爱荷华州正处于一场农业危机的边缘，这场危机可能会摧毁该州的农业基础，并对共和党在中期选举中的竞选前景造成严重影响，共和党战略专家们对此表示认同。
Iowa is on the verge of a farm crisis that threatens to wreck the agricultural heart of the state and hurt the fortunes of Republicans at the top of the midterm ticket, GOP strategists acknowledge. Why it matters:
为何这很重要：民主党在11月有可能在多个原本属于共和党的州赢得选举。然而，特朗普政府的政策给农民（尤其是种植玉米的农民）带来了严重的经济困境，使得爱荷华州显得尤为脆弱。
Democrats could win in several once-reliably Republican states in November, but President Trump 's policies have caused such severe financial problems for farmers — especially those who grow corn — that Iowa appears particularly vulnerable.
“在爱荷华州，我们可能会失去一切——至少会输掉州长选举，甚至参议院选举，谁知道还会发生什么呢，”一位在爱荷华州及其他州工作的共和党竞选顾问说道。
• "In Iowa, we should brace for losing everything, definitely the governor's race and maybe the Senate race and who knows what else," said one top GOP campaign consultant working in Iowa and other states. Driving the news:
推动这一新闻发展的因素：随着特朗普政府密切关注爱荷华州的局势，他于周一在白宫举行新闻发布会，宣布将在该州建设一座全国最大的钢铁厂。不过这座耗资150亿美元的钢铁厂要到2030年才能投产，因此无法为目前处境艰难的农民提供实质性的帮助。
As his political operation watches Iowa in alarm, Trump on Monday held a White House press conference to announce plans for a massive steel plant in the state that would be the nation's largest. • Iowa politicos note that the $15 billion plant wouldn't come online until 2030, too late to provide tangible relief to people who are hurting now.
详细分析：多年来，由于成本上升、农业产业整合以及外国竞争的加剧，爱荷华州的农业发展一直面临重重压力。农民们指出，最近的两大压力因素都与特朗普的政策直接相关：
Zoom in: Iowa farming has been difficult for years because of rising costs, consolidation trends and foreign competition. But farmers say two recent stressors are directly tied to Trump:
关税提高了化肥、农药和农业设备的成本，并导致市场不稳定；相关的贸易争端尤其损害了美国与加拿大的关系（加拿大购买了爱荷华州约30%的农产品出口）。
• Tariffs increased costs of fertilizer, pesticides and farm equipment, and caused market instability. The related trade wars especially hurt U.S. relations with Canada, which buys about 30% of Iowa's exports.
伊朗战争导致爱荷华州的柴油价格上涨了近80%，迫使农民不得不承担巨额开支，甚至不得不贷款维持生计，并将机械使用量降至最低限度。
• The war in Iran increased the cost of diesel by nearly 80% in Iowa, forcing farmers to bleed money, consider taking loans just to survive and limit machine use to critical levels.
整体形势：“爱荷华州正处于农业危机的最前沿，”这位顾问指出，“这场危机不仅影响爱荷华州，还可能波及堪萨斯州、内布拉斯加州，甚至密苏里州。”民调显示，堪萨斯州的参议院选举和内布拉斯加州的州长选举竞争比预期更加激烈。
The big picture: "Iowa is on the front end of a farm crisis. It's ground zero," the consultant said. "But this is in the corn belt and it's showing signs of spreading to Kansas and Nebraska, even Missouri." • Polls show tighter-than-expected races in the Kansas Senate race and Nebraska's gubernatorial campaign.
- 2024年，特朗普在艾奥瓦州以超过13个百分点的优势获胜。但在当前的美国参议院竞选中，共和党众议员阿什利·辛森（Ashley Hinson）在民调平均值上与民主党州众议员乔什·图雷克（Josh Turek）基本持平。
• Trump won Iowa by more than 13 percentage points in 2024. But in the current U.S. Senate race, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson is essentially tied in polling averages with Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek.
- 在艾奥瓦州的州长竞选中，民主党籍州审计长罗伯·桑德（Rob Sand）以较大的优势领先于共和党提名人扎克·拉恩（Zach Lahn）。
• In Iowa's race for governor, state Auditor Rob Sand, a Democrat, leads Republican nominee Zach Lahn by larger margins. Between the lines
字里行间共和党选民、艾奥瓦州玉米种植者协会主席马克·穆勒（Mark Mueller）表示，他不认为共和党的问题“极其严重”，因为民调结果可能存在偏差。
Mark Mueller, a Republican voter and president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, said he didn't think the GOP problem is "dire" because the polls could be off.
