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人工智能推动的1260亿美元债务狂潮终结台湾廉价资金时代AI-Fueled $126 Billion Debt Binge Ends Taiwan’s Cheap Money Era

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根据贝蒂·侯(Betty Hou)、艾琳·庄(Aileen Chuang)和珍妮丝·黄(Janice Huang)的报道,爱德华·林(Edward Lin)在过去一个月里联系了10家台湾银行,试图申请首套房抵押贷款,但最终一无所获。这位32岁的男子未能成功获得贷款。

By Betty Hou, Aileen Chuang and Janice Huang Edward Lin spent the past month reaching out to 10 Taiwanese banks for a first-home mortgage. The 32-year-old came away empty-handed.

一些银行表示他们的抵押贷款额度已经非常有限,因此提供了极高的贷款利率;另一些银行则要求他先成为该银行的财富管理客户才能获得贷款。无奈之下,他只好转向位于台湾西部苗栗县的一家农村农业信用合作社,以避免违反购房合同。

Some banks told him they had scant mortgage capacity left and offered steep rates, others required him to become a wealth management client first. Out of options, he turned to a rural agricultural credit union in Miaoli, in western Taiwan, to avoid defaulting on his purchase contract.

“我真的四处奔走,试图解决这个问题,”林说道。他是台湾科技中心新竹市的一名办公室职员。

“I’ve literally been scrambling everywhere just trying to sort this out,” said Lin, an office worker in the island’s technology hub Hsinchu. Lin’s ordeal illustrates how an unprecedented AI investment surge is squeezing Taiwan’s banking system.

林的遭遇反映了当前人工智能(AI)投资热潮对台湾银行业造成的压力:包括台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.)在内的许多企业的供应链合作伙伴正在以创纪录的速度申请贷款,用于营运资金的贷款增长速度几乎是抵押贷款的8倍。这种流动性压力是全球债务膨胀的缩影——企业纷纷借款用于建设数据中心,从而给银行带来了巨大压力。

Supply chain partners of firms including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. are snapping up loans at a record pace, with loans for working capital growing almost eight times faster than mortgages. The liquidity pressure mirrors a global debt binge with borrowing surging to fund data centers and pushing banks to their limits.

作为应对措施,台湾银行开始限制信贷发放、提高贷款利率,并减少对非科技企业的贷款支持,这导致了整个亚洲贷款市场的流动性紧张。零售储户纷纷提取存款或申请个人贷款,试图通过杠杆投资科技股票来获取收益,进一步加剧了市场的资金紧张状况。

In response, Taiwanese banks are now rationing credit, raising rates and squeezing lending to non-tech firms, creating a liquidity crunch that is rippling across the broader Asian loan market. Retail depositors are draining their savings or taking out personal loans to make leveraged bets on tech stocks, adding to the pressure.

“台湾的低利率时代已经结束了,”元大证券投资咨询公司(Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting)的首席经济学家陈 Woods(Woods Chen)表示。“人工智能正在以前所未有的规模推动借贷需求。”根据台湾金融监督管理委员会的数据,7月份台湾银行的贷款总额达到了1.04万亿新台币,今年前七个月的贷款总额已达到4万亿新台币(约合1260亿美元)。无论是企业贷款还是个人贷款,其增长幅度都创下了历史新高。

“The era of cheap money in Taiwan is over,” said Woods Chen, chief economist at Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting. “AI is unleashing borrowing demand on an unprecedented scale.”Taiwan’s banks made a record NT$1.04 trillion in loans in July, bringing the total in the first seven months of the year to NT$4 trillion ($126 billion)according to the Financial Supervisory Commission. Both corporate and consumer loans posted all-time high increases in July.

根据熟悉相关情况的银行人士透露,随着借贷需求的激增,当地银行正将资金投向那些能够提供更高回报或具有良好增长前景的项目。这些银行人士要求匿名,以免泄露敏感信息。

As borrowing demand surges, local banks are steering funds toward deals offering higher returns or promising growth prospects, according to bankers familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. Since June, a key gauge shows the fastest deterioration in market liquidity in about four years.

自6月以来,一项关键指标显示市场流动性出现了约四年来最严重的恶化。企业贷款利率上升了0.90个百分点,而房贷利率则从去年的2.2%攀升至接近3%的水平。

Corporate loan rates have jumped 0.90 percentage point, while mortgage rates have climbed to almost 3%, from as low as 2.2% last year. Consumers and small firms are having a harder time getting crucial loans just as Taiwan is cementing its status as a growing wealth center for global lenders such as UBS Group AG and HSBC Holdings Plc.

