在选举日之前的几个月里，民主党和共和党的策略师们像研究“风险”（Risk）游戏一样仔细研究参议院的选情地图，决定在哪些地方展开关键争夺，因为这些地方的胜负可能直接决定两党在参议院的掌控权。
Months before Election Day, Democratic and Republican strategists pore over the Senate map like a game of Risk, deciding where to wage the fights that could determine control.
第一类是“摇摆州”（swing states）：在这些州，选民的投票倾向非常不稳定，他们可能会因为有利的外部条件、强有力的候选人或及时的资金支持而改变投票方向。第二类是那些在某些情况下某一方有可能获胜的州。
The top tier consists of swing states, where a closely divided electorate could be nudged either way by favorable conditions, a strong candidate or a timely infusion of cash. The second tier consists of states where one side might have a shot if everything goes its way. Then there’s the third tier: states that barely warrant a conversation.
第三类则是那些几乎无需关注的州——在这些州，双方获胜的可能性都很小；反对党多年来从未在该州赢得过选举，而且可供选择的候选人也非常有限。
These are places no one expects to be close, where the opposing party hasn’t won statewide in years and there’s a thin bench of plausible candidates.
在正常情况下，堪萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州和密西西比州几乎不会被列入民主党的参议院争夺范围。但最近的民意调查显示，民主党在这些州的竞争形势异常激烈。就连纳特·西尔弗（Nate Silver）也称这些选举结果“有些奇怪”。
In a normal year, Kansas, South Carolina and Mississippi would barely on the Democratic Senate map. But recent polls show Democrats running surprisingly close in all three. Even Nate Silver recently called the results “a little weird.
尽管如此，民主党要想在南部腹地和广大平原地区（Deep South and Great Plains）取得压倒性胜利的难度仍然很大。正如每年这个时候人们常说的那样，任何民意调查的结果都比不上选民在投票箱前的实际选择。不过，共和党现在不得不投入大量时间和资金去争夺那些本应属于他们的州。
The odds are still stacked against Democrats sweeping through the Deep South and Great Plains. And, as everyone says this time of year, no poll matters as much as what happens at the ballot box. But Republicans are now forced to spend time and money defending states that should have been easy wins.
下面我们来详细分析一下为什么堪萨斯州、密西西比州和南卡罗来纳州的选情变得如此激烈：南卡罗来纳州的情况最为典型：该州自1932年以来从未选出过民主党参议员，两年前唐纳德·特朗普总统还以16个百分点的优势赢得了该州的选举。然而，民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿（Adam Hamilton）——一位联合卫理公会的牧师，也是首次参选的人——将本应是一场毫无悬念的共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔（Roger Marshall）的连任选举，变成了一场真正的竞争。
Here’s a closer look at why Kansas, Mississippi and South Carolina have become unexpectedly competitive. is the clearest case. The state hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and President Donald Trump carried it by 16 points just two years ago. But Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor and first-time candidate, has turned what should have been a sleepy re-election for Republican Sen. Roger Marshall into a real contest. Kansas also has a history of bucking its deep-red reputation.
堪萨斯州也有“打破自身红色保守派传统”的历史：该州经常选出民主党州长；2022年，选民以近20个百分点的优势否决了剥夺该州堕胎权利的提案。总之，这些州的选情变得异常激烈，令人意外。
It regularly elects Democratic governors, and in 2022, voters rejected an effort to strip abortion rights from the state constitution by nearly 20 points. That doesn’t make Kansas a swing state.
这并不意味着堪萨斯州是一个“摇摆州”（即选举结果难以预测的州）；不过，这一情况确实表明该州存在相当数量的温和派及独立选民，他们愿意脱离共和党的阵营——这也是为什么这场选举的胜负可能比该州通常被视为“共和党优势明显”的情况更为胶着的原因之一。
But it does reveal a sizable bloc of moderate and independent-minded voters willing to break with the GOP — one reason this race may be closer than the state’s red reputation suggests.
虽然堪萨斯州在政治倾向上属于“共和党优势明显”的地区，但其庞大的黑人选民群体为民主党提供了坚实的选民基础。在该州，黑人选民在所有合格选民中所占的比例高于其他任何州，这使得一些全州范围的选举结果比该州的党派倾向所显示的更为复杂（即选举结果更加难以预测）。
is ruby red, but its unusually large Black electorate gives Democrats a substantial base. Black voters make up a larger share of eligible voters there than in any other state helping keep some statewide races closer than the state’s partisan reputation might suggest.
