he said. “It’s not like we’re ignoring it.

“人工智能可能会带来一些干扰或混乱,但我不会花太多时间去争论这些。我的职责是为客户提供更好的服务。我们使用计算机、技术,未来也会使用人工智能——归根结底,我们的目标始终是为客户服务。人工智能只是帮助我们实现这一目标的另一种工具罢了。”戴蒙强调。

“It may cause some disruption. But I don’t spend much time debating it. My job is to do a better job for my customers. We use computers, we use technology, and we’ll use AI the same way. The north star is serving customers better. AI is just another tool to help us do that.” If you make it ideological – Democrats against Republicans – and make moral statements about what works, then you lose sight of the factsJamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase After spending more than two decades at the helm of one of the world’s most valuable banks, Dimon still maintains a sharp sense of global market risks and business deals. Increasingly, however, the 70-year-old multibillionaire has set his sights beyond bank profits and personal wealth towards some of the “big issues” facing the world.

“如果将人工智能的问题意识形态化(比如将其视为民主党与共和党之间的对立),或者对其进行道德层面的评判(比如争论哪种方式更‘正确’),那就偏离了事实的本质。”

“It may cause some disruption. But I don’t spend much time debating it. My job is to do a better job for my customers. We use computers, we use technology, and we’ll use AI the same way. The north star is serving customers better. AI is just another tool to help us do that.” If you make it ideological – Democrats against Republicans – and make moral statements about what works, then you lose sight of the factsJamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase After spending more than two decades at the helm of one of the world’s most valuable banks, Dimon still maintains a sharp sense of global market risks and business deals. Increasingly, however, the 70-year-old multibillionaire has set his sights beyond bank profits and personal wealth towards some of the “big issues” facing the world.

在领导这家全球最具价值的银行二十多年后,戴蒙依然对全球市场风险和商业交易有着敏锐的洞察力。不过,这位70岁的亿万富翁已经开始将目光投向那些更重要的“全球性问题”。

“It may cause some disruption. But I don’t spend much time debating it. My job is to do a better job for my customers. We use computers, we use technology, and we’ll use AI the same way. The north star is serving customers better. AI is just another tool to help us do that.” If you make it ideological – Democrats against Republicans – and make moral statements about what works, then you lose sight of the factsJamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase After spending more than two decades at the helm of one of the world’s most valuable banks, Dimon still maintains a sharp sense of global market risks and business deals. Increasingly, however, the 70-year-old multibillionaire has set his sights beyond bank profits and personal wealth towards some of the “big issues” facing the world.

“你知道,乌克兰战争非常可怕,它正在给欧洲带来许多麻烦,而且情况还在恶化。这显然影响了石油和粮食的价格;中东的局势(尤其是伊朗问题)也在影响石油市场。”戴蒙还鼓励年轻一代培养批判性思维能力和强烈的职业道德。

“You know, the war in Ukraine is terrible, and it’s causing a lot of issues in Europe now,” he said. “And it’s getting worse. Obviously, that affects oil and grain prices. And now you have the war in the Middle East – Iran – and that’s also affecting oil.” He is also keen on advising younger generations to develop critical-thinking skills and a strong work ethic.

“你若没有强烈的好奇心、开放的心态,也不自问‘事情真的是这样运作的吗?’,就谈不上批判性思维,”他说,并补充道:“要学习,学习,再学习,不断学习,持续学习。”

“You can’t have critical thinking without deep curiosity and an open mind and asking yourself, ‘Does this really work that way?’” he said, adding: “And learn, learn, learn, learn, learn.”

当被问及个人目标时,这位在华尔街和华盛顿都备受尊敬的商业偶像戴蒙大笑起来。“对我来说,立个人发展目标有点太晚了,”他半开玩笑地说,随即又认真地补充道:“我想变得更聪明、更优秀,帮助他人,帮助提升这个世界。”在接受采访前的摩根大通全员大会上,这位首席执行官谈及了全球动荡。稍后,在接受《南华早报》采访时,他对美国经济“充满活力、健康、创新”表示自豪,同时也指出了祖国的一些短板。

When asked about any personal goals he may have, Dimon, who is already a business icon respected across Wall Street and Washington, started laughing. “It’s getting a little late for me to have personal-development goals,” he quipped, before quickly adding: “I want to be smarter and better and help people, and help lift up the world.” At a JPMorgan town hall meeting immediately before the interview, the CEO touched on global chaos. Later, with the SCMP, he expressed pride in the “vibrant, healthy, innovative” US economy while also flagging some of his home country’s shortcomings.

“在美国,有些事情我们做得实在太烂了,”戴蒙说。“无论是民主党还是共和党的政策,我们在内城问题上都做得很糟糕;我们的学校毕业生数量远远不够。解决这个问题的唯一途径是承认它,然后才能着手解决。

“In America, there are things we have done really badly,” Dimon said. “And whether it’s Democrat or Republican policies, we’ve done a bad job for inner cities; our schools aren’t graduating enough kids. The only way you fix that is to acknowledge it, and then you can attack it.

“但如果你把问题意识形态化——民主党对抗共和党——并对什么有效发表道德宣言,你就会忽视事实。有时我们的政策不起作用,我们必须愿意承认它们不起作用。”关于如何帮助改变现状的提问,戴蒙避而不谈个人追求,转而聚焦于公司战略。

“But, if you make it ideological – Democrats against Republicans – and make moral statements about what works, then you lose sight of the facts. Sometimes our policies don’t work, and we have to be willing to say they don’t work.” Regarding questions about how he would help change the situation, Dimon shied away from personal pursuits, focusing instead on his company’s strategy.

“我告诉大家,在摩根大通,我们希望能帮助城市、州、学校、医院、企业、政府,”他说。“我们为所有开发银行提供银行服务,也为美国政府提供银行服务。“这就是我们存在的意义。”文/邓飞

“I tell people that at JPMorgan, we hope we help cities, states, schools, hospitals, companies, governments,” he said. “We bank all the development banks, we bank the United States government. “And that’s what we’re there for.” By Frank Tang