吉娜·雷蒙多认为自己是一个人工智能乐观主义者。她希望她的孩子们生活在一个能够创造出我们今天甚至无法想象的工作的美国，一个能够让人工智能的益处普及的美国：“更好的医疗保健、更好的技术、更好的数据，”她说道。
Gina Raimondo considers herself to be an AI optimist. She wants her children to live in an America where jobs we can't even think of today will be created, and where the benefits of AI spread: "Better healthcare, better technology, better data," she says.
那么，为什么这位前美国商务部长兼罗德岛州州长会如此担忧大规模裁员威胁会撕裂美国社会的纽带呢？她认为，这是因为缺乏规划。
So why is it that the former U.S. Commerce Secretary and Rhode Island Governor is so worried about the threat of mass layoffs ripping apart the fabric of U.S. society? Lack of planning, she says.
“我认为最坏的情况是，我们没有制定计划来确保每个美国人在人工智能时代都能拥有一份好工作，”雷蒙多在播客节目《CNBC变革者》（CNBC Changemakers）第二季的第一集节目中对CNBC的朱莉娅·布尔斯廷（Julia Boorstin）说道。
"I think the worst-case scenario is that we don't have a plan to make sure that every American can have a good job in the age of AI," Raimondo told CNBC's Julia Boorstin in the first episode of Season 2 of the "CNBC Changemakers" podcast. "Tens of millions of Americans will be put out of work or underemployed, and in that instance ...
雷蒙多在8月下旬接受的播客采访中表示：“数千万美国人将失业或就业不足，在这种情况下……我深感担忧。我认为可能会出现一场深度且持久的经济衰退。我认为可能会出现街头暴动。我是认真的。我在10年前不会这么说，但在过去的10年里，经济不平等达到了极高的水平，我们的民主每天都在走向撕裂。”
I worry deeply. I think you could have an economic recession that is deep and long. I think you could have rioting in the streets.
她表示，这种结果将会带来双重恶果，因为它会导致监管机构介入并叫停人工智能创新，从而可能将技术领先地位拱手让给中国和其他国家。
I mean that sincerely. I wouldn't have said that 10 years ago, but in the past 10 years, economic inequality is through the roof, and our democracy is fraying every day," Raimondo said in the podcast interview conducted in late August.
“如果我们任由人工智能自由发展，三年或四年后失业率可能会达到10%到11%，尤其是20多岁的年轻人失业率会更高，那我们就麻烦了，”雷蒙多说道。“‘麻烦’其实是一个非技术性的说法……所以我们必须未雨绸缪，提前做好准备。”事实上，没有人能够确切预测就业市场将会发生什么；任何声称能够预测未来的人其实都在夸大其词。
That kind of outcome would be doubly bad, she says, because it would lead to regulators stepping in to stop AI innovation, potentially ceding the technology lead to China and other nations. "If we just let AI loose, and wake up in, I don't know, three or four years with a 10-11% unemployment rate, 20% unemployment rate among young people, people in their 20s, I think we're screwed," Raimondo said. "It's a non-technical term ... So let's get ahead of it." The truth is no one can know for sure what will occur in the job market and anyone claiming to know is going too far.
目前，由于人工智能的发展，许多行业正在蓬勃发展；不过关于人工智能对就业和工资影响的初步研究仍然只是基于推测的结论（这些研究的作者自己也提醒过这一点）。与此同时，人工智能革命的一些领军人物在试图解释“为何人工智能必然会创造更多就业机会”时，并没有提供令人信服的论据。
Right now, many jobs are booming due to AI, while preliminary studies on the impact of AI on jobs and wages remain educated guess work, as their own authors caution. Meanwhile, some of the leading figures in the AI revolution have done a less than convincing job in recent attempts to explain why a job creation boom is all but assured.
雷蒙多表示，她相信人工智能从长远来看会创造大量新的就业机会——这些是今天我们还无法想象的职位。“我相信几年后，人工智能会像其他技术一样，创造出更多的就业机会。但我认为我们需要一个有计划的过渡期。否则，如果我们盲目地引入这项新技术，却不制定任何让所有美国人都能从中受益的计划，那么就会出现我们刚才讨论的那种糟糕局面……我对市场在没有任何重大干扰的情况下引导我们完成这一过渡过程持怀疑态度。”
Raimondo says she is a believer in long-term net job creation from AI — jobs that we cannot imagine today. "I believe in some number of years AI, like every other technology, will create new jobs, more jobs. I really do, but we need a planned transition. Otherwise, if we put our blinders on and just unleash the new technology without a plan to bring every American along, then I think you'll see what we just talked about, ... I don't have faith in the market to lead us through this transition without a major disruption," she said.
