迈克尔·菲利斯，M.K. 怀尔德曼 华盛顿——美国的洪水保险计划在可负担性、洪水防护和纳税人成本之间艰难权衡，使数百万人在气候变化推动洪水风险上升之际处于脆弱境地。
MICHAEL PHILLIS, M.K. WILDEMAN WASHINGTON — The nation’s flood insurance program struggles to balance affordability, flood protection and cost to taxpayers, leaving millions vulnerable at a time when climate change is driving flood risk higher.
美联社的一项分析显示，全美仅有2.4%的房产由450万份联邦洪水保险保单覆盖——但有8.4%的房产面临严重或极端的洪水风险。
Nationwide, just 2.4% of properties are covered by 4.5 million federal flood insurance policies, an Associated Press analysis shows — but 8.4% are at severe or extreme risk of flooding.
这一问题在肯塔基州东部尤为严重——根据联邦政府的数据以及风险分析机构First Street独家提供给美联社的数据，在一些邮政编码区域，投保洪水保险的房产不超过5%，尽管有数百甚至数千栋建筑面临极端洪水风险。
The problem is especially bad in eastern Kentucky — where in some ZIP codes, no more than 5% of properties are covered by flood insurance, even though hundreds or thousands of buildings are at extreme risk of flooding, according to figures from the federal government and data provided exclusively to the AP by the risk analysis group First Street.
不仅仅是阿巴拉契亚地区——沿海地区，包括路易斯安那州南部的部分地区，也同样突出。专家表示，洪水高风险且投保人数较少的地区往往更贫困，联邦应急管理署（FEMA）的洪水地图未能正确传达风险的严重程度、也未强制足够多的人购买保险的地区也是如此。以下是美联社报道的要点：国会于1968年设立了国家洪水保险计划。该计划在同意采取措施管理洪水风险的参与社区中提供洪水保险，例如限制在高风险区域进行建设。房主保险不涵盖洪水。
It’s not just Appalachia — coastal areas, including parts of southern Louisiana, stand out, too. Areas at high risk of flooding and where few people are insured tend to be poorer, experts said, as are areas where FEMA’s flood maps don’t properly convey the severity of the risk or mandate that enough people buy coverage. Here are the takeaways from the AP story: Congress set up the National Flood Insurance Program in 1968. It offers flood insurance in participating communities that agree to take steps to manage flood risk, such as restricting construction in high-risk areas. Homeowners insurance doesn’t cover floods.
租户和企业均可购买保单，但大多数保单由房主购买，最高覆盖25万美元的财产和10万美元的财物。FEMA的洪水地图确定谁位于高风险区域，在这些区域，联邦支持的抵押贷款必须附带洪水保险。
Policies are available to renters and businesses, but most are purchased by homeowners covering up to $250,000 for their property and $100,000 for belongings. FEMA flood maps determine who is in a high-risk area where flood insurance must be attached to a federally backed mortgage.
FEMA的洪水地图未能很好地反映严重洪水风险的范围。数百万人认为自己的房屋比实际更安全，并且在可能应该购买保险时并未被强制购买。
FEMA’s flood maps don’t do a good job of capturing the extent of severe flood risk. Millions think their homes are safer than they really are and aren’t forced to buy insurance when they probably should.
2022年，肯塔基州东部发生了严重的洪水灾害，部分地区降雨量超过了1英尺（约25.4厘米），导致40多人死亡。根据美联社（AP）的分析，当时只有2.1%的房屋拥有保险；这一比例至今仍未改变，尽管大约47%的房屋面临严重的洪水风险。这意味着保险覆盖率的缺口高达45个百分点——是全国平均水平的7倍以上。
Consider the horrific 2022 floods in eastern Kentucky, when more than a foot of rain fell over parts of the state, killing more than 40 people. Where the flood struck, just 2.1% of properties were insured then, a rate that remains about the same today, the AP analysis shows, even though about 47% are at severe or extreme risk of flooding. That’s a gap of 45 percentage points — more than 7 times the national average.