民主党在堪萨斯州还拥有一位非常合适的候选人：斯科特·科洛姆（Scott Colom）。他是密西西比州第七代居民，同时担任地方检察官，以支持执法工作的立场参选民主党。在最近一个季度的竞选活动中，科洛姆在选民支持率上超过了共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯（Cindy Hyde-Smith）；此外，他还获得了皮特·布蒂吉格（Pete Buttigieg）的支持，后者呼吁民主党将竞选范围扩展到密西西比州。
Democrats also have an unusually well-suited candidate in Scott Colom, a seventh-generation Mississippian and district attorney running as a pro-law-enforcement Democrat. Colom outraised Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in the most recently reported quarter and has drawn the endorsement of Pete Buttigieg who is urging Democrats to expand their map to include Mississippi.
南卡罗来纳州：自1998年以来，南卡罗来纳州从未选出过民主党参议员。目前，民主党候选人安妮·安德鲁斯（Annie Andrews）与共和党参议员达琳·格雷厄姆（Darline Graham）的竞争异常激烈。达琳·格雷厄姆是已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆（Lindsey Graham）的妹妹。在她哥哥去世后，州长亨利·麦克马斯特（Henry McMaster）任命格雷厄姆接任其参议员职位，而特朗普也在共和党初选中支持了她。
South Carolina South Carolina has not elected a Democratic senator since 1998. But Democrat Annie Andrews is running neck and neck with Republican Sen. Darline Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. After her brother’s death, Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Graham to fill his seat, and Trump backed her through a contentious Republican primary.
不过民调显示，这场选举的胜负基本势均力敌，原本应该属于共和党的“必胜之战”，却演变成了一场南卡罗来纳州16年来未曾见过的激烈全州范围大选。
But polls show the race as essentially tied, turning what should have been a Republican coronation into the kind of statewide general election contest South Carolina hasn’t seen in 16 years.
南卡罗来纳州的这场选举可能是这三场选举中最受候选人个人因素影响的：新上任的参议员、充满争议的初选过程，以及尚未形成明确投票倾向的选民群体，都是决定选举结果的关键因素。对于其他两场选举，共和党或许也能找到合理的解释（例如堪萨斯州的温和选民倾向、密西西比州庞大的黑人选民群体等）。然而，当三个原本被认为“共和党必胜”的州同时呈现出竞争激烈的态势时，最简单的解释或许是：共和党在整个全国范围内的处境都变得更加艰难了。
South Carolina may prove to be the most candidate-specific of the three races: a newly appointed senator, a contentious primary and a still-unsettled electorate may be the key factors. Republicans can explain away the other races, too. Kansas has a moderate streak, while Mississippi has an unusually large Black electorate. But when three supposedly safe Republican states all look competitive at once, the simplest explanation may be that Republicans are struggling more broadly.
当然，历史要求我们对红州那些惊人的民主党民调数据保持怀疑。2016年，民调严重低估了共和党人的支持率，而在2020年则更是如此。但在2018年和2022年的中期选举中，它们的表现要好得多。它们现在可能依然低估了共和党人的投票率，或者存在其他方面的疏漏。
Of course, history demands skepticism of eye-popping Democratic numbers in red states. Polls badly underestimated Republican support in 2016 and even more dramatically in 2020. But they performed considerably better in the 2018 and 2022 midterms. They may be underestimating Republican turnout now, or have some other oversight.
值得注意的是，目前已经是9月下旬，民调结果并未出现收紧。自本月初以来，民主党在国会泛选投票中的优势一直在扩大，而深红的共和党阵地内的竞争差距也一直持续存在。
What is notable now is that it is already late September, and the polling has not tightened. Democrats’ advantage on the generic ballot has grown since the beginning of the month, while competitive margins in deep-red Republican territory have persisted.
这并不意味着堪萨斯州、南卡罗来纳州或密西西比州正在变成摇摆州，更谈不上变成蓝州。民主党人或许无法赢得这些议席中的任何一个。但当共和党人被迫在他们通常无需防守的地方进行战斗时，这或许是对全国其他地区选情最清晰的线索之一，它就藏在显眼之处。
None of this means Kansas, South Carolina or Mississippi is turning purple, much less blue. Democrats may not win any of these seats. But when Republicans are forced to fight in places they normally would not have to defend, that may be one of the clearest clues about the races in the rest of the country, hiding in plain sight.
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