作者：Winnie Hsu 和 Julia Zhong中国长期存在的“双速经济”正在导致其金融市场出现越来越大的分化：本月股票和债券收益率跌至一年多来的最低点，而人民币汇率却持续走强。
By Winnie Hsu and Julia Zhong China’s longstanding two-speed economy is creating ever greater divergence in its financial markets, with stocks and bond yields sinking to more than one-year lows this month while the yuan has powered higher.
市场正日益将疲软的国内经济与具有韧性的出口部门区分开来。这种不断加深的分化与去年同期的市场叙事形成了鲜明对比，当时股票、债券和人民币的同步上涨曾激发了人们的乐观情绪，认为中国正在摆脱“不可投资”的标签。
Markets are increasingly drawing a distinction between a weak domestic economy and a resilient export sector. This deepening divergence stands in sharp contrast to the narrative that took hold this time last year, when gains in stocks, bonds and the yuan fueled optimism that China was shedding its “uninvestable” label.
法国巴黎资产管理公司（BNP Paribas Asset Management）驻伦敦的基金经理 Sophie Huynh 表示：“市场出现了脱节，这主要是由于中国持续存在的双速经济所致。”她指出，中国股市反映了国内需求的疲软，“消费低于政策目标，房地产市场依然是拖累因素。”
“There has been a disconnect, mostly due to the ongoing Chinese two-speed economy,” said Sophie Huynh, a fund manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management in London. Chinese stocks reflect weak domestic demand, “with consumption below policy targets and property still a drag,” she said.
她补充道：“另一方面，得益于强劲的贸易顺差、人民币国际化以及资本流入，自今年年初以来，人民币汇率已完全脱离了利率差的影响。”
“On the other side, the Chinese renminbi has totally disconnected from interest-rate differentials since the start of the year, thanks to the firm trade surplus, yuan internationalization and capital inflows,” she added.
基准沪深300指数今年已累计下跌约6%，而随着投资者对房地产、消费支出和许多传统行业等关键经济领域疲软迹象做出反应，债券收益率也随之下跌。与此同时，在强劲出口的支撑下，人民币兑美元汇率已攀升至三年多来的最高水平。
The benchmark CSI 300 Index has now lost about 6% in 2026, while bond yields have tumbled as investors respond to signs of weakness in key areas of the economy, including property, consumer spending and many traditional industries. The yuan meanwhile has climbed to its strongest level against the dollar in more than three years supported by robust exports.
许多投资者开始认为这种分化将持续下去。市场对消费、房地产和私营部门活动出现全面反弹的信心依然有限，特别是在北京方面最新的刺激措施以及本月美国总统唐纳德·特朗普与中国国家主席习近平会晤的结果均不及预期的情况下。近期数据显示，尽管消费支出和投资依然低迷，但8月份出口增长却有所加快，这一事实也印证了上述观点。
Many investors are coming to the view that the divergence will persist. Confidence in any broad rebound in consumption, property and private-sector activity remains limited, especially as Beijing’s latest stimulus measures and the outcome of this month’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping fell short of expectations. That view is supported by recent data showing export growth accelerated in August, even as consumer spending and investment languished.
CSI 300指数是今年表现最差的主要股票指数之一，尽管受益于全球人工智能热潮的市场普遍上涨。韩国的Kospi指数和台湾的Taiex指数在此期间均上涨了超过60%。
The CSI 300 Index is among the worst-performing major equity benchmarks this year, even as markets benefiting from the global artificial-intelligence boom have surged. South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s Taiex have both gained more than 60% during the period.
Reed Capital Partners是那些减持中国股票仓位的投资者之一。
Reed Capital Partners is among the investors that are underweight on Chinese shares.
该公司位于新加坡的首席投资官Gerald Gan表示：“中国政府今年多次承诺会提振经济，但实际取得的增长效果非常微弱。今年以来，我们的投资组合表现一直受到中国股市表现不佳的影响；我们对此已经失去了耐心，尤其是与美国股市的持续强劲表现相比。”美国银行最近的一项调查显示，基金经理们仍然对中国的股票市场持悲观态度，将中国列为他们最不看好的亚洲市场之一。
“The government has vowed several times this year to boost the economy, but the marginal gains have been quite anemic,” said Gerald Gan, chief investment officer at the firm in Singapore. “Our portfolio performance has been dragged down by our China exposure so far this year, and we have run out of patience for the time being, particularly when compared with the continued strength in US equities.”A recent Bank of America survey showed that fund managers remain underweight on Chinese equities, ranking the nation as one of their least favored Asian markets.
与此同时，交易者们纷纷涌入中国国债市场，这表明他们预计中国经济将持续疲软。
Meanwhile, traders are piling into Chinese government bonds, in a sign that they foresee prolonged economic softness.
本周，中国10年期国债的收益率降至约1.66%，创下自去年7月以来的新低；而30年期国债期货的未平仓合约数量在周三飙升至历史新高。
China’s 10‑year bond yields dropped to around 1.66% this week, their lowest level since July last year, while open interest in 30-year bond futures surged to a record high on Wednesday.
法国Natixis SA驻香港的亚太策略师Dayeon Hong指出：“从宏观数据来看，即使在低收益率的环境下，企业借款需求依然低迷，这反映出人们对国内经济活动的极度悲观态度，这种情绪目前已在金融市场中得到体现。”今年，人民币是亚洲对美元表现最好的货币，且正迎来连续第七个季度的升值。
“Looking at the macro data, the lack of borrowing demand, even in such a low-yield environment, stands out,” said Dayeon Hong, an Asia-Pacific strategist at Natixis SA in Hong Kong. “This indicates extremely weak sentiment regarding domestic economic activity, a reality currently reflected in the financial markets.”The yuan is Asia’s best-performing currency against the dollar this year and is heading for a seventh straight quarterly gain.
人民币也在兑其他亚洲货币时持续升值。根据彭博社发布的CFETS人民币指数（该指数追踪人民币兑中国25个贸易伙伴货币的汇率），人民币今年已经升值了超过5%。
It is also appreciating against a basket of its peers. A Bloomberg replica of the CFETS RMB Index, which tracks the yuan against 25 currencies of China’s trading partners, has gained more than 5% this year.
“人民币的升值与强劲的出口表现、外汇储备的快速增加以及海外华人资本回流中国密切相关，”香港对冲基金Lotus Asset Management的首席投资官郝宏表示。
“The strengthening of the yuan is related to strong exports, rapid forex reserve buildup and overseas Chinese capital flowing back to China,” said Hao Hong, chief investment officer at hedge fund Lotus Asset Management in Hong Kong.
人民币的升值已经开始引起中央银行的关注。根据中国人民银行上周发布的一份声明，该机构表示希望“防止外汇市场中的‘羊群效应’以及非理性预期的自我强化”。
The yuan’s gains are starting to concern the central bank. The People’s Bank of China said it wants to “prevent the ‘herd effect’ and the self-reinforcement of irrational expectations” in the foreign-exchange market, according to a statement issued last week.