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巴西2026年通胀预测升至4.99%,高于目标水平Brazil's 2026 inflation forecast rises to 4.99%, above target

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巴西中央银行周一表示,其每周进行的‘Focus’调查显示,经济学家们现在预计2026年的通胀率将达到4.99%,高于官方设定的4.5%的上限。

Brazil's central bank said Monday that economists in its weekly Focus survey now expect 2026 inflation to reach 4.99%, above the official target ceiling of 4.5%.

由于经济某些领域的价格压力持续存在,这一预测值在最近的几周调查中不断上升。

The forecast has crept higher in recent weekly surveys as price pressures persist across parts of the economy.

当前12个月的通胀率为4.22%,这一预测表明分析师们认为未来几个月的价格增长将会加速而非放缓。巴西中央银行将通胀目标定为3%,容忍范围为4.5%。

The projection sits well above the current 12-month inflation reading of 4.22%, suggesting analysts expect price growth to accelerate rather than ease over the coming months. Brazil's central bank targets inflation of 3%, with a tolerance band extending to 4.5%.

这一修订后的预测发布在巴西第一轮总统选举前九天,为已经密切关注卢拉总统和弗拉维奥·博索纳罗参议员之间竞争的投资者提供了另一个数据参考。

The revised forecast lands nine days before Brazil's first-round presidential vote, adding another data point for investors already tracking the tight race between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

分析师们表示,选举结果可能会影响中央银行是否维持或调整其当前的政策立场。

Analysts say the outcome could influence whether the central bank holds or shifts its current policy stance.