迈克尔·伯里正在提前其对人工智能繁荣前景的看空论点的时间表。
Michael Burry is moving up the timeline for his bearish thesis on the fate of the artificial intelligence boom.
这位因在2007-2009年全球金融危机前大举做空美国房地产市场而成名的投资者表示，他正将关键AI股票的空头头寸转为看跌期权，以在更短的时间范围内获得更具成本效益的杠杆。
The investor, famous for his big short on the U.S. housing market prior to the global financial crisis of 2007 – 2009, is switching to put options from short positions on key AI stocks, giving him more cost-effective leverage over a shorter time horizon, he said.
“从根本上说，我正在提前时间表，”伯里在周一的投资通讯中写道。“因此，我希望在空头头寸中获得更多杠杆。更好的时间表让杠杆更容易接受。没有什么比期权更能代表杠杆了，在本例中是看跌期权，由于VIX等波动率指标异常低位，这些期权相对便宜。”他表示，部分调整旨在降低税务负担，但大部分是因为他认为“AI泡沫可能比预期更早破裂。”伯里新的以看跌期权为主的头寸暗示，AI交易可能在明年夏天发生逆转。
"Fundamentally, I am moving timelines up," Burry wrote in his Monday investment newsletter. "As such, I want more leverage in my short positions. Better timelines make leverage more palatable. Nothing says leverage like options, in this case put options, which are relatively cheap due to exceptionally tight volatility measures such as the VIX." Some of his moves were intended to reduce his tax liability, he said, but most of it was because he thinks "the bubble in AI may burst sooner than later." Burry's new put-heavy positions suggest the AI trade could flip by next summer.
他将美光科技的空头头寸换为6月到期、行权价500美元区间的看跌期权。将Nebius的空头头寸换为6月到期、“两位数行权价”区间的看跌期权。并将SOXX iShares半导体ETF的空头头寸替换为2027年9月到期、行权价在“400美元低位”区间的看跌期权。他还“替换并展期了Palantir的空头和看跌期权头寸，转为规模扩大的看跌期权头寸”，主要集中在2027年9月到期、行权价在“100美元低位”区间。
He swapped his Micron short with puts at a June expiration date and a $500 strike price range. He swapped his Nebius short with puts at the June expiration in the "double digit strike price" range. And he replaced his SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF short position with September 2027 puts "in the low $400s." He also "replaced and rolled the Palantir short and put position into an enlarged put position" centered at a September 2027 expiration in the low $100s.
伯里引用了Ares Management的最新研究，该研究强调了依赖AI领域未经验证收入的不稳定性，并指出这些收入由要求苛刻的法律协议构建。“只需一个AI收入令支撑其资本支出的承销商失望的季度。在这种情况下，少数几个董事会（本就倾向于将资本重新部署至信念最强的押注上）只需认定最高信念押注已发生转移。法律文件已预设了这一决策，”Ares报告称。伯里的最新动向暗示他对AI交易的看空情绪日益浓厚。
Burry cited recent research from Ares Management that emphasized the precarity of relying on unproven revenues in the AI space, structured with demanding legal agreements "It would take only a season in which AI revenue disappoints the capital expenditure underwriting it. In that scenario, a handful of boards, predisposed to redeploy capital toward the highest-conviction bet, would simply need to conclude that the highest-conviction bet has shifted. The legal documents contemplate that decision," the Ares report says. Burry's latest moves imply he is growing increasingly bearish on the AI trade.
本月初，他增加了对美光科技、Nebius和SOXX的做空头寸。
Earlier this month he had increased his shorts on Micron, Nebius and the SOXX.
他引用了宏碁CEO陈俊圣的言论，后者向台湾媒体表示，由于中国产能不断增加，存储芯片行业的周期性波动即将回归。"怎么可能持续短缺？中国的产能一直在持续增加，绝对不存在短缺问题。合同价格目前在高位波动，有些上涨，有些下跌，"陈俊圣被引述说道。
He cited Acer CEO Jason Chen, who told a Taiwanese media outlet that cyclicality was due to return to the memory chip sector due to increasing Chinese production capacity. "How could there be a continuous shortage? China's production capacity has been consistently increasing, and there is absolutely no shortage issue. Contract prices are currently fluctuating at a high level, with some prices going up and others down," CEO Jason Chen was quoted as saying.
伯里今年已看空一段时间，但股市持续攀升至新高。伯里在5月表示，股市"感觉像1999-2000年泡沫的最后几个月。"纳斯达克综合指数上周收于历史新高。
Burry has been bearish for a while this year, but stocks have continued to march to new highs. Burry said in May that equities were "feeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble." The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record last week.
但许多科技股仍远低于其高点。美光科技较历史高点下跌16%，而Palantir较历史高点下跌约10%。
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But many tech shares are still well off their highs. Micron is 16% below its record level, while Palantir is about 10% below its all-time high. Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.