作者：保拉·塞利格森（Paula Seligson）和埃莉诺·邓肯（Eleanor Duncan）派拉蒙天穹公司（Paramount Skydance Corp.）承诺在三年内削减60亿美元的成本，以期为其对华纳兄弟探索公司（Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.）的重磅收购锁定贷款方。
By Paula Seligson and Eleanor Duncan Paramount Skydance Corp. is promising to cut $6 billion in costs within three years as it looks to lock in lenders for its blockbuster Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. acquisition.
本周，该公司一直在推销一笔规模高达520亿美元的庞大贷款和债券组合，其中包括高收益债券和投资级债券。尽管该公司在路演时展示的盈利和债务水平通常只见于垃圾债资助的私募股权收购中。根据彭博新闻社看到的债务发售文件，这一投资逻辑在很大程度上依赖于成本节约的实现，这将使按年计算的息税折旧摊销前预期利润（EBITDA）从之前的127亿美元增至187亿美元。
The company has been marketing a massive $52 billion package of loans and bonds split between both high-yield and investment-grade tranches this week, even as it pitches earnings and debt levels normally seen in junk-funded private equity buyouts. The investment thesis relies heavily on achieving the cost savings, which would boost expected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization to $18.7 billion on an annualized basis, up from $12.7 billion previously, according to debt offering documents seen by Bloomberg News.
文件显示，这些节约成本的策略包括整合两家公司的企业软件和技术系统、以及削减房地产占地面积等，这将有助于降低杠杆率。随着该公司朝着实现投资级信用指标的目标迈进，这一衡量债务与盈利关系的的关键指标预计将降至约4.4倍。
The savings, from strategies including combining the two companies’ enterprise software and technology systems, and cutting their real estate footprint, would help lower leverage. This key measure of debt to earnings is set to come in at about 4.4 times, as the company targets a path to investment-grade credit metrics, the documents showed.
然而，由于该业务正疲于应对不断变化的消费者习惯，并试图维持每年在院线发行30部电影的协议，实现承诺的削减额伴随着巨大的执行风险。如果该公司在削减这些成本方面遇到任何麻烦，杠杆率将维持在与高收益评级企业相符的高位。
But achieving the promised cuts comes with significant execution risk as the business grapples with changing consumer habits and tries to uphold an agreement to release 30 movies a year in cinemas. If the company has any trouble cutting those costs, leverage will remain at elevated levels in line with high-yield rated businesses.
CreditSights分析师亨特·马丁（Hunter Martin）和布莱恩·麦肯纳（Brian McKenna）在周一的一份报告中写道：“大型传媒并购的历史记录糟糕透顶。”他们将协同效应目标和时间表描述为“非常激进”。他们写道，对于派拉蒙能否在内生增长的基础上，实现2028年约3.75倍、2029年约3倍的目标杠杆率，他们依然“高度怀疑”。
“The track record for media mega-mergers is abysmal,” wrote CreditSights analysts Hunter Martin and Brian McKenna in a report on Monday, describing the synergy target and timeline as “very aggressive.”They remained “highly skeptical” that Paramount can hit its target leverage levels of about 3.75 times in 2028 and about three times in 2029 on an organic basis, they wrote.
首席执行官大卫·埃里森承诺，其家族（控制着派拉蒙）将竭尽所能使公司的杠杆率保持在预测范围内，CreditSights 认为该家族的存在是“关键下行支撑”。尽管执行风险依然存在，但派拉蒙 2024 年与天空之舞传媒的合并表明该公司过去曾实现过节省成本。“天空之舞最初的目标是从合并中每年实现约 20 亿美元的效率提升，但此后这一数字已增至 30 亿美元以上，”彭博情报 8 月写道。“这种执行力为拟议中的华纳兄弟收购案提供了重要的佐证，”他们写道。
Chief Executive Officer David Ellison has pledged that his family — which controls Paramount — would do what it takes to keep the company’s leverage in line with forecasts, and CreditSights viewed the presence of the clan as a “key downside support.”While execution risk remains, Paramount’s 2024 merger with Skydance Media shows the company has been able to achieve savings in the past. “Skydance initially targeted roughly $2 billion of annual efficiencies from the combination, but that has since risen to more than $3 billion,” Bloomberg Intelligence wrote in August. “That execution provides an important proof point” for the proposed Warner Bros. acquisition, they wrote.
穆迪评级、标准普尔全球评级和惠誉评级通常基于自身假设计算债务与收益比率，三家均预计收购完成后杠杆率将在 7 倍左右。
Moody’s Ratings, S&P Global Ratings, and Fitch Ratings, which often calculate debt-to-earnings based on their own assumptions, all expect leverage to be in the range of roughly 7 times after the completion of the acquisition.
派拉蒙发言人拒绝置评。美国银行和阿波罗全球管理公司的发言人也拒绝置评，而花旗集团的代表未立即回应置评请求。这三家机构正在主导债务交易。
A representative for Paramount declined to comment. Spokespeople for Bank of America Corp. and Apollo Global Management Inc. also declined to comment, while representatives for Citigroup Inc. didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The three are leading the debt transaction.