作者：Grace Sihombing印度尼西亚议会批准了2027年国家预算，目标是将经济增长率提升至6%，这将是十多年来的最快增速。印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比延多（Prabowo Subianto）正寻求在保持财政赤字在法定限额内的同时，加速经济发展。
By Grace Sihombing Indonesia’s parliament approved a 2027 state budget targeting 6% economic growth, the fastest pace in more than a decade, as President Prabowo Subianto seeks to accelerate the economy while keeping the fiscal deficit within legal limits.
议员们在周二的全体会议上通过了该预算案，将赤字设定为国内生产总值（GDP）的2.4%，即671.2万亿印尼盾（约合373亿美元）。相比之下，2026年的赤字率预计为2.85%。国家支出定为4106.3万亿印尼盾，收入为3435.1万亿印尼盾。
Lawmakers passed the budget into law at a plenary meeting on Tuesday, setting the deficit at 2.4% of gross domestic product, or 671.2 trillion rupiah ($37.3 billion). That compares with a shortfall projected at 2.85% of GDP in 2026. State spending is set at 4,106.3 trillion rupiah against revenue of 3,435.1 trillion rupiah.
6%的增长目标是自2012年以来的最高水平，对于这个东南亚最大经济体而言，这将标志着显著的提速，并远超今年预算中5.4%的增长预期。政府表示，要实现这一目标，需要包括私营部门和主权财富基金Danantara在内的投资进一步加速。
The 6% expansion target, the highest since 2012, would mark a significant acceleration for Southeast Asia’s biggest economy and far exceeds the 5.4% growth assumption in this year’s budget. The government has said faster investment, including from the private sector and sovereign wealth fund Danantara, will be needed to achieve the goal.
财政部副部长苏阿哈西尔·纳扎拉（Suahasil Nazara）在全体听证会上表示：“2027年国家预算架构旨在同时满足两个需求：应对全球不确定性，并在不牺牲财政可持续性的前提下，加速国家优先发展议程。”
“The 2027 state budget architecture is designed to address two needs simultaneously: responding to global uncertainty and accelerating the national development priority agenda without sacrificing fiscal sustainability,” Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara said during the plenary hearing.
获批的预算案对投资者信心构成了一次关键考验，市场正在评估雅加达是否能够在不突破该国GDP 3%这一严格赤字上限的情况下，真正实现普拉博沃激进的增长议程。尽管议员们正在权衡对《国家财政法》进行长期修订，但金融分析师们正密切关注政府将如何坚定地捍卫其历史性的财政护栏，以应对这些新的支出现实。
The approved budget presents a crucial test for investor confidence, as markets gauge whether Jakarta can actually deliver on Prabowo’s aggressive growth agenda without breaching the nation’s strict 3%-of-GDP deficit ceiling. While lawmakers weigh long-term revisions to the State Finance Law, financial analysts are closely monitoring how firmly the government will defend its historical fiscal guardrails against these new spending realities.
议会预算委员会主席赛义德·阿卜杜拉（Said Abdullah）表示，政府必须专注于促进高附加值出口并吸引更多投资，部分途径是通过改善贸易治理和加速工业化。他说：“因为仅靠国家预算是不可能实现6%的经济增长的。”
The government must focus on boosting value-added exports and attracting higher investment, partly by improving trade governance and accelerating industrialization, said Said Abdullah, chair of the parliamentary budget committee. “Because it is impossible to achieve 6% economic growth relying solely on the state budget,” he said.
苏阿哈西尔表示，政府将继续依据现行法律运作，并严格遵守财政赤字限制。他还指出，关于修改相关法规的讨论早已存在，应当以建设性的方式进行。
Suahasil has said the government will continue to operate under existing law and adhere to the deficit limit, adding that discussions about changing the rule have long existed and should be conducted constructively.
2027年预算中的一些假设可能已经面临挑战：政府预计原油平均价格为每桶75美元，远低于近期因地缘政治紧张局势加剧而突破100美元的国际布伦特原油价格。同时，预算中设定的美元兑印尼卢比平均汇率为17,500卢比，而当地货币正面临新的抛售压力，汇率已徘徊在具有心理意义的18,000卢比临界点附近。
Some of the 2027 budget’s assumptions may already prove challenging. The government anticipates an average crude oil price of $75 a barrel, sitting well below international Brent benchmarks that have recently traded above $100 amid intensifying geopolitical friction. Similarly, the targeted average exchange rate of 17,500 rupiah per dollar arrives as the local currency faces renewed selling pressure, hovering precariously close to the psychologically important 18,000 threshold.
该预算还假设平均通胀率为2.5%，以及10年期政府债券的收益率为6.9%。政府计划将能源补贴金额定为261.5万亿卢比（低于最初的预算），并向地方政府转移735万亿卢比。明年的净债券发行规模预计为833.7万亿卢比，债务利息支出则为650.3万亿卢比。
The budget also assumes average inflation at 2.5% and a 6.9% yield on 10-year government bonds. It sets energy subsidies at 261.5 trillion rupiah, lower than initially planned, and transfers to local governments at 735 trillion rupiah. Next year’s net bond issuance is planned at 833.7 trillion rupiah and debt-interest spending at 650.3 trillion rupiah.