- “人们只是不好意思告诉民调人员他们投票给了特朗普，”穆勒指出，“辛森和拉恩并没有邀请总统到这里来，而且辛森现在正在标榜她与特朗普的‘独立性’，因为她呼吁结束她曾经支持的伊朗战争。”
• "People are just embarrassed to tell pollsters they voted for Trump," said Mueller, noting that "Hinson and Lanh haven't had the president out here, and Hinson is touting her independence" from Trump now that she's calling for the end of the Iran war, which she once supported.
- 然而，辛森周一在椭圆形办公室与特朗普会面，并接受了总统的赞扬。
• Hinson, though, was with Trump in the Oval Office on Monday, soaking up praise from the president.
穆勒说，他在艾奥瓦州韦弗利的农场目前“勉强维持”，但他表示：“我很容易预见到会有更多的农民破产或退休。这对年轻人打击很大。他们更难入行。这对小农户伤害很大。” • 利率正在上升——这对像他这样通过贷款来维持大部分运营、并在农作物销售后偿还贷款的农民来说，是又一次打击。
Mueller said his farm in Waverly, Iowa, is "scraping by," but that "I can easily see more farmers going bankrupt or retiring. This hurts the young guys. They have a harder time getting in. This hurts the small guys." • Interest rates are rising — an extra hit to farmers like him who finance much of their operation by taking out loans they repay after crop sales.
- “有些人说他们甚至无法将家庭农场传给儿子，”他说，“这不会像80年代的危机那样严重。但情况正在变糟。”
• "Some guys are saying they can't even leave the family farm to their son," he said. "It's not going to be like the crisis in the '80s.
耐人寻味之处：对于艾奥瓦州的共和党人来说，农耕地区是可靠的票仓，但很少有人认为这些选民会突然倒向民主党。
But it's getting bad." The intrigue: Farm country is reliably Republican for Iowa's GOP, but few expect those voters to suddenly side with Democrats.
- 共和党人的担忧——以及民主党人的希望——在于许多共和党选民可能会在选举日当天选择不去投票。
• The worry for Republicans — and the hope for Democrats — is that many of these GOP voters just stay home on Election Day.
- 弗里蒙特县的退休玉米和大豆农民、民主党人朱利叶斯·沙夫（Julius Shaaf）表示，他怀疑许多根基稳固的艾奥瓦州农民会停止投票给共和党。但他表示，没有安全网的年轻农民在面对这种波动时处境更加艰难。
• Julius Shaaf, a Democrat who's a retired Iowa corn and soybean farmer in Freemont County, said he's skeptical that many well-established Iowa farmers will stop voting for Republicans. But younger farmers without a safety net are having a harder time with the volatility, he said.
“这场选举简直会把他们彻底击败，”沙夫（Schaaf）说道，“他们几乎不可能在这种情况下继续坚持下去。”
• "It's just absolutely wiping them out," Schaaf said. "It's almost impossible for them to carry on like this."
与此同时，欣森（Hinson）的支持者们担心自己会被拉恩（Lahn）拖垮——拉恩一直受到自由派媒体的严厉批评，这些媒体质疑他在爱荷华州的居住资格以及他的农业背景。
Meanwhile, Hinson supporters are concerned about getting dragged down by Lahn, who has been dogged by critical coverage in liberal media outlets questioning his residency in Iowa and his farming background • "Ashley can survive.
“阿什利（Ashley）还有机会获胜，但我不敢赌拉恩会赢，”一位爱荷华州共和党高层人士表示。
I wouldn't bet on Lahn," said one top Iowa Republican. What they're saying:
各方观点如下：欣森的竞选团队强调她与农业界的紧密联系以及她获得的农民团体支持，认为她有望获胜。
Hinson's campaign touted her ties to agriculture and her endorsement from farmers' groups, predicting she would win.
拉恩的竞选团队则认为，选民登记情况以及爱荷华州保守的文化背景将决定选举结果。
• Lahn's campaign says voter registration trends and Iowa's conservative culture will carry the day.
“每当在中期选举中同时面临三个众议院席位、一个参议院席位以及一个未决的州长职位时，你就必须全力以赴去争取这些席位，”拉恩的首席顾问卢克·汤普森（Luke Thompson）说。
• "Anytime you have three frontline House seats, a frontline Senate seat and an open gubernatorial race in a midterm, you're going to have to go out and fight for it," said Lahn's top adviser, Luke Thompson.
“这肯定会很艰难，”他补充道，“但现在就放弃抵抗实在是个愚蠢的决定。”
• "It is going to be hard," he said. "But pant-shitting is silly."