拉美最大经济体8月创造的就业岗位超出预期，在选民投票前几天为总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦送上了一份令人振奋的经济数据。
By Beatriz Reis Latin America’s biggest economy created more jobs than expected in August, handing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva an upbeat economic data point just days before voters head to the polls.
根据政府周二公布的数据，巴西上个月创造了165,827个正式工作岗位，高于彭博社分析师调查的所有预期，此前市场对8月份新增岗位的预估中值为106,900个。其中，服务业和建筑业占了新增就业的大多数。
Brazil generated 165,827 formal jobs last month, higher than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of analysts where the median forecast expected 106,900 new positions for August. Services and construction accounted for most of the hiring, according to government data released Tuesday.
尽管整体经济增速放缓，但巴西劳动力市场依然保持了相当大的韧性。较低的失业率和稳健的工资水平为卢拉在第一轮投票前营造了一个相对有利的背景。不过，更广泛的经济前景并不那么令人放心。
Brazil’s labor market has remained quit resilient even as the broader economy loses steam, with low unemployment and firm wages providing Lula with a relatively favorable backdrop heading into the first round. Still, the broader economic picture is less reassuring.
经济增长正在失去动能，9月初通货膨胀加速超出预期，这使得现任总统说服选民财务状况正在改善的努力变得复杂，尽管政府采取了旨在缓冲家庭免受高借贷成本和油价上涨影响的措施。
Growth is losing momentum and inflation accelerated more than expected in early September, complicating the incumbent’s effort to persuade voters that their finances are improving despite government measures aimed at cushioning households from high borrowing costs and rising oil prices.
这些相互矛盾的信号也让央行下一步的行动变得扑朔迷离。以加布里埃尔·加利波洛（Gabriel Galípolo）为首的决策者在9月份连续第五次将塞尔利克（Selic）基准利率下调至13.75%，但对下一步行动几乎没有给出明确指引，并重申任何进一步放松货币政策的步伐和规模都将取决于即将公布的数据。
Those conflicting signals are also complicating the central bank’s next move. Policymakers led by Gabriel Galípolo cut the Selic rate for a fifth consecutive meeting in September, to 13.75%, but offered little guidance on what comes next, reiterating that the pace and size of any further easing will depend on incoming data.
现在，大选本身正在成为另一个变数。巴西人将于10月4日投票，在卢拉与保守派挑战者弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗（Flávio Bolsonaro）之间展开激烈角逐，投资者不仅在关注谁会获胜，还在关注市场（尤其是雷亚尔）将如何反应。大选后如果出现急剧抛售，可能会缩小央行继续降息的空间，而温和的反应则可能为进一步放松货币政策敞开大门。
Now the election itself is becoming another variable. Brazilians vote Oct. 4 in a tight race between Lula and conservative challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, and investors are watching not just who wins, but how markets — particularly the real — respond. A sharp post-election selloff could reduce the central bank’s room to keep cutting, while a benign reaction could leave the door open to further easing.