By David M. Drucker Mike Rogers is a promising Senate candidate with a sterling resume who could upset Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in swing-state Michigan during an otherwise discouraging midterm election cycle for the Republican Party. His potentially fatal mistake? A cautious, outdated campaign strategy that minimizes contact with voters and his opponent. If the 63-year-old former congressman and ex-FBI agent can’t benefit from more bright contrasts with a flawed candidate like El-Sayed — and there’s a strong argument that Rogers can and would — then the race is already lost.

And that would hand Democrats a crucial win in the battle for Senate control, while depriving Republicans one of the few opportunities they have to flip a Democratic-held seat. Rogers is executing a campaign better suited to 1996 or 2006, rather than 2026, particularly compared to his media-omnipresent opponent. Events are tightly scripted, with supporters arrayed behind the candidate as they all deliver remarks tailored for use by media outlets.

News conferences are short — about five minutes long — and closely managed by campaign aides. Freewheeling interactions with voters are limited, with few if any town hall meetings that allow for unscreened questions and inevitable hostile confrontations. But to top off Rogers’ throwback campaign strategy with a tart Michigan cherry, El-Sayed asked for five debates; Rogers agreed to only two. Just last week, Rogers skipped a candidate forum that El-Sayed eagerly attended.

The absence blew a chance for voters to experience the differences between Rogers and his 41-year-old progressive opponent, who stirs controversy wherever he goes. (The Rogers campaign says the candidate had a scheduling conflict for the event and emphasized he will appear before the host group Oct. 23.) Some Republican insiders in Michigan are perplexed by Rogers’ guarded strategy, which they’re referring to as playing “prevent defense” even as he trails El-Sayed in most public polling. So am I. True, Rogers isn’t the only Republican to sidestep available debates.

Florida Senator Ashley Moody is refusing to debate her challenger, Democratic Socialist Angie Nixon. But Moody is running in a red state and is favored. In Michigan, El-Sayed is the frontrunner. He enjoys political tailwinds fanned by President Donald Trump’s severe unpopularity and is running in a battleground state that hasn’t elected a Republican to the US Senate since 1994 in a historic GOP wave. And yet it’s El-Sayed who is campaigning like the underdog, with a modern, flood-the-zone strategy. Since winning the Democratic nomination on Aug. 4, he’s hosted 31 town hall-style events, while submitting to sometimes-adversarial podcast interviews and questioning from reporters.

El-Sayed has even appeared on Fox News in an effort to woo Republican voters. The Rogers campaign, however, is defending its strategy and describing the Republican’s refusal to participate in more than two debates as an effort to deny El-Sayed the stature afforded by sharing a stage with the former congressman. “Sure, he’s going viral, but I don’t necessarily know that Internet fame translates to success at the ballot box,” Rogers campaign spokesman Abby Ronson said.

The Rogers campaign is not alone among Republicans in reaching that conclusion. And considering all of the social media posts El-Sayed has deleted, the argument is no doubt viable. El-Sayed, a veteran of the Detroit and Wayne County health departments, has an appealing, three-pronged message: “Get money out of politics. Put money in your pocket. Pass Medicare for All.”But Rogers’ theory is that voters will ultimately deem El-Sayed unacceptable for reasons that exceed standard ideological and political differences.

El-Sayed has campaigned with and refused to disavow Hasan Piker, a Twitch video streamer who traffics in antisemitic and anti-American tropes. The Democratic candidate also refuses to affirm Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state and wouldn’t criticize a deadly terrorist attack on a suburban Detroit synagogue that the FBI described as inspired by religious militant group Hezbollah, although he has since apologized and clarified his position. And he has declined to condemn atrocities committed by Iran. The list goes on, contributing to an underperformance in polls compared to Michigan’s Democratic gubernatorial nominee, jeopardizing his party’s hold on this Senate seat.

Republican operatives involved in the Michigan Senate race tell me these and other questionable moves by El-Sayed have made the contest competitive, despite the toxic environment for the GOP and Trump’s low job approval ratings. That’s because Republicans now have a reason to show up on Election Day, diminishing the voter-enthusiasm edge Democrats enjoy in most other midterm battlegrounds states and congressional districts. Portions of certain blocs of traditional Democrats, including Jewish and Black voters, are considering supporting Rogers.

The Democrat nonetheless has the edge in this race. That’s a product of voters’ deep frustration with the direction of the country, related to inflation that has remained stubbornly high since the outset of Trump’s second term and an Iran war in its seventh month that a majority of the American public has opposed since Day One. Even Senate seats in perennially red states like Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas are in play.

Which is why I find it odd that Rogers isn’t maxing out his best weapon in his campaign against El-Sayed: himself.

To contact the author of this story: at ddrucker8@bloomberg.net