在台湾逐渐成为瑞银集团(UBS Group AG)和汇丰银行(HSBC Holdings Plc)等全球金融机构的重要投资目标的背景下,消费者和小企业越来越难以获得所需的贷款。台湾最新的亿万富翁之一是林宗志(Lin Tsung-chi)——他创立的公司最初从事家具制造,如今则专注于为数据中心生产服务器支架。

Among the island’s newest standout billionaires is Lin Tsung-chi, founder of a firm that started out making furniture in the 1980s and now manufactures server rails for data centers. Like many firms in the AI ecosystem, Taiwanese suppliers are burning through cash upfront to meet booming orders from Nvidia Corp. and Microsoft Corp. Companies need fast capital to secure components, build inventory and expand capacity, driving wave after wave of loans, bonds and equity-linked financing at home and abroad.

与人工智能(AI)领域的许多企业一样,台湾供应商也在大量投入资金以满足英伟达(Nvidia Corp.)和微软(Microsoft Corp.)等公司的激增订单。这些企业需要快速获取资金来采购零部件、建立库存并扩大生产能力,因此推动了国内外的贷款、债券和股权融资活动。

A growing number of tech clients are pressing for loan approvals within two months, compared with the typical process that takes up to three months, the bankers said. Taiwan’s tech sector generally presents brighter prospects than traditional exporters, many of which are still recovering from past US tariffs, or property developers hit by the central bank’s campaign to cool housing prices, they said.

银行人士表示,越来越多的科技企业要求在两个月内获得贷款批准(而通常的审批流程需要长达三个月的时间)。他们指出,台湾科技行业的前景普遍优于传统出口企业;许多传统出口企业仍在从过去的美国关税中恢复过来,而房地产开发商则受到了央行调控房价政策的冲击。

The consequences are being seen across the economy, with lenders boosting deposit rates to attract savings and maintain adequate cash levels, while raising borrowing costs broadly to protect margins. Corporate borrowers are paying 50 to 90 basis points more than just a few months ago, according to the bankers.

这种变化正在整个经济体系中显现出来:金融机构纷纷提高存款利率以吸引储蓄,并普遍提高借贷成本以维持自身的利润空间。据银行人士称,企业借款人的贷款利率比几个月前高出50至90个基点;其中一位银行人士还表示,即便是评级最高的优质客户,在申请银团贷款时也需要支付10至20个基点的额外费用。

Even top-rated clients face 10- to 20-basis-point hikes on syndicated loans, one of them said. The banking sector’s average liquidity coverage ratio — a metric of its ability to withstand short-term cash outflows — stood at 115.52% in July, above the 100% regulatory minimum, according to the FSC.

银行业平均流动性覆盖率——衡量银行承受短期现金流出能力的指标——7月达到115.52%,高于100%的监管最低标准,金融监督管理部门表示。与此同时,贷存比已升至72.96%,逼近2020年创下的73.07%前高。

The loan-to-deposit ratio, meanwhile, has climbed to 72.96%, approaching its previous high of 73.07% set in 2020. Smaller businesses shut out of the AI boom are finding the doors to bank credit also closing.

被人工智能热潮挡在门外的中小企业发现,获得银行信贷的大门也正在关闭。据一名银行人士称,某地区银行的土地收购和建筑贷款审批曾每周多达30笔,如今有些周却一笔也没有。该银行实际上已告知部分房地产开发商,暂时根本不必申请贷款。

At one regional bank, land-acquisition and construction loan approvals have gone from as many as 30 a week to zero in some weeks, according to one banker. The lender has effectively told some property developers not to bother applying at all for the time being. Taiwan’s central bank is aware of the rising problems.

台湾央行已经意识到日益严峻的问题。最近,政策制定者维持基准利率不变,并部分放宽了房地产市场管制。央行行长杨金龙呼吁监管机构、政府支持的贷款机构以及台湾最大的存款机构中华邮政公司展开“劝导与协调”,帮助融资困难的中小企业。

Most recently policymakers kept their benchmark rate unchanged and partially eased some housing-market controls. Governor Yang Chin-long called for “persuasion and coordination” among regulators, state-backed lenders as well as Chunghwa Post Co., the island’s largest deposit-taking institution, to help small and medium-sized businesses struggling to secure financing. “The problem is that funding remains unevenly distributed,” Yang said after a rate decision on Sept. 17.

