美国和以色列于2月28日对伊朗发动袭击，声称旨在阻止德黑兰获取核武器，随后战火蔓延至整个海湾地区，波及该地区的石油和天然气设施，并延伸至海上。其后果远超战场范围，多个亚洲国家深陷能源危机。七个月后，HT回顾了这场战争的四个阶段。
After the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, saying they sought to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, the fighting spread across the Gulf, hitting the region’s oil and gas facilities and spilling into the sea. The consequences have been felt far beyond the battlefield, with several Asian countries reeling from an energy crisis. Seven months on, HT traces the war through its four stages.
在过去的214天里，双方曾多次看似接近达成协议。但4月8日宣布的停火协议于7月破裂，而旨在开放霍尔木兹海峡这一关键航运通道的临时备忘录也未能取得突破。在此背景下，冲突仍可能转向外交谈判、持续敌对行动，或两者的某种结合。无论接下来发生什么，都没有轻松的出路。
Over the past 214 days, there have been several moments when the two sides appeared close to a deal. But a ceasefire announced on April 8 collapsed in July, while an interim memorandum aimed at opening a key shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz failed to produce a breakthrough. Against this backdrop, the conflict could still move towards diplomacy and negotiations, continued hostilities, or some combination of the two. Whatever happens next, there is no easy way out.
七个月的动荡七个月过去了，双方距离和平似乎比6月时更远。当时宣布的停火备忘录将两大核心问题挂钩：重新开放霍尔木兹海峡和解除美国对伊朗港口的封锁。这两项均未落实。相反，9月出现了伊朗向美军军舰发射导弹、与伊朗有关的油轮被击沉等事件。美国国会研究局现在将这场冲突定性为消耗战。
Seven months of turbulence Seven months in, the two sides appear further from peace than they were in June. The ceasefire memorandum announced then had tied together the two central issues, reopening Hormuz and lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports. Neither has happened. Instead, September brought Iranian missile fire at US warships and the sinking of Iran-linked tankers. The US Congressional Research Service now describes the conflict as a war of attrition.
战争也已蔓延至伊朗、以色列和美国之外。据沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克称，9月有从伊拉克发射的无人机袭击了沙特阿拉伯的输油管道，而胡塞武装现在控制着曼德海峡的关键阵地。任何解决方案都必须涵盖那些未参与6月备忘录的武装团体。
The war has also spread beyond Iran, Israel and the US. Drones launched from Iraq, according to Saudi Arabia and Iraq, hit Saudi Arabia's pipeline in September, and the Houthis now hold key ground at Bab al-Mandab. Any settlement would have to reach armed groups that had no part in the June memorandum.
在伊朗班达尔阿巴斯附近，霍尔木兹海峡的船只清晰可见，前景矗立着伊朗军人的雕像。
A statue of Iranian military members, as vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are visible near Bandar Abbas, Iran.
对世界而言，这种风险敞口集中在两个狭窄的海峡。沙特阿拉伯已重启东西输油管道，尽管尚未达到满负荷运转，且其8月份的原油产量降至1990年以来的最低水平。在供应全球约五分之一液化天然气的拉斯拉凡（Ras Laffan）于3月遭到袭击后，卡塔尔能源公司（QatarEnergy）宣布对部分合同不可抗力。在霍尔木兹海峡重新开放之前，海湾地区对全球的供应将取决于同样遭到炮火袭击的管道和红海。
For the world, the exposure is concentrated in two narrow straits. Saudi Arabia has restarted the East-West pipeline, though not at full capacity, and its crude output in August was its lowest since 1990. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on some contracts after the March strike on Ras Laffan, which supplies about a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas. Until Hormuz reopens, Gulf supply to the world will depend on pipelines and the Red Sea, both of which have also come under fire.
资料来源：哥白尼30米数字高程模型（Copernicus 30m DEM）、全球石油基础设施追踪项目（Global Oil Infrastructure Tracker）、美国中央司令部（US Central Command）、英国海上贸易行动办公室（UK Maritime Trade Operations）、政府声明、国际特赦组织（Amnesty International）、标普全球（S&P Global）、美国国会研究处（US Congressional Research Service）、路透社、美联社、美国有线电视新闻网、彭博社、半岛电视台、英国广播公司
Sources: Copernicus 30m DEM, Global Oil Infrastructure Tracker, US Central Command, UK Maritime Trade Operations, government statements, Amnesty International, S&P Global, US Congressional Research Service, Reuters, AP, CNN, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, BBC