在悉尼生活了15年的Kris Taute表示，他对新西兰的贫困、不平等以及近期毛利政策的变化感到担忧。
Kris Taute, who has lived in Sydney for 15 years, says he is concerned by poverty, inequality and recent changes to Māori policy in New Zealand.
摄影：Blake Sharp-Wiggins/《卫报》 超过10万名海外选民已登记参加11月的大选，许多人对国内现状感到不满。 新西兰人Kris Taute在澳大利亚生活了15年，但他的心系祖国，即将到来的大选可能受到庞大海外选民群体的影响。
Photograph: Blake Sharp-Wiggins/The Guardian More than 100,000 have enrolled to vote from abroad in the November poll, and many are unhappy with how things look back home ew Zealander Kris Taute has lived in Australia for 15 years, but his head and heart are turning towards his home country and a looming general election that could be influenced by a large block of overseas voters.
隔着塔斯曼海，Taute对新西兰中右翼联合政府日益感到沮丧，分析人士认为，自2023年上台以来，大量离开新西兰的新西兰人可能准备在11月的选票上发泄不满。
From across the Tasman Sea, Taute has felt growing frustration at New Zealand’s centre-right coalition government, and analysts believe large numbers of New Zealanders who have left the country since they came to power in 2023 may be poised to vent their grievances at the ballot box in November.
“我看到许多家庭和朋友陷入贫困，不平等现象严重……这些问题亟待解决，”身为毛利人的Taute告诉《卫报》。他说，政府取消了“相当多的毛利人权利”，这让他深感不安，也是他更有动力参加此次投票的原因。
“I see a lot of poverty among families and friends, and inequality … stuff that needs to be addressed,” Taute, who is Māori, tells the Guardian. He says the government’s removal of “quite a lot of Māori rights” troubles him deeply, and is why he’s more motivated to vote in this election.
Akhil Donthireddy去年搬到墨尔本，此前他在新西兰难以找到工作。这位29岁的年轻人表示，投票让他能塑造想要的未来，他计划投绿党一票。“如果未来前景充满希望，我会考虑搬回去，”他说。
Akhil Donthireddy moved to Melbourne last year after struggling to secure a job in New Zealand. The 29-year-old says voting enables to him to shape a future he wants to see, and he plans to vote for the Green party. “If the outlook for the future is hopeful, then I would consider moving back”, he says.
民调显示，右倾和左倾联盟阵营将展开多年来最激烈的角逐，因此像Taute这样计划投票给工党或Te Pāti Māori（毛利党）的海外新西兰选民，可能有助于决定11月7日的选举结果。
Polls show the right- and left-leaning coalition blocs will fight one of the tightest elections in years, so votes from New Zealanders abroad like Taute – who plans to vote for Labour or Te Pāti Māori (the Māori party) – could help shape the outcome on 7 November.
新西兰人将于11月7日参加大选。目前的民调显示，这将是一场势均力敌的较量。
New Zealanders will vote in the general election on 7 November. Current polls indicate it will be a tightly fought contest.
照片：Fiona Goodall/Getty Images 新西兰统计局估计，约有一百万新西兰人居住在海外。根据选举委员会最新数据，海外选民登记人数正在上升——目前为104,164人——比2023年大选同期激增了60%。
Photograph: Fiona Goodall/Getty Images Stats NZ estimates there are about one million New Zealanders living overseas. Offshore voter enrolments are rising – currently – 104,164 – up a whopping 60% compared to the same point in the 2023 election cycle, according to the latest electoral commission data.
新西兰的海外选票属于一类称为“特别投票”的更大群体。维多利亚大学惠灵顿分校政治学家Lara Greaves表示，特别投票通常倾向于左翼小党。在2023年大选中，特别投票使毛利党和绿党共同获得了三个席位。
New Zealand’s overseas votes form part of a larger group called “special votes”. Special votes typically favour leftwing minor parties, says Lara Greaves, a political scientist at Victoria University of Wellington. In 2023, special votes resulted in Te Pāti Māori and the Greens gaining three seats between them.
Greaves说：“如果我必须猜测这次大选海外选票会投向何方……会投给小党，因为它们都在为新西兰提供另一种愿景，”她补充道，“其中‘很大一部分’会是左倾的。”
“If I had to guess where the overseas vote would go this election … it will go to the minor parties, because they are all offering alternative visions for New Zealand,” Greaves says, adding “a lot of them” would be left-leaning.
她说：“这是传统认知，而这一次我能看到支持这一观点的论据。”
“That’s been the conventional wisdom and I can see an argument for that this time around”, she says.
这将让现任政府陷入危险区域。最新的1News Verian民调显示，两大主要政党支持率均为28%，而绿党支持率飙升至历史最高的16%。其他小党民调支持率均超过了新西兰混合成员比例代表制（MMP）下进入议会所需的5%门槛。
That would place the current government in a danger zone. The latest 1News Verian poll shows support for the two major parties at 28% each, and the Greens surging to their highest ever result of 16%. Other minor parties are polling above the 5% threshold of seats needed to enter parliament under New Zealand’s mixed member proportional (MMP) system.