她对人工智能技术快速发展可能对劳动力市场造成的负面影响的担忧，至少部分源于她在卸任拜登政府商务部长职务后与多位企业首席执行官的对话。她说：“当我离开政府后，美国各大企业的首席执行官们纷纷联系我，表示他们非常担心人工智能和机器人技术会导致大规模的就业流失。不仅有一两个企业CEO，而是很多CEO都打来电话，仿佛在问我：‘你们打算采取什么措施来应对这个问题？’”
Her fears about a troubling AI transition period for the labor market stem at least partially from conversations she has had with CEOs after leaving her post as President Biden's Commerce Secretary. "When I got out of the government, CEOs of major U.S. corporations started to call me, saying that they were worried about massive job losses that could be coming because of AI and robotics. Not one or two CEOs, but a number would call, and almost as if to say, what are you going to do about that?"
在她看来，那些由前沿研究机构研发出的“恶意人工智能系统”所引发的人类生存危机，与劳动力市场面临的风险是紧密相关的；在她看来，所有这些危险现象都表明人类在发展人工智能技术时缺乏足够的规划与准备。
The recent fears of an AI-triggered existential crisis for humanity brought about by a widening set of breaches by rogue agents from leading frontier labs isn't detached as an issue in Raimondo's thinking from the risks in the job market. In her mind, all the dangers are potential signs of moving too fast without enough planning.
在OpenAI和Anthropic公布相关研究结果后，Raimondo在LinkedIn上发文指出：“我们已经目睹了太多危险事件的发生。”她写道：“如果我们不认真对待人工智能可能带来的各种危害，也不积极研究哪些政策和措施最为有效，那么我们必将失败。由于这些技术的发展速度远超我们的预期，我们必须确保它们能够被安全地应用，否则它们将导致大规模的失业，进而对我们的民主制度和社会结构造成不可挽回的破坏。”
In a recent LinkedIn post after the revelations from OpenAI and Anthropic, Raimondo wrote that "we've seen too many dangerous incidents across a range of models." "If we don't take all the potential harms of AI seriously – and do a lot more work to figure out what policies and programs are most effective – we will lose. As these capabilities develop faster than we thought, we have to make sure they are safe to adopt and do not lead to massive unemployment or we will irreparably damage our democracy and social fabric," she wrote.
推荐一位候选人入选2027年CNBC“变革者”榜单（Changemakers List）： Raimondo曾与前印第安纳州州长Eric Holcomb共同创立了Raise Us组织，旨在通过将私人资本与政府力量结合起来，为可能面临失业风险的劳动者制定解决方案。最初参与该项目的公司包括亚马逊（Amazon）、Anthropic、微软（Microsoft）、AMD、ADP、美国银行（Bank of America）、黑石集团（Blackstone）、思科（Cisco）、礼来公司（Eli Lilly）、通用汽车（GM）、IBM、万事达卡（Mastercard）和联合包裹服务公司（UPS）等。
Nominate a leader for the 2027 CNBC Changemakers list. Raimondo co-founded Raise Us with former Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb to bring about the "best-case scenario" for this period, connecting private capital to government to create solutions for workers ahead of potential displacement. Amazon, Anthropic, Microsoft, AMD, ADP, Bank of America, Blackstone, Cisco, Eli Lilly, GM, IBM, Mastercard and UPS are among companies initially involved with the effort. "Bring employers to the table and convince them to implement AI in a way that ensures the bottom doesn't fall out overnight among tens of millions of Americans," she said.
她表示：“把雇主请到谈判桌前，说服他们以一种确保数千万美国人的生活底线不会在一夜之间崩溃的方式来实施人工智能。我们要让州长们坐到谈判桌前改变政策，以便我们能够平稳过渡到人工智能经济。”到目前为止，该组织正与阿肯色州、犹他州、马里兰州和康涅狄格州这四个州的商界和州长开展合作。
"We get governors to the table to change policies so that we have a planned transition to an AI economy." To date, the organization is working with business and governors in four states — Arkansas, Utah, Maryland and Connecticut. "Maybe today it's call center workers. Maybe two years from now it's something else.
