如果美联储内部有人在寻找反对再次加息的证据，他们很难从周三公布的数据中找到支持，因为该数据预计将显示持续的价格压力，且消费者依然在继续支出。
If anyone at the Federal Reserve is looking for evidence arguing against another interest rate hike, they're unlikely to get it in data due Wednesday that is expected to show ongoing price pressures and consumers who nevertheless continue to spend.
根据道琼斯调查的普遍预期，作为央行决策者首选的通胀指标，个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数预计在整体和核心层面（后者剔除了食品和能源成本）均环比上涨0.3%。
The personal consumption expenditures price index, the primary inflation gauge for central bank policymakers, is expected to show increases of 0.3% at both the all-items and core levels, the latter of which excludes food and energy costs, according to the Dow Jones consensus.
从年率来看，这两个价格水平预计分别上涨3.7%和3.3%，与7月持平，且仍远高于美联储2%的目标。换句话说，几乎没有迹象表明通胀会在短期内消退。
On an annual basis, the price levels are expected to show increases of 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively, unchanged from July and still well above the Fed's 2% target. In other words, there's little indication that inflation is going to abate anytime soon.
安联贸易公司高级经济学家丹·诺斯（Dan North）表示：“美联储看到这一点会说，‘瞧，核心通胀没有下降，而且我没有任何预期或理由相信它会以某种令人信服的方式开始回落。’它仍然远高于目标……所以我认为通胀已经根深蒂固，以至于美联储无法忽视它或将其轻描淡写地解释过去。”美联储官员在9月的会议上批准加息25个基点，并预计年底前可能还会加息一次。
"The Fed is going to look at this and say, 'Hey, you know, the core is not moving, and I don't have any expectations or anything to believe that it's going to start going back down in any sort of convincing way,'" said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade. "It's still way above target ... So I think it's really embedded in there to the extent that the Fed is not going to be able to ignore it or explain it away." Fed officials at their September meeting approved a quarter percentage point rate increase and penciled in the likelihood of another by the end of the year.
在提供预测的18位联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）官员中，除两人外，其余所有人都在上调其PCE通胀预期共识的同时，暗示他们预计在2026年至少还会有一次加息行动。
All but two of the 18 Federal Open Market Committee officials who provided forecasts indicated they expect at least one more move in 2026 as they raised their consensus PCE inflation outlook.
美联储主席凯文·沃尔什本月早些时候在新闻发布会上表示，招聘数据以及企业投资和私营部门收入表明经济状况良好。
Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said at his news conference earlier this month that hiring data along with business investment and private sector earnings show the economy in good shape.
沃尔什说：“我很难将广泛的金融状况描述为紧缩的。”金融状况是美联储调整利率政策的重要输入变量。
"I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive," Warsh said. Financial conditions are an important input for how the Fed calibrates rate policy.
同样，美联储主席迈克尔·巴尔周二表示，关税以及与伊朗的长期冲突已经“使我们实现2%通胀目标的进程受到了阻碍”。他还补充说：“目前我尚未看到通胀能够及时回升至2%的明确趋势。”因此，巴尔重申了他认为美联储可能需要继续加息的立场，不过他并未具体说明加息的幅度。9月份的加息行动将美联储的基准利率区间上调至3.75%至4%。
Similarly, Fed Governor Michael Barr said Tuesday that the combination of tariffs and the prolonged war with Iran has meant "we have been knocked off course on our progress toward our 2% goal." Moreover, he added, "I don't yet see a clear trend toward a timely return to 2%." Consequently, Barr reiterated his belief that the Fed likely will need to continue to raise rates, though he did not specify a level. The September move put the central bank's borrowing benchmark in a range of 3.75%-4%.
“在我看来，可能需要进一步调整货币政策，以确保通胀能够及时降至目标水平，”他说。“我们希望支持经济实现可持续、稳定的增长，而价格稳定对于实现这一目标至关重要。”纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯指出了导致通胀持续存在的第三个因素：人工智能技术的发展及其对相关商品的需求。
"In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion," he said. "We want to support sustainable, durable growth in support of maximum employment, and price stability is crucial to that." New York Fed President John Williams noted a third contributor to persistent inflation: the artificial intelligence buildout and the associated demand for related goods.