如果主要政党得票不足以组建政府，小党就可能成为“造王者”，掌握决定谁将执政的权力。
If major parties do not get enough votes to form a government, minor parties can become “kingmakers”, with the power to decide who will govern.
Tracey Lee负责运营“每一张新西兰选票都算数”这一非党派倡议，旨在鼓励海外投票。鉴于民调如此胶着，Lee认为海外选票“确实可能产生影响”，且“零点几个百分点就可能成为决定性因素”，她表示。
Tracey Lee runs Every Kiwi Vote Counts a non-partisan initiative to encourage overseas voting. With the polls so close, Lee believes overseas votes can “legitimately have an impact” and “a fraction of a percentage point can become a decider,” she says.
作为这一不断壮大的海外投票群体重要性的标志，主要政党领袖将于下月在一场虚拟市政厅会议上直接面向海外新西兰人发言——这在新西兰尚属首次。
In a sign of how important that growing overseas voting bloc is, leaders of the prominent political parties will speak to offshore New Zealanders directly in a virtual town hall next month – a first for the country.
澳大利亚是新西兰侨民最大的聚居地，且这一数字近年来激增，新西兰公民跨越塔斯曼海移居澳大利亚的人数创下历史新高，许多人是为了逃避疲软的劳动力市场、停滞的经济和高昂的生活成本。自2023年大选以来，约有7.4万名新西兰人选择移居澳大利亚，加上此前已有的约60万新西兰侨民。
Record exodus Australia is home to the biggest NZ diaspora. Those numbers have surged in recent years as NZ experienced record high departures of its citizens across the Tasman, many escaping a weak labour market, sluggish economy and high living costs. About 74,000 chose to move to Australia since the 2023 election adding to the roughly 600,000 New Zealanders already living there.
李（Lee）表示，一些人离开是因为这似乎是“他们寻找工作和积累经验的唯一选择”。“他们很想回国，而投票是确保自己能参与建设一个值得回归的家园的一种方式。”
Some left because it seemed to be “the only option available to them to find work and experience”, Lee says. “They’d love to come home and voting is a way to ensure they’re part of making it a place they can come home to.”
格里夫斯（Greaves）指出，存在一群不满的选民，他们因看不到在国内的未来而离开。“现在移居海外的这批人中，很有可能有一大部分人对政府的所作所为持强烈反对态度，甚至怀有怨恨情绪。”
Greaves says there is a disgruntled bloc of voters who left the country because they could not see a future for themselves“There is a possibility that a good chunk of that bigger group that have now moved overseas are quite oppositional or quite opposed to what the government has been doing and do feel a level of spite.”Australian-based voters told the Guardian of their desire to retain their voice in New Zealand’s election – either to help their families, or to shape the country for their possible return Onkar Singh has lived in Melbourne for more than 20 years and while he has no plans to return to New Zealand, he wants to keep the option open. Singh did not wish to disclose who he would vote for but said members of his New Zealand-Punjabi community “were happy with the current government”.
旅居澳大利亚的选民向《卫报》表示，他们希望保留在新西兰大选中的发声权——要么是为了帮助家人，要么是为了塑造国家未来以便日后可能回国。奥卡·辛格（Onkar Singh）在墨尔本生活了20多年，虽然没有回新西兰的计划，但他希望保留这一选项。辛格不愿透露将投票给谁，但表示他所在的新西兰旁遮普社区成员“对现任政府感到满意”。
Onkar Singh moved to Australia in 2005 with his family for education and job opportunities and is now a dual citizen of both NZ and Australia.
奥卡·辛格于2005年随家人为求学和就业机会移居澳大利亚，现已是新西兰和澳大利亚的双重公民。
Photograph: Christopher Hopkins/The Guardian Most of those the Guardian spoke with, however, would be voting for change.
图片：Christopher Hopkins/The Guardian 然而，《卫报》采访的大多数人表示将投变革一票。
For Melbourne-based lawyer, Joseph Nunweek, a move back to New Zealand is likely. Despite living in Australia since 2014, he feels a responsibility to vote for policies that would support his family and community back home, particularly in healthcare, renewable energy and foreign policy. “Washing your hands of [the election] is not really an option,” he says.
对于在墨尔本执业的律师约瑟夫·纳恩维克来说，搬回新西兰的可能性很大。尽管自2014年以来一直生活在澳大利亚，但他感到有责任投票支持有利于国内家人和社区的政策，特别是在医疗、可再生能源和外交政策方面。“对[大选]置之不理并非真正的选择，”他说。李认为，居住在海外的“庞大选民群体”不应再被忽视。
Lee argues the “mega-electorate” living abroad should no longer be ignored.
“我们自1956年起就拥有[海外]投票权，但这略受冷遇：‘你走了，这不关你的事’是不成文的规则，”她说。“但……民主只有在我们所有人都参与其中时才能运作。”
“We’ve had the right to vote [overseas] since 1956, but it’s slightly frowned upon: ‘you left, it’s not your business’ is the unwritten rule,” she says. “But … democracy only works if we are all part of it.”