在最后的选举冲刺阶段，巴西的卢拉肩负着让拉丁美洲的左翼势力重新崛起的希望。
9月29日，当巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦在纽约联合国大会上发表讲话时，他利用这一全球最重要的外交舞台，传递了一个信息——这很可能是他长达数十年政治生涯中的最后一次总统竞选宣言。
In final election fight, Brazil's Lula carries hopes of Latin America's receding left BRASILIA, Sept 29 - When Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva addressed the United Nations General Assembly in New York this month, he used one of the world's biggest diplomatic stages to deliver a message that has come to define what is likely the final presidential campaign of his decades-long career.
“巴西不属于任何国家的‘后院’，”他在掌声中说道。他似乎将这个拉丁美洲最大国家的选举视为一场更广泛的反民主势力斗争的一部分，并警告称今年选举中存在“外国干涉”。
"Brazil does not fit into anyone's backyard," he said to applause, seeming to portray Sunday's vote in the largest Latin American country as part of a wider battle against undemocratic forces as he warned of "foreign interference" in this year's race.
近年来，在华盛顿方面强势的特朗普政府的支持下，右翼势力在拉丁美洲取得了多场选举胜利。因此，许多进步人士认为，卢拉与参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗（前极右翼总统贾伊尔·博索纳罗的儿子）之间的竞选，可能成为扭转该地区保守趋势的关键转折点。
After a wave of right-wing election victories swept Latin America in recent years, aided by the return of an emboldened Trump administration in Washington, many progressives view his reelection bid against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, as a potential turning point that could help reverse the region's conservative drift.
在竞选演讲中，卢拉将弗拉维奥·博索纳罗称为“无足轻重的人物”，并将其与阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱、以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普相提并论，以此来象征整个右翼势力的本质。
Lula has sought to portray Senator Bolsonaro, whom he has called a "nobody" in campaign speeches, as a stand-in for a broader right-wing movement, sharing images linking the senator to Argentina's President Javier Milei, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and US President Donald Trump.
尽管卢拉政府在减少贫富差距和降低失业率方面取得了一定成效，但选民们仍对不断上涨的生活成本感到不满；同时，该国长达近十年的社会两极分化问题也尚未得到解决。
Yet Lula enters the campaign's closing stretch about even with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, running in place of his father, who was arrested for leading a failed coup after losing to Lula in 2022.
卢拉访问纽约期间，国际社会对这场选举表现出了极大的关注——他分别与美国的进步人士、纽约市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼以及参议员伯尼·桑德斯进行了会面。拉丁美洲的社交媒体用户也密切关注着这场竞选活动。
Despite success with falling inequality and unemployment, Lula's government still struggles with voter frustration with rising living costs, and it has not overcome the polarization that has gripped the country for nearly a decade. The international interest in the race was evident during Lula's New York visit, where he met US progressives, Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Senator Bernie Sanders.
国际观察人士有一种看法：巴西此次选举不仅仅是选出一位总统。鉴于巴西的影响力，它正在帮助决定，在民主与威权主义全球斗争的下一阶段，哪个政治阵营将占据更有利的位置。”进步派智库华盛顿巴西办公室执行主任保罗·阿布拉奥说。
Latin American social media users have also been following the campaign intensely. “There is a perception among international observers that Brazil is not merely electing a president. Given the country’s influence, it is helping to determine which political camp will emerge stronger in the next phase of a global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism," said Paulo Abrao, executive director of the progressive think tank Washington Brazil Office.
一名与总统关系密切人士称，几位出席联合国会议的领导人对巴西代表团表示，他们“正带着忧虑关注着我们，关注这些选举结束后我们将拥有一个怎样的巴西”。只要我还活着卢拉于2023年重新执政，为这场戏剧性的东山再起画上了句号。
One person close to the president said that several leaders who were at the UN told the Brazilian delegation that they "are watching us with concern about which Brazil we will have after these elections." 'AS LONG AS I AM ALIVE' Lula's 2023 return to power capped a dramatic comeback.
12年前，卢拉以87%的支持率卸任。如今，在2002年将他的政党推上执政位置的那股乐观浪潮，已大多被仇恨的浪潮所取代。
After leaving office 12 years earlier with an 87% approval rating, Lula saw the wave of optimism that had brought his party to power in 2002 largely replaced by a wave of hatred.
2016年，在巴西陷入动荡之际，包括他的继任者、前总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫遭到弹劾在内，卢拉成为一桩大规模腐败调查的主要目标。
In 2016, he became the main target in a sprawling corruption investigation as Brazil descended into turmoil, including the impeachment of his successor, former President Dilma Rousseff.
由于调查和司法程序存在缺陷，卢拉服刑580天后，定罪被推翻。
Lula spent 580 days in prison before his conviction was overturned because of flaws in the investigations and legal proceedings.
这一逮捕使他无法与雅伊尔·博索纳罗竞选对决。博索纳罗曾是一名陆军上尉，2018年上台时发誓要推翻进步派自20世纪80年代军事统治结束以来取得的大部分成果。
The arrest stopped him from running against Jair Bolsonaro, a former army captain who rose to power in 2018 vowing to undo much of what progressives had achieved since the end of military rule in the 1980s.
尽管如此，卢拉仍是全球许多左翼人士的象征，吸引了从乌拉圭前总统何塞·穆希卡到哲学家诺姆·乔姆斯基在内的各类访客。
Still, Lula remained a symbol for much of the global left, attracting visitors that ranged from former Uruguayan President Pepe Mujica to the philosopher Noam Chomsky.
他重返公职时坚信，巴西正站在一场更广泛斗争的前线，这场斗争的对手是全球右翼运动。
He returned to office convinced that Brazil stood on the front line of a broader struggle against a global right-wing movement.
