现在正是游说者的好时光。特朗普总统的政策引发了游说开支的激增,当然,随之而来的还有政治捐款和潜在的腐败。这就是他常说的那个“沼泽”,只不过是强力升级版。对国家而言是个坏消息、对游说者而言则是好消息的是,随着特朗普的关税和产业政策在其最后两年中不断扩大,我们很可能会看到更多的游说活动。
It’s a great time to be a lobbyist. President Trump’s policies have led to an explosion of spending on lobbying — and, of course, the political donations and potential corruption that come with it. It’s “the swamp” he always talks about, but on steroids. The bad news for the country, which is good news for lobbyists, is that we will likely see even more lobbying activity as Trump’s tariffs and industrial policies expand in his last two years.
游说是一项受宪法保护的活动,由第一修正案确立。“国会不得制定……剥夺人民和平集会以及向政府请愿伸冤的权利的法律。”民主社会的公民需要具备就关切事项向政府“请愿”的能力,尤其是当政府的行为对他们产生影响时。
Lobbying is a constitutionally protected activity established in the First Amendment. “Congress shall make no law respecting… the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”Citizens of a democratic society need the ability to “petition the Government” about matters of concern, especially when government’s actions affect them.
游说有其积极的一面。一些游说者是各自领域的专家,能够为民选官员和官僚提供重要的信息和见解,从而完善任何潜在的立法。但大多数美国人对此持有负面看法,认为它带有裙带风气、权钱交易甚至买卖选票的嫌疑。例如,皮尤研究中心在2023年写道:“两党的大多数民众还表示,议员选区内的游说者、特殊利益集团和大雇主拥有过大的影响力。”
There is a positive side to lobbying. Some lobbyists are experts in their fields and can provide elected officials and bureaucrats with important information and insights that can improve any potential legislation. But most Americans have a negative view, believing it smacks of favoritism, influence-peddling and even vote-buying. For example, the Pew Research Center wrote in 2023, “Majorities in both parties also say lobbyists, special interests and large employers in lawmakers’ districts have too much influence.”
然而,一个令人沮丧的事实是:政府花的钱越多、越是将手伸向我们生活的方方面面——而且两党政客都在越来越多地做这两件事——受影响的人就会在游说上花越多的钱,以获得他们偏好的结果。
Yet the sad fact is the more money the government spends and inserts itself into all aspects of our lives — and politicians from both parties are increasingly doing more of both — the more those affected will spend on lobbying to gain their preferred outcome.
根据追踪游说活动的非营利组织“公开的秘密”(Open Secrets)的数据,特朗普重返白宫的第一年迎来了有史以来最高的游说支出:51.3亿美元。这比拜登总统在任的最后一年增加了15.4%。而且,2026年看起来有望超过2025年,仅前两个季度的游说支出就达到了27.2亿美元。
According to Open Secrets, a nonprofit organization that tracks lobbying, Trump’s first year back in office saw the most money ever spent on lobbying: $5.13 billion. That was a 15.4 percent increase in spending over President Biden’s last year in office. And 2026 looks like it could surpass 2025, with $2.72 billion spent in the first two quarters.
游说支出在十年间基本持平,从2010年的35亿美元维持到2020年的35.3亿美元。拜登在白宫的四年间,支出每年略有增加,从37.8亿美元增至44.5亿美元。但一旦特朗普入主白宫,支出必然会激增,因为他的支出政策、关税和监管变革对几乎每个行业和消费者都产生负面影响——更不用说几乎所有其他国家了。系统运作如下:一旦总统或国会决定采取措施,无论是通过行政命令还是立法,影响行业、公司、组织或消费者,受影响者会寻求其行业协会和游说团体的帮助。
Spending on lobbying remained relatively flat for a decade, from $3.5 billion in 2010 to $3.53 billion in 2020. Spending increased slightly each of Biden’s four years in the White House, from $3.78 billion to $4.45 billion. But it was bound to explode once Trump got in office because his spending, tariffs and regulatory changes negatively impact almost every industry and consumer — not to mention almost every other country. Here’s how the system works: Once a president or Congress decides to take steps, either by an executive order or through legislation, that affect industries, companies, organizations or consumers, those affected will reach out to their trade associations and lobbying groups for assistance.
