浮上明是瑞典国防与安全公司萨博科技日本公司的国家经理兼代表董事。
Akira Ukaji is country manager and representative director of Swedish defense and security company Saab Technologies Japan.
去年7月的一个夜晚，佐贺县玄海核电站上空出现三盏移动的灯光。电力运营商怀疑是无人机，随即通报监管部门和警方。数月后，调查人员称这些灯光可能来自飞机。在日本最敏感的设施之一上空，无人能迅速判明天空中究竟是什么。
One night in July last year, three lights were seen moving over the Genkai nuclear power plant in Saga prefecture. The utility operator suspected drones and alerted regulators and police. Months later, investigators said the lights may have come from an aircraft after all. At one of Japan's most sensitive sites, nobody could quickly tell what was in the sky.
事态升级。今年6月，一架中国侦察打击一体无人机飞近冲绳，日本战斗机紧急升空拦截。随后在9月2日，陆上自卫队首次在日本向记者展示了一款小型无人机，其任务不仅是侦察，还能打击来袭敌人。
The stakes have grown. In June this year, a Chinese spy-and-strike drone flew near Okinawa and Japanese fighter jets scrambled to meet it. Then on Sept 2., the Ground Self-Defense Force (SDF) showed for the first time to reporters in Japan a small drone built to strike incoming enemies not just watch them.
防卫大臣小泉进次郎当天表示：“我切实感到危机感，来自朝鲜的无人机和无人驾驶飞机并非不切实际。”
"I have a real sense of crisis that drones and unmanned aircraft coming from North Korea are not unrealistic," Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said the same day.
日本政府正加快应对步伐。防卫省提交了创纪录的8.9万亿日元（约合570亿美元）预算申请，用于明年4月开始的新财年，核心聚焦无人机与人工智能。首相高市早苗已指示自卫队行动更快，要求在年底前重写日本核心安全战略之前，迅速采用人工智能和无人系统。曾经主要局限于防卫业界刊物的话题，如今已登上日间电视节目，这标志着该议题进入寻常百姓家的速度之快。然而，我们真的理解什么是防空吗？
The Japanese government is moving to match the moment. The Defense Ministry has submitted a record 8.9 trillion yen ($57 billion) budget request for the year starting next April with drones and artificial intelligence at its center. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has told the Self-Defense Forces to move even faster, calling for the swift adoption of AI and unmanned systems ahead of a rewrite of Japan's core security strategy by year-end. What was once a subject mainly for defense trade publications is now covered on daytime television, a sign of how quickly this issue has entered ordinary households. However, do we really understand what air defense means?
任何防空系统都要完成三项任务：发现威胁、决定应对措施、采取行动。雷达和摄像头是眼睛。指挥控制系统——即C2系统——是负责决策的大脑。拦截器、干扰机和火炮是手脚。没有眼睛和大脑的拦截器，就像蒙着眼睛的守门员。发现最难：小型无人机低空慢飞，在雷达上可能像鸟或海浪。能否在几秒钟内将该图像传递给决策者，决定了拦截器是否获得公平的机会。
Any air defense does three jobs: see a threat, decide what to do, and act. Radars and cameras are the eyes. A command-and-control system -- known as a C2 system -- is the brain that decides. Interceptors, jammers and guns are the hands. An interceptor without eyes and a brain is like a blindfolded goalkeeper. Seeing is hardest: A small drone flies low and slow, and on radar it can look like a bird or a wave. Getting that picture to a decision-maker in seconds decides whether an interceptor gets a fair chance.
日本目前正在采购更多“手脚”；它需要连接它们的“神经系统”以及指引它们的“判断力”。
Japan is now buying more hands; it needs the nervous system that connects them and the judgment that guides it.
然后是成本问题。一架攻击型无人机可能只需几百美元；而击落它的导弹可能要花费一百万美元甚至更多。仅围绕昂贵拦截器构建的防空体系，会在攻击者用完无人机之前先耗尽资金。乌克兰表明，廉价无人机很少单架来袭，而是成群结队。这就是为什么北约盟友在7月同意在五年内投入超过400亿美元，用于分层、成本匹配的反无人机防御。
Then there is the cost issue. A strike drone can cost a few hundred dollars; a missile that shoots it down can cost a million or more. A defense built only around expensive interceptors will run out of money before an attacker runs out of drones. Ukraine has shown that cheap drones rarely come one at a time. They come in waves. That is why NATO allies agreed in July to spend more than $40 billion over five years on layered, cost-matched counter-drone defenses.
2025年11月21日，瑞典卡尔斯堡，瑞典陆军第31游骑兵营的一名士兵在训练演示中操作无人机。
A soldier from the Swedish Army's 31st Ranger Battalion operates a drone during a training demonstration in Karlsborg, Sweden, on Nov. 21, 2025.
日本的地理条件增加了另一个难题。其海岸线长达3000多公里，必须同时保卫基地、港口、发电厂和偏远岛屿。部队需要在任何情况下都能机动并保持联络。
Japan's geography adds another problem. Its coastlines stretch more than 3,000 kilometers, and it must defend bases, ports, power plants and remote islands all at once. Units need to move and stay connected under any circumstances.
