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中东石油出口增加,霍尔木兹海峡液化天然气运输量回升Middle East oil exports rise as LNG traffic through Hormuz picks up

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9月份中东原油出口量升至自七个月前伊朗战争爆发以来的最高月度水平。

Middle East crude oil exports rose in September to their highest monthly level since the Iran war began seven months ago.

根据Kpler的初步数据,该地区日出口量为1630万桶。这仍比2月份记录的1950万桶低约320万桶。

Preliminary data from Kpler put regional exports at 16.3 million barrels a day. That was still around 3.2 million barrels a day below the 19.5 million recorded in February.

沙特阿拉伯贡献了大部分增长,其出口量从8月份的日均245万桶增加了一倍多,达到9月份的约540万桶。

Saudi Arabia accounted for much of the increase, more than doubling its exports from 2.45 million barrels a day in August to around 5.4 million in September.

预计通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油流量将达到日均970万桶左右,因为在东西向输油管道遭袭受损后,沙特阿拉伯从其海湾码头输送了更多原油至红海。该地区总量还包括从海峡外港口装运的石油。

Flows through the Strait of Hormuz were projected to reach about 9.7 million barrels a day as Saudi Arabia sent additional crude from its Gulf terminals after attacks damaged its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. The regional total also includes oil shipped from ports outside the strait.

本月还有几艘与卡塔尔相关的液化天然气(LNG)油轮穿过了霍尔木兹海峡,而8月份未记录到明显的通行。

Several Qatar-linked LNG tankers also crossed Hormuz this month after no visible crossings were recorded in August.

然而,正常的出口尚未恢复,卡塔尔能源公司(QatarEnergy)已延长了对欧洲和亚洲部分客户的交付暂停期限。

Normal exports have not resumed, however, and QatarEnergy has extended delivery suspensions for some customers in Europe and Asia.

爱迪生公司(Edison)表示,已收到卡塔尔能源公司发出的新通知,将不可抗力期限延长至12月初。原定运往意大利亚得里亚海LNG终端的另外6批LNG货物将无法交付。这使得自4月份以来未交付的货物总数达到35批。

Edison said it had received a new notice from QatarEnergy extending force majeure until early December. Another six LNG cargoes due at Italy’s Adriatic LNG terminal will not be delivered. That brings the number of missed cargoes since April to 35.

爱迪生公司已经更换了其中的23批货物,主要由来自美国的天然气替代。爱迪生公司与卡塔尔能源公司签订的25年期合同每年供应64亿立方米天然气,相当于意大利总消费量的10%左右。巴基斯坦和孟加拉国的一些客户也被告知,交付暂停将持续到11月。不可抗力条款允许公司在无法控制的事件阻碍其履行合同时,暂停其合同义务。

Edison has replaced 23 of them, mainly with gas from the United States. Edison’s 25-year contract with QatarEnergy supplies 6.4 billion cubic metres of gas a year, equal to around 10% of Italy’s total consumption. Some customers in Pakistan and Bangladesh have also been told that delivery suspensions will continue through November. Force majeure allows a company to suspend its contractual obligations when events outside its control prevent it from fulfilling them.

此次中断始于2月28日美以联合对伊朗发动的袭击,这是持续战争的第一波攻势,该行动大幅减少了通过霍尔木兹海峡的交通,同时美国和伊朗均将海峡内外的商船作为目标。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周六拒绝了伊朗提出的在七天内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡并结束战斗的提议。该提议是通过卡塔尔调解人转交给华盛顿的,卡塔尔方面仍在继续推动谈判。

The disruption began after joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February in the opening salvo of the ongoing war, which has sharply reduced traffic through Hormuz, while both the US and Iran targeted commercial ships in and around the strait.US President Donald Trump on Saturday rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen Hormuz and end the fighting within seven days. The proposal had been passed to Washington through Qatari mediators, who are continuing to push for talks.

据伊朗国家广播公司IRIB报道,伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴吉尔·卡利巴夫表示,除非伊朗的安全得到保障,否则该地区的任何基础设施都不会安全。他说:“在一个伊朗无法出口石油的地区,其他人也别想出口石油。”

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said no infrastructure in the region would be safe unless Iran’s security was guaranteed, according to state broadcaster IRIB.“In a region where Iran cannot sell oil, no one else will sell oil either,” he said.

哪些液化天然气(LNG)油轮穿过了霍尔木兹海峡?来自Kpler和LSEG的船舶跟踪数据显示,GasLog Skagen号周日出现在斯里兰卡附近,船上载有来自卡塔尔拉斯拉凡终端的液化天然气。它最后一次被追踪到是在9月20日进入海湾地区。Al Ghashamiya号上周向印度交付了一批卡塔尔货物,而Shandong Redwood号则将液化天然气运往了巴基斯坦。

Which LNG tankers crossed Hormuz? Ship-tracking data from Kpler and LSEG showed GasLog Skagen off Sri Lanka on Sunday carrying LNG from Qatar’s Ras Laffan terminal. It had last been tracked inside the Gulf on 20 September. Al Ghashamiya delivered a Qatari cargo to India last week, while Shandong Redwood carried LNG to Pakistan.

“阿尔·达延”号(Al Daayen)载着一批货物从霍尔木兹海峡驶出,目的地是中国。另一艘与卡塔尔有关的油轮“阿尔·马菲亚尔”(Al Mafyar)也在9月22日被追踪到进入了该海峡。由于部分船舶在通过霍尔木兹海峡时会关闭自身的追踪系统,因此实际通过该海峡的船舶数量并不清楚。根据数据提供商ICIS的统计,战争爆发后的前六个月里,卡塔尔仅出口了18批液化天然气(LNG)货物,而去年同期这一数字为509批。

Al Daayen emerged from Hormuz with a shipment bound for China. An empty Qatar-linked tanker, Al Mafyar, was also tracked entering the strait on 22 September. The total number of crossings is unclear because some ships turn off their tracking systems as they pass through Hormuz, making them harder to locate. Qatar exported only 18 LNG cargoes during the first six months of the war, compared with 509 in the same period a year earlier, according to data provider ICIS.

所有从卡塔尔出口的液化天然气都必须经过霍尔木兹海峡——因为该国没有其他出口路线可供选择。卡塔尔能源部长萨阿德·谢里达·阿尔-卡比(Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi)上周表示,在海峡周围修建输气管道在经济上并不划算;这样的输气管道需要在一个位于卡塔尔境外的新设施中将天然气转化为液化天然气,之后才能将其装载到油轮上。

Every LNG tanker leaving Qatar must pass through Hormuz because the country has no alternative export route. Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi said last week that building a pipeline around the strait would make no economic sense. Such a route would require a new plant outside Qatar to turn piped gas into LNG before it could be loaded onto tankers.

对拉斯拉芬(Ras Laffan)地区的袭击导致两座液化天然气生产设施受损,使卡塔尔的天然气生产能力减少了约17%。阿尔-卡比表示,修复这些设施需要大约三年的时间;不过,一旦船舶能够安全、定期地通过霍尔木兹海峡,卡塔尔剩余的12座未受损的生产设施有望在几周内恢复正常运行。

Attacks on Ras Laffan damaged two LNG production units, cutting Qatar’s production capacity by around 17%. Al-Kaabi said repairs would take about three years, but the country’s 12 undamaged units could return to normal operations within weeks once ships could pass through Hormuz safely and regularly.