“幸运的是，其他通胀指标的情况较为乐观，”他说。“住房服务的价格涨幅已经放缓，也没有迹象表明劳动力市场正在加剧通胀压力。”威廉姆斯还表示，关税对商品价格的影响已经基本消退。
"Fortunately, other indicators are more encouraging regarding the inflation outlook," he said. "Prices for housing services have decelerated, and there is no evidence that the labor market is adding to inflationary pressures." Williams added that the pressure on goods prices from tariffs has largely abated.
从政策角度来看，他的态度比巴尔更为温和，他表示“没有必要急于采取行动，我们有时间收集更多信息”。不过他也表示，预计今年可能还需要再次加息。
From a policy perspective, he spoke in more dovish terms than Barr, saying "there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information." However, he did say he expects "one further upward adjustment" of rates may be necessary this year.
周三发布的最新数据为通胀前景增添了新的不确定性：由于经济分析局（Bureau of Economic Analysis）将对之前的数据进行了修正，因此前几个月的通胀数据被下调了。
Wednesday's release adds a wrinkle into the inflation permutations: lower readings in prior months due to revisions the Bureau of Economic Analysis will apply retroactively.
具体而言，美国经济分析局（BEA）正在将其对法律服务、软件和计算机配件以及投资组合管理服务价格衡量方法的调整追溯至2021年。华尔街的各种估计显示，其结果是7月份个人消费支出（PCE）年度通胀读数可能会被向下修正两个或三个十分之一个百分点，12个月的读数可能会降至3%。
Specifically, the BEA is adjusting its methodology back to 2021 for how it measures prices for legal services, software and computer accessories and portfolio management services. The result is that PCE annual inflation readings for July are likely to be revised lower by two or three tenths of a percentage point, possibly taking the 12-month reading down to 3%, according to various Wall Street estimates.
这可能会改善过去的数据，而不一定会改变前方的道路，因为前景依然不明朗。
That could improve the rearview mirror look without necessarily changing the road ahead as the outlook remains cloudy.
例如，高盛预计，未来几个月的通胀数据将“在更加温和的趋势重新确立之前显得有些不太乐观”。任何通胀的回落都会让消费者感到宽慰，尽管持续的物价上涨导致消费者信心指数疲软，但他们仍在继续消费。
Goldman Sachs, for instance, expects that the next couple months of inflation data will be "somewhat less favorable before a more benign trend reasserts itself." Any retreat will come as a relief to consumers who, despite faltering sentiment readings amid the persistent price increases, are continuing to spend.
华尔街的共识是，8月份消费者支出将增长0.8%，这至少部分是汽油价格再次飙升的结果。在7月份，这一增幅仅为0.2%。尽管能源成本大幅跃升，但美国银行报告称消费依然强劲。
The Street consensus is for consumer spending to have risen 0.8% in August — the product at least in part of another surge in gas prices. In July, the increase was just 0.2%. Even with the jump in energy costs, Bank of America reported that spending has been strong.
截至9月19日的一周，借记卡和信用卡支出较去年同期增长了6.9%。这一增长很大程度上归因于汽油支出26.5%的激增。但即便剔除汽油，支出也增长了5.7%。
Debt and credit card spending rose 6.9% from a year ago for the week ended Sept. 19. A good part of that bump was a 26.5% surge in gasoline. But even with gas excluded, spending rose 5.7%.
对美联储而言，持续的通货膨胀与消费者依然有意愿且有能力消费相结合，并没有提供任何明显的理由来断定9月份的加息已经足够。市场正预计10月份加息的可能性很大，随后在12月或1月还会有一次加息。
For the Fed, that combination of persistent inflation alongside consumers still willing and able to spend offers little obvious reason to conclude that September's rate hike has done enough. Markets are pricing in a strong probability of an October rate hike with one to follow in either December or January.