伊斯坦布尔——在乌兹别克斯坦宣布聘请黑岩集团(BlackRock)协助建设其金融中心后,中亚各国争夺外国投资的竞争愈演愈烈。不过分析人士指出,由于治理结构薄弱以及市场流动性不足,部分投资者可能会望而却步。
ISTANBUL -- Central Asia's race for foreign investment is intensifying after Uzbekistan said it enlisted BlackRock to help establish its financial center, though weak governance and illiquid markets may keep some investors at bay, analysts say. The U.S. asset manager will assist in developing "the concept and structure" of the Tashkent International Financial Centre, Saida Mirziyoyeva, the Uzbek president's elder daughter who was appointed TIFC governor, was quoted as saying in a government statement.
据乌兹别克斯坦总统的长女赛达·米尔齐约耶娃(Saida Mirziyoyeva)在政府声明中表示,黑岩集团将协助制定塔什干国际金融中心(Tashkent International Financial Centre, TIFC)的运营模式与相关规章制度。
Due to open in 2027, TIFC aims to attract $20 billion to $25 billion in new investment by 2030.
塔什干国际金融中心计划于2027年正式启用,目标是在2030年前吸引200亿至250亿美元的新投资。此前,面积较小的吉尔吉斯斯坦已于7月在伊塞克湖(Lake Issyk-Kul)畔设立了塔姆奇特别金融投资区(Tamchy Special Financial Investment Territory, Tamchy SFIT)。
Uzbekistan's move comes after Kyrgyzstan, a much smaller country, opened its Special Financial Investment Territory in Tamchy (Tamchy SFIT) on the shore of Lake Issyk-Kul in July. But TIFC's closest competitor will be Kazakhstan's Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), which opened in 2018 and has 6,300 companies from over 90 countriesed in its ecosystem.
塔什干国际金融中心的最大竞争对手是哈萨克斯坦的阿斯塔纳国际金融中心(Astana International Financial Centre, AIFC)——该中心成立于2018年,目前已有来自90多个国家的6300家企业在其中开展业务。
These emerging economies are attracting investors as can be seen from the interest in Uzbekistan's sale of part of its national investment fund, UzNIF, in an initial public offering in May.
这些新兴经济体正吸引着大量投资者;这一点从乌兹别克斯坦今年5月出售其国家投资基金(UzNIF)部分股份时的情况便可看出:该基金的IPO募资额远超预期,黑岩集团、富兰克林资源公司(Franklin Resources)和Redwheel公司均成为了基石投资者。然而,这些国家仍缺乏国际投资者所熟悉的法律框架和公司治理机制。
The IPO was oversubscribed and drew BlackRock, Franklin Resources and Redwheel as cornerstone investors. Yet the countries lack the legal frameworks and corporate governance processes to which institutional investors are accustomed.
塔什干与塔姆奇都表示,它们的特殊经济区将遵循英国普通法进行运作;塔什干国际金融中心甚至将设立自己的法院和监管机构,不过这些机构的设立方案很可能会由赛达·米尔齐约耶娃提出——这属于她作为该中心负责人的职责范围。
Both Tashkent and Tamchy have said they will operate their special zones under English common law.
总部位于哈萨克斯坦阿拉木图(Almaty)的金融分析师拉苏尔·雷斯曼贝托夫(Rassul Rysmambetov)将这些特殊经济区称为“内陆离岸”司法管辖区。他认为,改革一个国家的整个司法体系与监管机构需要很长时间;而较小的特殊经济区则能够集中专业人才并制定更为明确的规则,从而为投资者提供更加稳定的投资环境。
TIFC will even have its own court and regulator, albeit one likely to be recommended by Saida Mirziyoyeva, which is a duty of hers as governor. Rassul Rysmambetov, a financial analyst based in the Kazakh city of Almaty, calls such zones "inland offshore" jurisdictions.
乌兹别克斯坦总统沙夫卡特·米尔济约耶夫的女儿还负责任命塔什干国际金融中心(TIFC)金融中心管理局的执行董事及其副手。乌兹别克斯坦投资顾问法尔霍德容·伊斯拉伊洛夫表示,法律将她的协调角色与独立的监管机构和法院分离开来,并指出检验这一制度的关键在于“能否尽早做出公正、透明且不偏袒关系户的裁决”。
Reforming an entire state's courts and regulators takes time, he said, while a smaller zone concentrates skilled staff and clearer rules in one place, giving investors a more predictable point of entry. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev's daughter is also in charge of appointing the executive director and deputies of the Financial Centre Administration at TIFC.
阻碍机构投资的其他因素还包括缺乏可投资的公司以及上市股票流动性不足。根据塔什干证券交易所6月底的数据,该交易所总市值达355亿美元,但可自由交易的股票价值仅约6.12亿美元。
Farkhodjon Israilov, an Uzbek investment consultant, said the law separates her coordinating role from the independent regulator and court, and that the test will be "early, visible rulings that don't simply favor well-connected parties." The other factors that may hinder institutional investment are the lack of companies to invest in and the illiquidity of listed stocks.
该交易所的主要指数在8月份翻了一番多,但其中一些最大的涨幅来自自由流通股极少的公司。AFC乌兹别克斯坦基金首席投资官斯科特·奥舍罗夫向《日经亚洲》透露,国有天然气管道运营商Uztransgaz在仅成交134股、成交额仅为4268美元的情况下,股价飙升了546%。
Only about $612 million of shares can be traded freely in the Tashkent stock market, which is worth $35.5 billion, based on the exchange's figures at the end of June. The main index more than doubled in August, but some of its biggest gains came in companies with tiny free floats.