“问题在于,资金分配仍不均衡,”杨金龙在9月17日利率决议后说,“如果一家公司经营状况很好、风险又很低,银行自然会优先向它放贷——这就是商业运作的基本规律。”经济正以强劲势头增长,第二季度同比增长13%。央行最新数据显示,8月未偿房贷余额增长4.6%,达到11.95万亿新台币。

“If a company is doing very well and carries very little risk, banks will naturally prioritize lending to it — that’s simply how business works.”Growth has been barreling ahead, with the economy expanding 13% year-on-year in the second quarter. Outstanding mortgage loans rose 4.6% to NT$11.95 trillion in August, according to the latest data from the central bank.

9月22日,台湾央行一名官员表示当局将与部分贷款机构会面,以进一步了解资金趋紧引发的担忧。这名官员称,现有数据显示银行体系总体上并不存在流动性短缺;他将设法澄清,某些领域的融资困难究竟源于放贷做法,还是更广泛的结构性因素。

On Sept. 22, a Taiwan central bank official said the authority will meet with some lenders to better understand concerns over the funding squeeze. Current data show no overall shortage of liquidity in the banking system, said the official, who will seek to clarify whether financing difficulties in some areas stem from lending practices or broader structural factors.

一些银行在本季度调整了其消费贷款的投向,将贷款重点转向了利润率更高的领域。银行人士表示,由于房地产市场持续低迷,抵押贷款的利润率较低;而无需抵押的个人贷款则越来越受到零售投资者的青睐,这些投资者利用这些贷款来投资股票。

Some banks have shifted their consumer lending mix toward higher-margin areas in the current quarter. Mortgages are burdened by a cooling housing market and offer thinner margins than unsecured personal loans, which are increasingly used by retail traders to invest in stocks, the bankers said.

根据台湾金融监督管理委员会(FSC)的数据,7月份银行向企业和个人提供的用于营运资金(包括股票投资)的贷款总额增加了8230亿新台币,这一增幅几乎是住房贷款增幅的8倍。

Bank loans to companies and individuals for working capital needs, including stock investments, rose by a record NT$823 billion in July — nearly eight times the increase in home-purchase loans, FSC data show.

FSC强调,存款的增长速度仍然快于贷款的增长速度,并表示“目前没有出现任何异常迹象”。该监管机构在回应彭博社的提问时表示:“FSC将继续监测银行的经营状况和资本分配情况,并在必要时采取适当措施。”

The FSC underscored that deposit growth is still outpacing loan growth that it sees “no obvious signs of abnormal conditions.”“The FSC will continue to monitor banks’ operating conditions and capital allocation, and take appropriate action when necessary,” the regulator said in response to questions from Bloomberg.

不过,资金紧张的状况也在整个亚洲贷款市场中产生了影响。据负责该地区的银团贷款业务银行人士称,长期以来,台湾银行一直是那些面临地缘政治风险以及长期高利率压力的借款人的主要资金来源。这些银行现在在开展海外贷款业务时变得更加谨慎,会更加注重交易的盈利能力,有时甚至会选择放弃某些海外贷款项目。

Still, the cash squeeze is also reverberating through Asia’s broader loan market, where Taiwanese banks have long been a key source of funding for borrowers grappling with geopolitical risks and higher-for-longer interest rates, according to syndicated-loan bankers covering the region. The island’s lenders have been pulling back from recent offshore deals, turning more selective based on transactions profitability or sometimes sitting them out altogether, the bankers said. To some this is a luxury problem and may benefit the economy in the long run.

对于一些人来说,这种资金流向某些特定领域的情况可能被视为一种“奢侈现象”(即资金被用于高回报、高效率的领域);但从长远来看,这可能对经济有利。巴克莱银行的经济学家Bumki Son表示:“虽然这种现象看似不平衡,但实际上意味着资源正在流向更具生产力和盈利能力的行业。从另一个角度来看,这有助于减少对低效率行业的投资,并在中期内促进经济结构的调整和生产效率的提升。”

“While this could be seen as an imbalance, it could also be treated as the resources going into more productive and more lucrative sectors,” said Bumki Son, an economist at Barclays Plc. “On a similar note, this helps to reduce investments into unproductive sectors and over a medium-term help to facilitate restructurings and productivity gains.”