美国金融巨头花旗集团建议投资者买入30年期中国国债，预计经济持续疲弱以及超长期限债券供应减少将提升对这类证券的需求。中国30年期国债成为焦点：据彭博报道，花旗已建立30年期中国国债的多头头寸，建仓收益率为2.088%，目标收益率为1.80%。花旗分析师陈文涵和罗希特·加格表示，周一该期限国债的收益率在2.1%左右。
US financial giant Citigroup Inc. is recommending that investors acquire 30-year Chinese government bonds, anticipating that persistent economic weakness and diminishing availability of extended-maturity debt will enhance demand for these securities. China's 30-Year Bond In Focus According to a Bloomberg report, the institution has established a long position in 30-year Chinese government bonds at a yield of 2.088%, targeting a yield of 1.80%, as noted by Citi analysts Wenhan Chen and Rohit Garg. On Monday, yields for this maturity were trading near 2.1%.As per the report, this optimistic assessment reflects how China's bond market is diverging from the broader global fixed-income decline, where elevated global inflation has driven yields higher across major developed economies.
报告称，这一乐观判断反映出中国债券市场正在与全球固定收益市场的普遍走弱趋势背离；全球通胀高企已推动主要发达经济体的收益率上升。全球央行应对持续通胀压力之际，中国信贷扩张乏力和国内消费疲软继续限制国内收益率上行。在债券发行方面，花旗指出，2026年计划发行的1.3万亿元超长期特别国债已完成约90%的发行，剩余部分预计将于10月发行完毕。
While global central banks address persistent inflationary pressures, China's subdued credit expansion and weak domestic consumption continue to constrain domestic yields. Regarding debt issuance, Citi noted that China has already distributed approximately 90% of its intended 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds scheduled for 2026, with the balance expected to conclude in October.
9月29日值得关注的股票：IRFC、NCC、Clean Max等。花旗还预计，常规长期限债券发行将在第四季度恢复，但预计发行规模将明显低于往年超长期特别国债的发行量。10年期国债收益率将下行：花旗表示，北京近期推出的3600亿元重大金融机构注资计划将为超长期限债券需求提供额外支撑。花旗预计，在信贷需求受限、抑制收益率上行压力的情况下，中国10年期国债收益率将逐步降至1.60%左右，而央行持续购债将为债券市场提供结构性支撑。
Stocks to watch for September 29: IRFC, NCC, Clean Max and moreCiti also anticipates that conventional longer-maturity bond offerings will resume in the fourth quarter, though it projects these issuance levels will be substantially lower than the ultra-long special treasury bond volumes observed in preceding years.10-Year Yields To Decline Demand for extended-maturity bonds should receive additional support from Beijing's recent 360 billion yuan recapitalisation initiative for major financial institutions, according to Citi. The institution projects that China's 10-year yields will gradually decline toward 1.60% as constrained credit demand limits upward yield pressure, while continuous central bank bond acquisitions furnish structural reinforcement for the debt market.
10年期国债收益率周一约为1.67%。花旗预计，10年期和30年期证券之间的收益率差目前处于其三年移动平均线的高位，未来将会收窄。
The 10-year yield was approximately 1.67% on Monday. Citi anticipates that the yield differential between 10- and 30-year securities, presently positioned at the elevated end of its three-year moving average, will narrow.