2023年1月8日，即卢拉就职数日后，博索纳罗的支持者袭击了巴西利亚的政府大楼。对许多人而言，这一事件只会进一步强化他的信念。
The January 8, 2023, attacks by Bolsonaro supporters on government buildings in Brasilia, days after his inauguration, only reinforced that belief for many.
“只要我还活着，极右翼就无法在这个国家重新掌权。”他在竞选活动中反复说道。
"As long as I am alive, the far right will not return to power in this country," he has repeatedly said while promoting his campaign.
地区层面的博弈 卢拉虽然加强了对华关系、恢复了巴西在新兴国家金砖五国集团中的领导地位，并扩大了与欧洲的接触，但南美洲近期一系列右翼势力的胜利，以及他与特朗普政府之间的对抗关系，已使他在西半球日益孤立。
REGIONAL STAKES While Lula has strengthened ties with China, revived Brazil's leadership role in the BRICS bloc of emerging nations and expanded engagement with Europe, recent right-wing victories in South America, and a confrontational relationship with the Trump administration, have left him increasingly isolated in the Western Hemisphere.
一些巴西外交官表示，继特朗普阵营支持的政府在智利、哥伦比亚、洪都拉斯和秘鲁获胜，以及美国军事干预委内瑞拉后 unprecedented地扩大在该国的影响，华盛顿已将巴西视为拉丁美洲全面转向特朗普阵营的最后一个主要障碍。
Some Brazilian diplomats say Washington views Brazil as the last major obstacle to a sweep of Trump-aligned governments across Latin America, after recent victories in Chile, Colombia, Honduras and Peru, and an unprecedented expansion of US power in Venezuela after its military intervention.
美国经济与政策研究中心这一左翼智库的亚历克斯·梅因说，在华盛顿，进步派人士将卢拉视为“希望的灯塔”。
In Washington, progressives view Lula as a "beacon of hope," said Alex Main of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, a left-leaning think tank.
在邻国阿根廷，自由意志主义总统哈维尔·米莱的反对者认为，卢拉若能连任，可能为明年的大选注入一股推动力。
In neighboring Argentina, opponents of libertarian President Javier Milei see Lula's possible reelection as a potential boost ahead of next year's vote.
议员兼前外长圣地亚哥·卡菲罗说：“如果卢拉获胜，将会在该地区已经成形的趋势中形成一股逆流，并表明有人抵抗这些右翼风潮。”
"If Lula wins, it will create a countercurrent to what has been taking hold in the region and show there is resistance to these right-wing winds," said Santiago Cafiero, a congressman and former foreign minister.
欧洲及其他地区自由派政府的外交官也一直在密切观望。这些政府一直支持巴西推进进步主义气候 initiatives。
Diplomats from liberal governments in Europe and other regions, who have been supportive of Brazil's progressive climate initiatives, are also watching closely.
一位要求匿名的欧洲大使说：“如果人权受到严重侵犯，或者亚马孙地区的毁林现象大规模加剧，那么我们将更难与巴西开展接触。”
"If human rights are being violated in a pretty big way or if the Amazon is being deforested in a big way, then it's going to be much more difficult for us to engage with Brazil," said a European ambassador, who asked not to be named.
干预的担忧 巴西对特朗普及其关税政策的抵制似乎在部分选民中为卢拉赢得了优势。随着一些进步派人士把参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗称为“塔里弗拉维奥”，卢拉的支持率有所上升。此举暗指博索纳罗最近访问美国，以争取特朗普的支持。
FEARS OF INTERFERENCE Brazil's resistance to Trump and his tariffs appears to have benefited Lula among some voters, lifting his approval ratings as some progressives dubbed Flavio Bolsonaro as "Tariflavio," pointing to the senator's recent visit to the US to win Trump's support.
但是，最近几周，卢拉的支持者表达了担忧，特朗普政府可能在卢拉赢得选举后拒绝承认选举结果，并称干预选举的企图已经在进行中。
But in recent weeks, Lula's allies have voiced concerns that the Trump administration might refuse to recognize election results if he wins, arguing attempts to interfere are already underway.
他们提到了美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥的言论，他指责卢拉导致贸易谈判失败，而这场失败促成了美国对巴西商品加征更高关税。美国国务院还称，曾试图派遣美国官员赴巴西，执行“讨论选举诚信”的任务，但未能成行。
They point to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's remarks blaming Lula for the failure of trade negotiations that led to higher US tariffs on Brazilian goods, and a failed effort to send US officials to Brazil on a mission to "discuss electoral integrity," according to the US State Department.
据路透社当时援引的消息人士称，在2022年选举前，前总统乔·拜登派中央情报局局长去告诉前总统博索纳罗不要干预选举，并确保美国成为最先承认选举结果的国家之一。
Before the 2022 election, former President Joe Biden sent his Central Intelligence Agency director to tell former President Bolsonaro not to mess with elections, sources told Reuters at the time, and made sure the US was among the first countries to recognize the result.
上周，包括美国众议员亚历山德里娅·奥卡西奥-科尔特兹在内的31名国会议民主党议员，敦促鲁比奥尊重巴西的选举结果。
Last week, 31 Democrats in Congress, including US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, urged Rubio to respect Brazil's election result.
在一封信中，他们对巴西境内“持续、多方面的干预和破坏稳定行动”表示“严重关切”。
In a letter, they expressed "grave concern" over a "sustained, multifaceted campaign of interference and destabilization in Brazil."
美国国务院没有回应置评请求，但否认了卢拉政府此前提出的干预选举指控。
The State Department did not respond to a request for comment but has denied previous accusations from Lula's government of election interference.