作者：Cathy Chan 据高管透露，随着更廉价的融资和定价差距创造出新的投资机会，全球收购巨头PAG和华平投资正加大对中国市场的投入力度。
By Cathy Chan Global buyout firms PAG and Warburg Pincus are leaning harder into China as cheaper financing and pricing gaps create fresh opportunities to put money to work, according to senior executives.
华平投资首席执行官Jeffrey Perlman本周在新加坡举行的SuperReturn大会上表示，中国可能会效仿日本，维持长期低利率政策，因此撤退或分散对该市场的关注将是一个错误。
China may follow a similar policy path as Japan by keeping interest rates low for an extended period, so pulling back or losing focus on the market is a mistake, Jeffrey Perlman, chief executive officer of Warburg Pincus, told the SuperReturn conference in Singapore this week.
“他们将在一定程度上采用日本的策略，中国利率将继续维持低位，”Perlman表示。“这实际上非常有利于开展收购业务。”PAG合伙人兼私募股权联席主管Nikhil Srivastava表示，市场错配也让企业能以更具吸引力的估值收购龙头公司，并给买方留出时间重组公司。这为市场反弹时的估值扩张奠定了基础。
“They’re gonna take a play book a little bit out of Japan and rates are gonna continue to stay low in China,” Perlman said. “That’s actually quite conducive to doing buyouts.”Market dislocation also lets firms buy market leaders at more attractive valuations and gives buyers time to restructure companies. That sets them up for multiple expansion when markets rebound, said Nikhil Srivastava, partner and co-head of private equity at PAG.
Srivastava表示，较低的借贷成本使收购企业能够以约4%的综合成本融资高达收购价的70%，从而实现20%至25%的现金回报。这放大了其投入权益的回报。他补充道，中国“尚未完全走出困境”，但包括人民币升值在内的几项进展正在向有利方向发展。
Lower borrowing costs allow buyout firms to generate cash returns of 20% to 25% by financing as much as 70% of an acquisition at an all-in cost of about 4%. That amplifies returns on the equity they put in, Srivastava said. China is “not out of the woods yet,” but a couple of developments including the strengthening of the yuan are working in its favor, he added.
“随着人民币对美元升值，你实际上是在零增长情境下实现了私募股权式的回报，”Srivastava表示。总部位于香港的PAG是亚洲最大的收购公司之一，管理资产超过600亿美元。
“With the yuan appreciating relative to the dollar, you’re effectively generating those private equity-type returns in a no-growth scenario,” Srivastava said. Hong Kong-based PAG is one of the largest Asia buyout firms, with more than $60 billion in assets under management.
近年来，随着国际出资人对中国经济增速放缓、房地产市场持续低迷以及地缘政治风险上升感到担忧，许多全球知名买方基金已缩减在华投资。美国对外投资限制又增加了一层不确定性，限制了对涉及敏感技术的中国企业的某些投资。尽管如此，2025年下半年市场情绪开始转变，中国股市反弹有助于恢复信心，促使机构重新审视中国市场。
Many global buyout firms have scaled back investment in China in recent years as their international backers grew wary of the slowing economic growth, a prolonged property downturn and rising geopolitical risks. US restrictions on outbound investment have added another layer of uncertainty, limiting certain investments in Chinese companies involved in sensitive technologies. Still, sentiment began to shift in the second half of 2025, as Chinese equities staged a rebound, helping restore confidence and prompting firms to take a fresh look at the market.
“此前缺失的关键要素是估值倍数需要回调修正。我认为这也开始发生了，”管理约1050亿美元资产、总部位于纽约的华平投资合伙人Perlman表示。“我们需要继续努力，希望能利用这一大环境。”华平投资为其中国交易团队制定了一套投资标准：交易必须符合长期政府政策导向，提供足够的控制权以推动价值创造，并提供一条不依赖外资回归、面向国内或战略买家的可信退出路径。Perlman表示，最后一个条件可能需要更长时间才能满足。“可能需要两年，也可能需要五年，”他说道。
“The key element that was missing is valuation multiples needed to course-correct. I think that started to happen as well,” said Perlman, whose New York-based firm runs about $105 billion. “We need to continue to hopefully take advantage of that backdrop.”Warburg Pincus has laid out a set of criteria for its China dealmakers before committing to an investment: deals must align with long-term government policy, provide sufficient control to drive value creation, and offer a credible exit route to domestic or strategic buyers without relying on the return of foreign investors. The last condition may take longer to meet, Perlman said. “It could take two years, it could take five years,” he said.