游说人员开始介入议题,通常鼓励客户向相关当选官员捐款。关键人物可能前往华盛顿与当选官员及其幕僚会面,常通过宴请等方式阐述己方立场。此类活动可能持续数月甚至数年,耗资数千至数百万美元不等。资金不一定能买到选票,但往往能买到“接触机会”。我们在当前关于人工智能和加密货币的辩论中看到了这一切。
The lobbyists begin working the issue, often encouraging their clients to make contributions to the appropriate elected officials. Key people may travel to Washington to meet with elected officials and their staffs, often wining and dining, in order to explain their side of the issue. This activity can go on for months, or years, and cost thousands if not millions of dollars. The money does not necessarily buy a vote, but it often buys access. We’re seeing all of that in the current debate over artificial intelligence and crypto currencies.
特朗普的关税波及大量公司和消费者。因此,游说支出从去年年初开始增加。这完全可以理解。如果你经营一家大公司,新关税或法规可能迫使你裁减数百甚至数千名员工。或者你被迫涨价,让消费者更难负担你的产品或服务。《凯利蓝皮书》报告称,特朗普对汽车行业征收的关税增加了300亿美元额外成本,导致平均零售价格上涨10.4%。
Trump’s tariffs affect a large swath of companies and consumers. So, spending on lobbying began increasing early last year. And understandably so. If you run a major company, new tariffs or regulations could force you to lay off hundreds or even thousands of employees. Or you could be forced to raise prices, making it even harder for consumers to buy your product or service. Kelly Blue Book reports Trump’s tariffs imposed on the automotive industry an extra $30 billion in additional costs, leading to an average retail price increase of 10.4 percent.
首席执行官有权利,甚至有责任,挑战可能损害其公司及赖以生存的就业岗位的武断和不公正立法或法规。
A CEO has a right, even a duty, to challenge arbitrary and unjust legislation or regulations that could undermine his or her company and the jobs that depend on it.
哪些政府机构最受说客们的关注?彭博社关于2025年的报道称:“登记备案增长幅度最大的是美国贸易代表办公室、美国副总统办公室以及国家经济委员会。”这并不令人意外。此外,如果政府在发放大量的纳税人资金——特朗普政府确实如此——许多公司就会花钱请说客去接触关键人物,以确保自己能分得一杯羹。当然,一些公司正在绕过说客,因为他们发现了一条捷径。
Which government agencies are receiving most of the lobbyists’ attention? Bloomberg reports for 2025, “The largest increases in filings targeted the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, the Office of the Vice President of the U.S., and the National Economic Council.”No surprises there. In addition, if the government is handing out lots of taxpayer money — and the Trump administration is — many companies pay lobbyists to reach out to the right people to ensure the companies get a share. Of course, some companies are bypassing lobbyists because they’ve discovered a shortcut.
据报道,他们让总统的儿子埃里克和小唐纳德担任顾问或董事会成员,支付给他们极其丰厚的报酬,尽管他们几乎没有什么专业知识。不久我们便看到,其中一些公司获得了一项重大的政府合同。正如前面所提到的,这种资金的自由流动不一定就会导致腐败,但它确实有可能。更重要的是,选民越来越认为它会导致腐败。
They’re reportedly making the president’s sons, Eric and Don Jr., an advisor or board member, paying them very lucrative sums even when they have little expertise. Soon we read some of those companies were awarded a major government contract. As mentioned previously, this free flow of money doesn’t necessarily lead to corruption, but it can. More importantly, voters increasingly think it does.
盖洛普最近报道称:“美国人对美国政府腐败的感知达到了20年来的最高水平,89%的美国成年人认为腐败普遍存在。”特朗普过去“抽干沼泽”的承诺现在看来已经是2016年的老黄历了。这片通常与游说和权钱交易联系在一起的沼泽——从来没有像现在这样大,也从来没有这么污浊。特朗普喜欢提及在他的政府领导下所有那些发展势头良好的行业。也许他应该把游说业也加进去。
Gallup recently reported, “Americans’ perceptions of government corruption in the U.S. are at their highest level in 20 years, with 89% of U.S. adults saying it is widespread.”Trump’s past pledge to “drain the swamp” now seems so 2016. The swamp — which is often associated with lobbying and influence peddling — has never been bigger, or swampier. Trump likes to mention all the industries he says are doing so well under his administration. Maybe he should include lobbying.
梅里尔·马修斯(Merrill Matthews)是“我们的共和党遗产”(Our Republican Legacy)组织德克萨斯州的主席。
Merrill Matthews is the Texas state chair of Our Republican Legacy.