美国联邦紧急事务管理局（FEMA）的洪水风险地图在2022年的洪水中未能准确反映所有风险情况：只有18%的受灾建筑物位于高风险区域。
FEMA’s flood maps didn’t catch all that risk during the 2022 flood, with only 18% of the buildings that were affected falling within a high-risk zone.
这些洪水风险地图通常已经过时，且未能考虑到某些类型的洪水风险（例如由内陆强降雨引发的洪水）。First Street公司的首席经济学家杰里米·波特（Jeremy Porter）指出：“保险覆盖率最低的地区通常是那些远离大型水体的内陆地区；在中西部和东北部，极端降水正是气候变化的具体表现。”
Flood maps, which are commonly out of date, don’t consider some types of flood risk, such as flooding from inland heavy rains. The places with the biggest insurance gaps are those where heavy precipitation flooding occurs away from large water bodies, said Jeremy Porter, the chief economist at First Street.
据美联社估计，目前一份洪水保险政策的年费用为1,100美元，比五年前上涨了约90%。居住在查尔斯湖（Lake Charles）的丹·查尔森（Dan Charlson）表示，当他发现保险费用变得过高时，便决定取消了自己的保险政策。他的保险费用从最初的900美元涨到了4,000美元，并且预计还会继续上涨。“我考虑了修复房屋所需的费用，以及自己50年来才遭遇一次洪水的实际情况……这其实是一个风险评估问题，”他说。
“That’s the Appalachian region, further inland, and then in the Midwest and Northeast in particular, extreme precipitation is the way climate change is manifesting itself,” he said. The typical cost of a flood insurance policy is $1,100 per year, up roughly 90% in the last five years, the AP’s estimates show. Lake Charles resident Dan Charlson said he dropped his policy when the math no longer worked. His insurance shot up over time from roughly $900 to $4,000 — an amount he expected to keep climbing. “I’m looking at what it costs to fix the house, and the fact that I only flooded once in 50 years. So, it’s a risk analysis,” he said.
保险费用的上涨主要是由于保险公司试图通过现代化手段来更准确地评估洪水风险并据此制定保险价格。几年前，联邦政府推出了“风险评级系统2.0”（Risk Rating 2.0），该系统能够更准确地将房屋的洪水风险与保险费用相匹配。
The costs have been driven up chiefly by efforts to modernize pricing. A couple of years ago, the federal government introduced Risk Rating 2.0, a much more accurate way of aligning a property’s flood risk with the price of coverage.
但更准确的洪水保险定价意味着大多数买家整体上要支付高得多的价格。一份政府监督报告发现，墨西哥湾沿岸各州此前的定价低估最为严重，在新定价结构下需要最大的涨幅。
But more accurately priced flood insurance meant much higher prices overall for most buyers. A government watchdog report found that Gulf Coast states had been the most underpriced and required the largest increases under the new pricing structure.
FEMA在一份声明中表示，需要更严格的建筑规范、更合理的分区以及有竞争力的私营保险选项，而不是将所有洪水风险和成本都转嫁给联邦政府。风险评级2.0的准确性让保单持有人更好地了解自己的真实风险。如果没有国会的行动，该机构无法解决可负担性问题，也无法迫使私营保险公司进入市场。
FEMA said in a statement that stronger building codes, smarter zoning and competitive private insurance options are needed rather than shifting all flood risk and cost to the federal government. Risk Rating 2.0’s accuracy gives policyholders a better sense of their true risk. The agency can’t address affordability without action from Congress, and it can’t make private insurance companies enter the market.
FEMA正在开发一个更好的洪水风险测绘系统，名为“洪水风险数据未来”。这项工作的时间表尚不明确。
FEMA is working on a better system to map flood risk, called Future of Flood Risk Data. The timeline for that work isn’t clear.
改革该计划的提案一直停滞不前，包括增加选项以使其对低收入买家更可负担。
Proposals to overhaul the program have stalled, including adding options to make it more affordable to low-income buyers.
“每个人都同意它已经失灵，但没有人能就如何修复达成一致，”哥伦比亚大学国家灾难防备中心的杰弗里·施莱格尔米尔奇说。
“Everybody agrees it’s broken, but no one can agree how to fix it,” said Jeffrey Schlegelmilch of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University.
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