“也许今天是呼叫中心工人。两年后可能是其他岗位。但我们必须重新调整我们的政策，包括激励措施、培训、离职补偿、薪资税……我们必须让他们为代理式经济做好准备。”正在州一级进行测试的想法包括：为二十出头、对职业道路感到迷茫的美国年轻人设立“服役年”项目，以此作为通往全职岗位的敲门砖；建立新型失业保险模式；为失业人员提供新型薪资补贴和再培训，特别是针对那些可能面临失业风险且难以转型从事薪资相当的新职业的50多岁工人。
But we just have to kind of reset our policies of incentives, of training, of severance, of payroll taxes. ... We have to get them ready for an agentic economy." The ideas being tested at the state level include year-of-service programs for young Americans not sure of their career path in their early 20s as a gateway to a full-time position, new models of unemployment insurance, new forms of salary support and retraining for the jobless and in particular for workers in their 50s who may be at risk of losing jobs and in a poor position to transition into new careers with comparable pay.
该组织还将审视我们对劳动力征税的方式。“目前，如果你是一个雇主，你需要为每一名员工缴纳薪资税。而你为人工智能代理则无需支付任何费用，因此你的动机会变成解雇员工、省去薪资税，进而使用代理……这就是我所说的改变激励机制，”雷蒙多说道。
And it will take a look at how we tax labor. "Right now, if you're an employer, you pay a payroll tax for every employee. You pay nothing for an agent, so your incentive is to get rid of your employees, not pay that payroll tax. And use agents. ...
雷蒙多去年6月在“Raise Us”成立之际曾对CNBC表示，因失业而流离失所的年长工人是她个人非常关注的群体，这源于她父亲的经历——她的父亲在制造业度过了辉煌的职业生涯后，却因外包而措手不及，且缺乏通往新职业的过渡桥梁。
That's my point about changing incentives," Raimondo said. Raimondo previously told CNBC at the time of the launch of Raise Us last June that older workers displaced from jobs are of personal interest to her based on her father's experience after a great career as a manufacturing worker being blindsided by outsourcing and lacking a bridge to a new career.
美国的劳动力体系已经过时了。失业保险制度是在100年前的大萧条时期建立的，至今仍未进行过任何修改。大学教育体系也是如此——想想美国每年在大学学费补贴、助学金以及学生贷款上投入了多少钱吧。然而，这种教育体系对大多数美国学生来说其实并没有起到应有的帮助；但我们仍然继续往这个体系中投入大量资金。
"America's workforce system is old. It is old-fashioned. Unemployment insurance was created 100 years ago in the Great Depression and hasn't been changed. The college system. Think of how much money this country spends to subsidize attendance in college. Pell grants, college subsidies, college loans. College mostly doesn't work for most American students, but yet we keep shoveling money into that.
二战后的“GI法案”（为退伍军人提供的福利计划）曾经起到过积极作用，但自那以后该制度也一直没有再做过任何调整。那么，我该怎么做呢？我想利用人工智能正在改变一切这一事实，来推动这些政策的改革，让每一个美国人都能够在人工智能驱动的经济体系中找到属于自己的位置、实现成功。虽然雷蒙多承认这是一个非常严重的问题，但她对国会或企业高管们单独解决这个问题的能力缺乏信心。
It worked for the GI Bill after the Second World War. Hasn't been changed since. So what do I want to do? I want to use the fact that AI is changing everything to start changing these policies so that every single American can thrive and have a place in an AI economy." While Raimondo concedes that it's "a monster problem," she says that in the immediate years ahead she has little faith in Congress or the CEO class alone to solve the problem.
“国会根本不会采取任何行动。他们什么都不会做。”她说，“关于很多事情我都没有信心，但我敢打赌：在未来三年内，国会不会通过任何真正能够帮助美国工人的、具有跨党派支持的立法。这根本不可能发生。”
"Congress isn't going to do a damn thing. Congress does nothing. There's not a lot of things about which I'm confident, but I would bet you a lot of money that Congress won't pass effective bipartisan legislation helping American workers in the next three years.
虽然有些企业高管能够意识到问题的严重性，但还有很多高管仍然视而不见。
It's just not going to happen," she said. And while some CEOs "get it," she says there are plenty of others who don't.
“我正在建立一个由那些愿意改变现状的人组成的联盟……这些高管和董事会成员都明白未来会发生什么，他们愿意尝试新的方法、勇于创新，并做出正确的决策，”雷蒙多说道，“但很多企业高管却仍然坚持‘不，我还是会继续做我一直以来都在做的事情——即追求短期利润和股价的上涨’。”她补充道：“现在的激励机制就是促使企业尽快裁员。”请继续关注……
"I'm building a coalition of the willing. ... These are CEOs and boards that have said we know what's coming, and we want to experiment and be innovative and do the right thing," Raimondo said. "Many CEOs you call say 'No, no, I'm just gonna do what I always do, which is maximize short-term profit and short-term share price.'" "The incentive now is to hit the layoff button." Follow and