最务实的答案不是孤注一掷押注单一供应商，而是就通用技术规则达成共识，使来自不同制造商（无论日资还是外资）的传感器和部件能作为一个系统协同工作。试想共享充电标准：它让人们更换单个设备时，无需丢弃拥有的所有其他设备。国防领域要求更高，但这一逻辑依然适用。日本的采购机构人手紧张，在人员有限、面临快速且不得出错的支出压力下同时推进多个新项目，这让人倾向于依赖单一可信赖的供应商。
The most practical answer is not to bet everything on one supplier, but to agree on common technical rules so sensors and parts from different makers, Japanese or foreign, can work as one system. Think of a shared charging standard: it lets people replace one device without throwing out every other one they own. Defense is more demanding, but the logic holds. Japan's procurement agencies are stretched thin, running many new programs with limited staff and pressure to spend fast without error, which makes leaning on one trusted vendor tempting.
但漫长消耗战会迅速损耗装备，没有任何一家公司能供应日本所需的一切。在危机前就达成的共享标准，能让日本调用国内外响应最快的任何有能力供应商。
But a long, grinding fight consumes equipment fast and no single company can supply everything Japan will need. Shared standards, agreed before a crisis, let Japan call on whichever capable supplier at home or abroad responds fastest.
英国提供了一个可行范例。其国防部发布了通用技术标准，使不同制造商的传感器和决策软件能协同工作，并已在北约试验中用多家供应商的装备完成测试。瑞典空军在84天内建成完整的反无人机系统，通过开放接口连接现有雷达、轻量化指挥系统和武器，并于2025年部署以协助保护波兰的一个北约后勤枢纽。这两个例子都非推销说辞；它们都表明，基于开放标准的集成能将年单位的周期压缩至月单位。
Britain offers one working model. Its Defense Ministry has published a common technical standard that lets sensors and decision-making software from different makers work together, already tested with equipment from several suppliers in NATO trials. The Swedish Air Force built a complete counter-drone system in 84 days by connecting an existing radar, a lightweight command system and weapons through open interfaces, then deployed it in 2025 to help protect a NATO logistics hub in Poland. Neither example is a sales pitch; both show integration on an open standard can turn years into months.
日本坚持本土建设是正确的。依赖遥远工厂补给的防务体系，在最需要的时候最脆弱。一种自然的分工正在形成：三菱电机、NEC等企业在传感器和指挥系统方面领先，而Terra Drone等新进入者（已被日本装备厅选中）负责构建执行端。外国合作伙伴应作为集成商与日本产业并肩合作，而非取而代之。
Japan is right to insist on building at home. A defense that depends on resupply from distant factories is weakest when it is needed most. A natural division of labor is forming: Companies such as Mitsubishi Electric and NEC lead in sensors and command systems, while newcomers such as Terra Drone, already chosen by Japan's acquisition agency, build the hands. Foreign partners belong here as integrators alongside Japanese industry, not as substitutes for it.
日本反无人机计划的真正考验，不在于首架拦截机能多快抵达，而在于不同厂商生产的传感器与武器能否共享同一幅态势图。
The real test of Japan's counter-drone program will not be how fast the first interceptor arrives. It is whether sensors and weapons from different makers can share one picture.
日本已证明其采购速度很快。现在更艰巨的任务是同样快速地实现集成、同样审慎地进行管控、同样清晰地加以说明。
Japan has shown it can buy quickly. The harder task now is to integrate just as quickly, govern it just as carefully and explain it just as clearly.
根据2025年内阁府的一项调查，45%的受访者认为自卫队的“规模与能力应当加强”，而2026年的多项民调显示，约50%至60%的受访者认为应在日本宪法中明文规定自卫队。然而，超过60%的受访者认为，宪法第九条放弃以战争手段解决争端，意味着防卫费仅用于保护国民与领土，而非向海外投射力量。
According to a 2025 Cabinet Office survey, 45% of respondents believed that the size and capabilities of the Self-Defense Forces "should be strengthened," and multiple polls in 2026 show that roughly 50% to 60% of respondents think the SDF should be explicitly stated in the Japanese Constitution. However, more than 60% of respondents think the constitution's Article 9, renouncing war as a means to settle disputes, means defense spending exists only to protect the nation's people and territory, not to project power abroad.
身为首相，高市早苗曾表示，自卫队的活动“离不开国民的理解与合作”。一个旨在保护公众的制度，应当能够辨别情况、追究人员责任，并留下日后可供核查的记录。
As prime minister, Takaichi has said the SDF's activities "cannot happen without the understanding and cooperation of the public." A system meant to protect the public should tell the difference, hold a human accountable and leave a record that can be checked later.
做对了这一点，未来无论采购国产还是外国装备，都能让盾牌更坚固；做错了，日本将拥有许多优秀的零部件，却依然缺乏一种公众能够理解并信任的防卫体系。
Get that right, and every future purchase, foreign or domestic, makes the shield stronger. Get it wrong, and Japan will own many excellent parts and still lack a defense the public understands and trusts.