作者：Tracy Withers新西兰政府将带着一份略显乐观的财政账目迎接11月的大选，得益于经济复苏和通胀上升，政府收入有所增加，国家预算赤字也随之收窄。
By Tracy Withers The New Zealand government will contest November’s election with a slightly less gloomy set of books as a recovering economy and higher inflation boost revenue and narrows the nation’s budget deficit.
根据惠灵顿周二发布的《选前经济与财政更新》报告，财政部的新预测显示，截至2027年6月的财年，运营预算赤字将为68亿新西兰元（约合40亿美元）。这一数字低于5月份预测的114亿新西兰元。
The operating budget will be NZ$6.8 billion ($4 billion) in the year through June 2027, according to new Treasury Department forecasts released Tuesday in Wellington as part of Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update. That’s less than the NZ$11.4 billion shortfall estimated in May.
然而，报告显示，由于经济复苏依然缓慢，且养老金和医疗成本持续攀升，预算要到2029年才能恢复盈余。本月公布的官方数据显示，截至2026年6月的12个月内，年均增长率为1.7%，好于5月预算案中预测的1.2%。财政部周二预测，到2027年6月，经济增长率将回升至2.3%。
Still, the budget won’t return to surplus until 2029 as the economic recovery remains modest and costs for pensions and health continue to escalate, the report showed. Official data this month showed annual average growth was 1.7% in the 12 months through June 2026 – better than the 1.2% projected in the May Budget. Treasury Tuesday forecast growth picking up to 2.3% by June 2027.
中右翼政府此前应对了一系列冲击，包括2024年的深度衰退、美国关税政策的不确定性以及伊朗战争，这些因素阻碍了其刺激就业和更快缩减预算赤字的雄心。不断上涨的生活成本和低迷的房地产市场，进一步削弱了政府作为比主要反对党更优秀的经济管理者的说服力，使得11月7日的大选结果难以预料。
The center-right government has battled a series of shocks including a deep recession in 2024, uncertainty over US tariff policies and the Iran war, which has derailed its ambition to stimulate hiring and narrow the budget deficit more quickly. The soaring cost of living and a moribund housing market have further eroded the government’s pitch to be a superior economic manager than the main opposition, leaving the Nov. 7 election too close to call.
周一公布的一项“1News Verian”民调显示，执政的国家党支持率降至28%，这意味着目前的执政联盟将无法在议会中获得多数席位。主要反对党工党的支持率也为28%，但该党有望在复苏的绿党和新兴的机会党的支持下组建政府。
Support for the governing National Party dropped to 28% in a 1News Verian poll published Monday, meaning the current coalition wouldn’t have a majority in parliament. The main opposition Labour Party is also on 28% but there is a path for it to be able to govern with support from the resurgent Greens and the emerging Opportunity party.
财政部长尼古拉·威利斯（Nicola Willis）今年早些时候宣布，计划在未来四年内削减数千个公共部门职位，这是其改善财政状况的最新尝试。此前，信用评级机构曾警告称，新西兰的主权信用评级可能会被下调。
Finance Minister Nicola Willis earlier this year announced plans to axe thousands of public sector jobs over the next four years in the latest attempts to improve the finances. That came after credit ratings companies warned New Zealand’s sovereign rating could be downgraded.
“这些数据确实为人们带来了乐观的理由，”威利斯周二对记者们表示。“经济表现优于预期。尽管过去几年对许多企业来说都是艰难的时期，但它们在全球性事件面前展现出了惊人的韧性。”威利斯指出，虽然预算赤字比之前预测的要小，但在竞选活动中仍没有增加新的开支或做出政策承诺的空间。
“These numbers give real grounds for optimism,” Willis told reporters Tuesday. “The economy performed better than expected. While the last few years have been a struggle for many firms, they have shown remarkable resilience in the face of global events.”While the budget deficit is narrower than previously projected, there is no scope for lavish new spending or policy promises in the election campaign, Willis said.
“我们不能把目前的财政状况视为可以随意挥霍资金的‘绿灯’，”她强调。“新西兰人从惨痛的经验中明白：情况随时可能发生变化，全球性的不稳定因素也不会消失。”财政部预计，经济复苏将主要依赖于强劲的出口表现和移民数量的回升。然而，5月份预算中预测的房价回升已不再被看好；预计到2027年6月，房价仅会上涨0.6%。
“A stronger fiscal position cannot be taken for granted and treated as a green light to open the check book,” she said. “Kiwis know from bitter experience that things can always change and global instability is not going away.”The Treasury expects the economic recovery will be anchored by a strong export performance and a recovery in immigration. However, the recovery in house prices that was predicted in the May budget is no longer expected, with values projected to rise just 0.6% in the 12 months through June 2027.
就业情况预计将有所改善，失业率将从今年的5.6%下降到2027年中的5.2%，从而支持家庭收入和消费。
Employment is expected to rebound, with the jobless rate dropping to 5.2% by mid-2027 from 5.6% this year, supporting household incomes and spending.
不过，经济前景仍面临下行风险：财政部表示，油价高于报告中的预期；同时，也无法确定移民数量是否会回升，也无法确定劳动生产率是否会提高。此外，全球债券收益率的上升将增加国家的债务融资成本，可能会占用更多财政收入，从而减少可用于公共服务和新项目的资金。
The risks to the economic outlook are to the downside. The Treasury said oil prices are higher than it assumed in the report and there is no certainty immigration will recover or that labor productivity will lift. Higher global bond yields will also increase finance costs on the nation’s debt, and could take up a larger share of revenue, reducing the funds available for core services and new projects.
截至2026年6月的12个月内，预算赤字（即不包括国有企业ACC的收益和支出后的净收支）比预期少了约330万新西兰元。预计到2027-28年度，OBEGALx的赤字将缩小至8.34亿新西兰元，并在2029年恢复到40亿新西兰元的盈余水平（此前预计为26亿新西兰元）。
The budget deficit – the operating balance before gains and losses excluding revenue and spending by state-owned accident insurer ACC, or OBEGALx – was around NZ$3.3 million smaller than expected in the 12 months through June 2006. OBEGALx is expected to narrow to NZ$834 million in 2027-28 and return to a surplus of NZ$4 billion in 2029 — previously expected to be NZ$2.6 billion.
赤字收窄意味着债务增速放缓。到2027年6月，核心政府债务净额将增至2230亿新西兰元，到2030年将升至2330亿新西兰元。不过，这仍低于5月预测的2460亿新西兰元。
The narrowing deficits imply slower increases in debt. Net core Crown debt will be NZ$223 billion by June 2027 and climb to NZ$233 billion by 2030. Still, that’s less than the NZ$246 billion projected in May.
债务占经济总量的比重将在2028年达到GDP的43.9%，低于此前预测的46.1%。到2031年，这一比重将降至GDP的40%以下。
As a share of the economy, debt will peak at 43.9% of GDP in 2028, lower than the 46.1% previously projected. It will fall below 40% of GDP by 2031.
债务规模较低意味着未来四年该国将少发行150亿新西兰元的债券。
The lower level of debt means the nation will offer NZ$15 billion fewer bonds over the four years.