Avesta投资集团经纪业务主管阿诺德·沃多夫金表示:“大型基金如果投入100万至200万美元,必然会‘破坏’订单簿。”他补充说,许多上市公司的国有持股比例高达95%至99%。雷斯曼别托夫也认同市场流动性不足是一个问题。
Uztransgaz, the state gas pipeline operator, jumped 546% after just 134 shares were traded on turnover of only $4,268, Scott Osheroff, chief investment officer of the AFC Uzbekistan Fund, told Nikkei Asia. "A large fund simply cannot come in with a ticket of $1 million to $2 million without 'breaking' the order book," said Arnold Vdovkin, head of brokerage at Avesta Investment Group, adding that the state holds 95% to 99% of many listed companies. Rysmambetov agreed that the illiquid market is an issue.
他说:“制约因素在于缺乏可投资、可融资的公司,缺乏可靠的项目,以及投资者买入后难以交易的证券。”
"The constraint is the supply of investable, bankable companies, credible projects and securities that investors can trade after buying them," he said.
托管基础设施的缺失、与欧洲清算银行(Euroclear)或明讯银行(Clearstream)——即负责跨境交易清算和结算的存管机构——缺乏直接联系,以及缺乏对冲货币风险的工具,也为一些机构投资者设置了障碍。
Gaps in custody infrastructure, a lack of direct links to Euroclear or Clearstream -- depositaries that clear and settle cross-border trades -- and few tools to hedge currency risk also present stumbling blocks for some institutional investors.
沃多夫金表示:“以英国法律为基础建立TIFC是必要的最低要求,但仅凭这一点并不能促成交易。”
"Creating TIFC on the basis of English law is the necessary minimum, but on its own it does not generate deals," Vdovkin said.
尽管如此,该券商负责人告诉《日经亚洲评论》,其公司的外资账户较去年翻倍至近600个,自5月以来外资客户占其成交量约60%,他将此归功于UzNIF(乌兹别克斯坦国家投资基金)的推出。
Nonetheless, the brokerage head told Nikkei Asia that foreign accounts at his firm have doubled to almost 600 from last year, and foreign clients made up about 60% of its turnover since May, which he attributed to the UzNIF offering.
目前,阿斯塔纳仍比塔什干更具优势,特别是对于在哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯开展业务或在海外融资的公司而言,不过奥舍罗夫表示,尚未在那里注册的投资者“很可能会认真考虑TIFC(塔什干国际金融中心)”。塔姆奇则远远落后于其两个较大的邻国。
For now, Astana still holds the edge over Tashkent, particularly for companies doing business in Kazakhstan and Russia or raising capital abroad, though investors not yet incorporated there "are likely to seriously consider TIFC," Osheroff said. Tamchy is much further behind its bigger neighbors.
AIFC(阿斯塔纳国际金融中心)表示,其参与者在2025年吸引了66亿美元投资,较前一年近乎翻倍。但雷斯马姆别托夫称,该中心不能独享这份扩张的功劳,他将其归因于诱人的收益率、信用质量、大宗商品板块的前景以及低税制。
AIFC said its participants attracted $6.6 billion of investment in 2025, nearly doubling from the year before. But Rysmambetov said the center cannot claim sole credit for the expansion, which he attributed to attractive yields, credit quality, prospects in the commodities sector and the low tax regime.
在债券市场上,哈萨克斯坦债务属于投资级,而乌兹别克斯坦则为高收益评级。8月,标普全球评级将哈萨克斯坦主权债务评级从BBB-上调至BBB。该机构将乌兹别克斯坦债务评级定在BB,比投资级低两个等级。
In the bond markets, Kazakh debt is investment grade, compared with Uzbekistan's high-yield rating. In August, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Kazakhstan's sovereign debt to a BBB rating from BBB-. The agency rates Uzbek debt two notches below investment grade at BB.
分析师表示,TIFC的成败最终取决于国际托管机构、全球投资银行以及领先的律师事务所和审计事务所是否在那里设立全职办公室。TIFC希望凭借至2076年的大幅减税优惠吸引它们入驻。
TIFC's success ultimately depends on whether international custodians, global investment banks and leading law and audit firms open full offices there, analysts said. TIFC hopes to draw them in with major tax breaks until 2076.
塔姆奇宣称为合格活动提供为期49年的更广泛零税制,并在启动时签约了五家外资公司。吉尔吉斯斯坦总统扎帕罗夫的目标是到2035年达到3900家驻区企业,而其经济体量不足哈萨克斯坦的10%。
Tamchy advertises a broader zero-tax regime for qualifying activities for 49 years and signed up five foreign companies at launch. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov is targeting 3,900 resident companies by 2035 in an economy less than 10% the size of Kazakhstan's.
“实事求是地说,该地区一个金融中心就足够了,”奥舍罗夫说。“当然,附近还有阿拉伯联合酋长国,这些金融中心都是仿照其模式建立的。”两个中心的数据显示,截至6月的一年里,迪拜金融中心新增2318家公司,多于阿斯塔纳2025年新增的约1400家。
"Realistically, a single financial center in the region should be sufficient," Osheroff said. "There is, of course, also the [United Arab Emirates] nearby, which these financial centers are modeled on." Dubai's financial center added 2,318 companies in the year to June, more than the roughly 1,400 Astanaed in 2025, figures from the two centers show.
雷西姆别托夫引用了另一个关键指标:“真正的考验在于成功的做法是否能推广到更广泛的经济领域,而不仅仅局限于一个小飞地,”他说。叶夫根尼娅·米哈伊利季是特约撰稿人。
Rysmambetov cited another crucial metric: "The real test is whether successful practices spread into the wider economy, rather than remaining confined to a small enclave," he said. Yevgeniya Mikhailidi is a contributing writer.